Thursday, February 21, 2008

烂区春未到,好区抢到爆 (ZT)

This is talking about SSF/San Jose.

用十个字来形容市场就是:烂区春未到,好区抢到爆。
用十个字来形容seller和buyer就是:很黄很暴力,很晕很无奈。


。。。无语啊无语。估计原因有五:
1.由于贷款利率的下调和对通涨的担心,很多人决定当断则断。
2.去年冬天以来的低inventory让很多人憋坏了,据说春天历来hot。
3.去年转战股市的可能今年都进入房市了。
4.刚需。看到很多小孩子,还有的说“i want this house”,我靠,me too。。
5.都疯了。

我相信这些地方比起所谓的房市高点(2005?)高出30%不止了。早买早超生压,我靠。

形势很惨很严峻。到底这是新一波主升浪的开始,还是主力发力派筹阶段,我不得不说
:这个市场没人能操纵,job不倒,它们不倒。

Friday, February 8, 2008

Scripps Ranch

Scripps Ranch算是inland, 15号公路的东边, Marine Corps Air Station Miramar以北,Poway以南。 区号92131. 以前是报业大亨Scripps拥有,大概1200亩地。

大概有百分之15的亚裔居住在这里。

曾经在03年10月被山火烧掉很多房子。 大概300家。

Scripps Ranch盛产一种很特别的树,叫Eucalyptus trees。



小学:

中学:

Wangenheim Middle School (6-8)

Thurgood Marshall Middle School (6-8)

Scripps Ranch High School (9-12)


Scripps Ranch大概分为几个区。 一个是Pomerado以南。房子有新有旧。新的都是03年山火之后盖起来。Pomerado北是70年代的老房子居多。有的后院巨大lot也很大。在Pomerado和Spring Canyon之间有一些房子基本上80年代的,Spring Canyon北面一些房子基本上更新一些。房子大点但是地比较小。Pomerado以东是Stonebridge的新房子。那些新房子很over priced.


Monday, February 4, 2008

Check this out

RottenNeighbor.com

A rotten neighbor could be another reason that you pass that house!

Friday, February 1, 2008

Poll: Where You Want to Live

Miami might be a nice place to visit, but only 3 percent of those polled by Zogby International would like to live there.

San Francisco led the pack among cities where people would like to live with 13 percent saying they would move there if they could. It was followed by Chicago, Orlando, New York, Las Vegas, and Houston.

The national poll, which was focused on Miami, rated the city’s high and low points and compared it with other major cities in the nation.

About 42 percent of those polled had visited Miami, but they ranked the city sixth out of eight major American cities as a vacation destination. The first choice was San Francisco, garnering 19 percent of the sentiment. Orlando came in second with 14 percent choosing it.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Fed cut rate again

Is that a good thing? I doubt it...

Thursday, January 24, 2008

REFINANCE的机会来了

最近MORTGAGE RATE 持续下跌,不少房子都有了REFINANCE 的机会,尤其是COMFORMING BALANCE LOAN (i.e. LOAN VALUE < 417K)

现在COMFORMING BALANCE MORTGAGE RATE 大概是

30 YEAR: 5.3%

15 YEAR: 4.8%

JUMBO LOAN (> 417K ) MORTGAGE RATE 没有什么大的变化,所以REFINANCE的余地不大。

但是不是所有的COMFORMING MORTGAGE 都IN A POSITION TO REFINANCE,最近的房价下滑PLAY A ROLE HERE。假设你两年前买了一个50万的房子,贷了40万,利率是6%,现在利率是5.3%,理论上应该可以去REFI. However, 如果现在房子的价格跌了,目前只值45万,你的贷款总额大概还有39万,这时候,你的LTV RATIO (LOAN-TO-VALUE) = 39/45, 大于80%,所以你还是拿不到5.3%, 大概还是靠近6%。

所以考虑REFINANCE的时候,一样要考虑房子的价格。

另外,如果能REFINANCE的话,我建议尽量采用ZERO COST REFINANCE,因为MORTGAGE RATE可能还会进一步下滑,有再一次REFINANCE的机会,这样做的时候,要MAKE SURE, THERE IS NO PREPAYMENT PENALTY.

