一个搬到湾区的客户的来信

我一个客户搬到湾区了。 今天给我发来了一个email,  她让我给post到我的blog上 --
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我已劝说好几个中国妈妈别再来搅乱弯区的房市，给我们这些工薪阶层带来更大的压力。但她们居然不熟悉圣地亚哥。你帮我看着XXX的房子，有机会我还要回来。

最近我们在买房，真是惊叹于湾区人民的富裕。关键是有市场，这还是符合价值规律的。一百多万的房子，竟然经常见到cash-buyer。而且有不少竟是在卖投资房。几年前当我们刚刚来到湾区的时候，还认为自己的工资比较高，又是双职工，在湾区整套像样的房子，过上富足的生活不成问题。几年下来终于认识到，在湾区只凭工资吃饭是很紧张的。湾区人有钱，为什么？不是工资高。因为湾区的工资没有比其他地方翻倍，但是房价翻了一倍都不止，又是高物价，高税收的城市。湾区有钱人应该是这几种：
1。公司高官。湾区公司太多了，都是高科技新贵。公司多，高管也多。（中国是高官有钱，美国是高管有钱！）
2。Start-up 多，成功的Start-up相应地也多。一旦一个Start-up成功，就会造就若干，甚至上千的平民富翁。(Google 是个例子，Facebook应该也快了。)
3。还有亚洲各国的富豪，尤其是中国的高官，新贵。他们要来美国置业，当然首选湾区。因为华人社区好，华人服务好，天气好。
4。还有各级从商的人们。就买卖房屋上说，湾区的房屋agent，贷款agent就多如牛毛。并不是说这些人都有钱，但是这些人中间走在食物链上端的那部分，哪个不是腰缠几百万。
所以生活在湾区，若要舒舒服服地买栋房，一定要成为有钱人。不然，只有两条路：搬离湾区，或者背着重债住在小黑屋里。

Worst day since Oct. 08 - DJ 掉 513 点

double dip的谣言要成为预言了。

buyer们普遍缺乏信心。

加上贷款上限下调。

人心惶惶～

日子还要过，上有老下有小的我们房子也不能不买。

买了的现在也来不及后悔。 赶紧趁着rate好抓紧refin吧。

这就是市场，有人说是机会，有人唉声叹气, 有人无动于衷。

我们能做什么？

和买房无关。

动车的事情。 谁看了都心痛。

我们能做什么呢？

只能做好自己。

中国什么时候能以人为本？ 希望这一页别那么容易就翻过去。

纽约时报今天转载广为流传的微博：
中國，請停下你飛奔的腳步，等一等你的人民，等一等你的靈魂，等一等你的道德，等一等你的良知！不要讓列車脫軌，不要讓橋樑坍塌，不要讓道路成為陷阱，不要讓房屋成為廢墟。慢點走，讓每一個生命都享有自由和尊嚴。每一個個體，都不應該被這個時代拋棄.

Case-Shiller housing data: April 2011

Market	MoM Change	YoY Change	Peaked In...	Change from Peak	Prices Last at This Level in...	# of Months of Decrease
Phoenix	0.1%	-8.8%	Jun-06	-55.9%	Jan-00	0
LA	0.3%	-2.1%	Sep-06	-38.6%	Sep-03	0
San Diego	0.4%	-4.3%	Nov-05	-38.3%	Dec-02	0
Bay Area	1.7%	-5.5%	May-06	-39.5%	Jan-01	0
Denver	1.5%	-4.1%	Aug-06	-12.8%	Aug-01	0
DC Area	3.0%	4.0%	May-06	-25.6%	May-04	0
Atlanta	1.6%	-3.5%	Jul-07	-25.3%	Mar-00	0
Chicago	-0.4%	-8.6%	Sep-06	-34.7%	Mar-01	8
Boston	-0.2%	-4.2%	Sep-05	-19.4%	Sep-02	9
Las Vegas	-0.7%	-6.2%	Aug-06	-58.9%	Mar-99	7
New York	0.8%	-2.8%	Jun-06	-23.9%	Jan-04	0
Portland	0.1%	-9.2%	Jul-07	-28.8%	Sep-04	0
Dallas	0.5%	-4.0%	Jun-07	-10.4%	Apr-02	0
Seattle	1.6%	-6.9%	Jul-07	-29.7%	Aug-04	0
20 City Index	0.7%	-4.0%	Jul-06	-32.8%	Apr-03	0

Tight Credit Continues to Shut Buyers Out

For example, Amy Menell told The Wall Street Journal how a bank denied her for a home loan, despite her credit score being above 800, no debt, and having a down payment of more than 50 percent of the cost of the $400,000 home. However, Menell, who was in the process of finalizing a