Saturday, January 12, 2008

Carmel mountain ranch updates

I'll update it when/if any of the make it to escrow

Carriage Run:

1)MLS 071091971 listed 11/30/2007

11371 BLACK COLT LANE

$823,875/ 1985 sqft

Saratoga:

1) MLS 071089870/ listed 11/19/2007

5108 GREAT MEADOW DRIVE

$1,047,250/ 2724 sqft

2)086002322 listed 1/8/2008

5274 FOXBOROUGH PT

$1,150,000 /2769 sqft

There are two sale by builder in Derby Hill right now.

First, a plan 2 at 3800+ sf for $1.59-1.69M.
Second, a plan 1 at 3500+ sf for $1.299M (FSBO still avail as of today (1/13)).

These will be the first resales for Derby Hill so it will be interesting to see what happens. Neither house is on a canyon but both seem to have nice upgrades. I think the higher-priced one is way off base.

There are two resales in Saratoga right now.

Foxborough Pt as you indicated above.
107007 Heather Ridge for $1.1-1.25M at 2700+ sf.

These both back-up to Carmel Mtn. Road but have large lots. I know that there are a lot of buyers that would never live in a house backing up to a main road. Great Meadow is a brand new Pardee home, not a resale. A neighbor told me that at least one of the Saratoga models is still available for sale. I thought they were all sold but maybe it fell out of escrow?

I don't know Carriage Run very well.

Pardee is releasing another phase of Derby Hill next Sat. (1/19). They had no problem selling out the last phase in December. It seems that Pardee is pretty confident right now since they are busy trying to get the new models for Bridle Ridge (I think that's what they are calling it?) out by March. This new one is across the street from Saratoga and partly down at the end of Carmel Mtn. Road. It will be interesting to see their initial pricing on those. I believe their size is comparable to Saratoga.

If these resales do close near their listing prices, it shows that some people are still making money on San Diego real estate!!

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

有关贷款的入门讲解(转载)

这个讲解写的相当详细。 希望对第一次买房的朋友们有用。

Mortgage type
总的来讲,Mortgage 有两种,一种是fixed payment, 一种是 ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage)

Fixed payment, 顾名思义,就是每个月的payment是固定的。常见的有30年和15年的两种(20年和40年的也有,但不多见)。我们还用刚才那个例子,假设这个贷款40万的人用的是30年Fixed, 利率是6.25%,那他每个月的mortgage payment 就是$2,462.87,每个月你都交这个数目,直至付清,假如他每个月都正好付$2,462.87的话,他的mortgage 就会在30年的时候还清。一般来说,15年的rate 要比30年要略低(大概低0.25%-0.5%左右),不过由于周期短,所以monthly payment 会高一些。因此,采用15年Mortgage的一般是富人,就刚才那个例子,如果其他不变,换成15年6%,monthly payment 就会是$3375.43,这样15年就付清了。

ARM,这种类型的mortgage, 每个月的payment 是不固定的,它会跟随某种benchmark rate (一般是LIBOR rate)上下浮动。一般常见的ARM是一种叫Hybrid ARM 的, 这种ARM的前一小部分时间的rate是固定的,过了那个阶段之后rate就是浮动的啦。银行为了促销ARM, 往往offer的初始固定rate 会比30年甚至15年fixed 要低,俗称teaser rate。这初始固定rate的周期一般是3年或是5年(也有1年,7年或10年的)。过了这段初始时间后,rate 一般每年adjust 一次,所以一般缩写成3/1 ARM, 5/1 ARM, etc. 举个例子来阐述一下,假设一个3/1 ARM 头三年的teaser rate是5.75%,以后是LIBOR+200bps,按照这个条例,头三年你每个月付$2334.29 。过了三年,你的利率就变成浮动的,LIBOR rate + 2%。假如当时LIBOR rate 是5%,在未来的一年里你就要按照7%来付monthly payment,就会比$2334.29高出不少。当然,如果LIBOR rate 是3%,你就只需要按照5%付就可以了。rate 每年按照当时的LIBOR rate调整一次, 直至mortgage 付清。我们可以看到采用ARM 就会一定的风险,monthly payment 可能会有很大的上下浮动。

Mortgage Amortization
Mortgage 的本金和利息的计算方法与一般的借贷不太一样,有必要阐述一下。要弄明白这个问题,我们先要介绍两个概念:Prepayment and Curtailment。一般来说,你向银行借钱买房,做为mortgage 的 borrower, 你会有一个option,这个option 赋予了你随时随刻可以多付甚至全付清mortgage的权利。如果你在到期之前全付清的话,就是prepayment, 如果你只是每月多付一些的话,就叫curtailment (又叫partial prepayment)。值得提一下的是,在少数的mortgage agreement 里,可能会有prepayment penalty, 规定如果3年内,或是5年内prepay 的话,就会有penalty, 这个细节在申请mortgage 的时候要当心。
现在我们用一个例子来说明这个Mortgage Amortization.
假设一个30年mortgage,amount 40万,利率6%, 根据公式每个月的payment 是$2398.20。这个$2398.20是由两部分组成的,一部分是principal pay down (本金), 第二部分是interest (利息)。让我们先来看第一个月,beginning balance 是$400,000, 所以要付的月利息就是$400,000*(0.06/12)= $2000. 所以呢,你交的钱中,$2000 是利息,$398.20 是本金,下个月的beginning balance 就变成($400,000-$398.2)= $399,601.80. 当然如果你说我这个月有点闲钱,我想多付一些(curtailment),结果你多付了$250, 那下个月的beginning balance 就会是($399,601.80-$250) = $399,351.80。然后呢,第二个月scheduled payment 还是$2398.20,但是你利息变成了$399,351.80×(0.06/12)= $1996.76. 本金就变成 ($2398.20-$1996.76) = $401.44.


尽管每个月的scheduled payment 不变,但是本金和利息的比重在变化。可以说,一开始的payment 几乎全是利息,但是利息的比例会随着时间的推移越来越小,相反, 本金的比例越来越大。

影响Mortgage Rate 的因素
当然,说到最后,大家最关心的还是Mortgage Rate, 大家都希望拿到一个低的Mortgage Rate。让我们来看看哪些因素会影响Mortgage Rate 呢
1. Mortgage Type: 一般来说,15年的利率比30年要低,ARM起始的teaser rate 比Fixed Payment 的要低。
2. LTV Ratio (Loan-To-Value Ratio), 就是拿你的Loan Amount 除以你房子的价值。小于80%的(换句话讲,down payment 超过20%)的,rate 会低一些。超过80%的,除了利率会高,一般还会被要求交额外的Mortgage Insurance。
3. Income Ratio: 是指monthly mortgage payment 除以 monthly income, income 可以是 before tax (front ratio) 或是 after tax (back ratio). 这个ratio 最好不要超过28% (before taxor) 或是 36% (after tax)。
4. Loan Amount:美国政府规定了一个conforming balance, 目前这个值定在了$417,000。Mortgage amount 超过这个的利率会高, 反之则会低。一般来说,这个值两三年会被调整一次。
5. Credit Score:比较广泛采用的是FICO score, 一般来说,FICO 高于660的就还OK,高于720就属于比较好的credit。低于600的就是所谓的subprime mortgage, 利率就会要比>720高很多。
6. Documentation: 这个指的是你能提供的银行证明,收入证明等等,你要是能提供所有的文件,你的利率就低。反之,假如你是self employed, 你提供不了稳定的收入证明,你的利率就会高一些。

当然利率还跟很多其他因素有关,比方说房子的类型啊,你买房是投资还是居住等等有关,但是那些不是主导因素,我就不再一一叙述了。

Saturday, December 22, 2007

透视Closting costs

看房子辛辛苦苦的看了大半天,总算相中了一个,给了offer, 接受了。做了inspection也没啥问题。 恭喜你! 现在房子要close了,你的agent和贷款公司哗啦哗啦的扔给你了一摞文件,数字一列又一列,看得你直晕菜。 今天我们就来透视一下Closing Costs. 让你明明白白清清楚楚的close。

Closing costs分为4大部分:

一是和贷款相关的收费:包含有origination fee, loan points, credit report fee, appraisal, application fee, mortgage broker fee, processing fee, underwriting fee, wire transfer fee, assumption fee等等。 在这里需要注意的是虽然有些lender的利率很低,但是把买point的钱打在closing cost里, 或者巧立名目收一些杂费,这样实际的费用反而高出利率高一些的lender。所以找lender的时候不能光盯着哪家的rate最低。个人认为以现在的市场来看,还是以low cost的为上策, 因为利率下滑的可能性还是很大的。

第二是围绕title的收费: 一般来讲这一部分都是估算的。包含有settlement or closing fee, title search, title examination, title insurance, document preparation fee, notary fee, attorney fee等等。因为这部分的费用是由Title公司来收费,他们收费项目和标准都有所不同, 所以费用会有所差别。 如果你想要一个比较准确的数字的话,可以给Title公司打电话让他们估算closing fee 和title insurance。 (Title insurance是为了保护买方对于property title的拥有权,主要是针对关于title可能存在的争议。)

第三是与Record & Transfer 相关的费用,用来负责county的recording fee, local tax/ stamps 和state tax stamps。和第二项一样,这一项也是估算的,到时候实际发生是多少就收多少。有时候贷款公司会把这些费用和第二项title charges合并在一起通称为第三方收费(third party charges)。因为这些费用并不是由贷款公司来决定,所以千万不要被有些贷款公司低估的"third party charges"所误导。

第四项也是最后一部分是预交费用(Prepaid):包括足月开始前的贷款利息, 一年的房屋保险金以及property tax, flood ins, school tax等等贷款公司要收取的押金。利息是从close那天开始计算的。比如12月21号close, 就收21号到1月1号的利息。 另外,贷款公司会一次性预收一年的保险费或者放在月付里面,具体操作你可以和贷款公司讨论选择适合自己的付款方式。

关于房子的closing costs大概就是这样子:四大板块的费用--由于各个贷款公司收费运作不同,会有一些不同的收费项目,但是基本上也不出左右了。

Friday, December 21, 2007

Cramer: When Housing Will Bottom

Cramer是我还很喜欢的一个analyst. 没错他经常给一些wrong analysis, 他也是human嘛, 但是我喜欢他的crazy和confidence.

这里发一个昨天Cramer的访谈, 关于房市的。 他认为2008年的最后3个月会是买房的好时机。Let's see.

Video Link

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Immigrants Nudge Builders to Consider New Traditions

Foreign-born homebuyers are changing American design to accommodate their cultural traditions.

For instance, Centex Homes has largely abandoned models featuring a stairway leading up from the foyer that lines up exactly with the front door. That's because in many Asian communities, such an alignment is bad feng shui. It portends that luck will run out of the house.

Home builders in the South and West have begun building homes with more and smaller bedrooms than the traditional four-bedroom house to appeal to some Hispanic immigrant families in which many generations live under one roof.

In areas where there are many Hindu families, there is a demand for homes that reflect vastu shastra, an Indian design philosophy which suggests building homes facing east to soak up sunlight, while placing the kitchen in the center as the symbolic heart of the home.

Some Indian buyers strongly reject foreclosed homes because vastu shastra teaches that it's best to live in a home with positive energy, where the previous residents have been happy and prosperous.

Foreign-born residents make up a growing share of U.S. home owners at all income levels, but particularly first-time buyers, according to Zhu Xiao Di, a senior research analyst at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. Foreign-born residents make up about 16 percent of recent homebuyers in Maryland, 15 percent in Virginia, and 12 percent in the District, according to the center's analysis of U.S. Census data.

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Slow market

我的一个朋友是一个很会投资的人。 她的所有的房产都是在好学区的最好的学校旁边。 有一家过马路就是.

虽然是很slow的market, 她现在已经开始在看房要买下一个investment propertie. 她告诉我说这样的downturn她经历过几次了。她的propertie都是downturn里买的。

有危才有机啊。

Thursday, November 29, 2007

12月

最近没有怎么update我的blog. 快过节了, 很多事情going on.

快12月了, 新的一年又要开始了。 希望房市能慢慢的好起来。 价格稳定上涨 :)

10 best performing housing markets

Here are the top 10 best performing housing markets, according to Forbes magazine, their third quarter median home sale prices and the percentage that prices have risen compared to third quarter 2006.

  1. Salt Lake City; Median Home Sale Price: $246,700; Percent Change: 14.1 percent
  2. Charlotte, N.C., $220,000, 11 percent
  3. San Jose, Calif., $852,500, 9.4 percent
  4. San Francisco, $825,400, 8.6 percent
  5. Raleigh, N.C., $229,500, 7.5 percent
  6. Austin, $188,200, 7.2 percent
  7. Pittsburgh, $127,700, 6.1 percent
  8. Seattle, $394,700, 6 percent
  9. San Antonio, $154,700, 5.7 percent
  10. Portland, Ore., $299,700, 5.2 percent

Friday, November 16, 2007

How to Negotiate Like a Ninja

当一个好的agent很重要的一点就是知道如果讨价还价。

Know your opponent. If you’re a listing agent, ask questions of potential buyers, such as how long they’ve been looking or how many offers they’ve made. If you’re working for a buyer, find out how long a property has been on the market and if there’ve been any price reductions.
Identify vital striking points. Know what your clients’ wants and needs are, and understand the difference between needs, which are must-have items, and wants, which are optional and so negotiable.
Adopt an effective posture. Enter the negotiating process with a friendly demeanor to set the tone for effective discussions.
Block an opponent’s move with your own. If a seller asks a concession from your buyer, for example, don’t agree without first asking for a seller concession in return.
Stay calm and mentally focused. Once negotiations have begun, “distance yourself from the battle, don’t get emotionally involved,”

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Maybeck plan4

周日带客户去看新房Maybeck的, 他们还是一套都没有卖掉。 而且那个plan4竟然还在中文报纸上登广告70.7K! 马上打电话给YS, 她说还好没有买!因为上次我带他们去看房他们很动心这套,但是被我指出来院子朝向不好,他们后来就没有买。

这套虽然现在价格开的这么便宜,但是我也不会推荐给我的clients。 房子什么都好, upgrades一大堆,就是院子太小, 而且,最主要的是,朝北。 对于圣地亚哥来说,院子和房子的朝向是太太太关键了。 有人说我不在乎,圣地亚哥这个地方总是阳光普照,朝哪里还不是一样。 错! 房子的朝向至关重要。买房时一定要看仔细。

'Roulette Economy' of 2007 Is Almost Over

对于房地产来说,一个是subprime greed ,一个是buyers’ fear。

REALTOR首席的市场分析员(看last name好像中国人呐, YUN(袁?)今天指出:2008 will be a healthy market for serious buyers。 我希望是。

Home prices nationally have declined by some 1.5 percent in 2007, which is "no big deal" after years of rapid appreciation, said Yun. In addition, he noted, there are still many markets such as Utah, North Carolina, and Tennessee that are appreciating and may even be undervalued.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Delinquency, Default and Foreclosure

最近市场上short sale和foreclosure一下多了很多。 这里说说到底什么是Delinquency, Default还有Foreclosure

我们讲,Mortgage 就是你一次性借银行的钱买房,然后每个月拿钱去还。下一个问题是如果你不还,或是还不起了,会发生什么事。这里面涉及到很多法律问题,而且各个州的规定不一样,我只能就一般的情况作一个描述。
如果mortgage borrower miss 了payment due date, 就被称为Delinquency。当miss 第一个月,就进入30 day delinquency的状态, 再miss 第二个就是60 day delinquency, 当miss 完第三个due date, 就统称90+ day delinquency。当borrower 90+ delinquency 之后,银行就会给borrower 一个 Notice of Default (NoD). 之后大概会有90天的Silent Period, 这段时间borrower 如果能补齐所有的back payment 和一些fee 的话,一切就可以回到normal。但如果borrower 不能的话,过了Silent Period, 银行就会再发一份Notice of Sale (NoS), 定一个买房的时间。最后就进入foreclosure procedure, 银行一般通过auction 把房子卖了。在房子被卖了之后,borrower 最多再住30天,就必须离开。

最后祝愿大家都能以合理的价格和利率买到自己的DREAM HOUSE.

Inventories Improve in October vs. September

Total listing of homes for sale declined 1.4 percent in October compared to September, But total listings at the end of October were still 18 percent higher than they were in October 2006 in 17 metro areas for which comparable figures were available. Big inventories are persuading sellers to accept less and they become more flexible now.

Saturday, November 3, 2007

A picture is better than thousands words

For those not clear about boundaries: Click to see bigger image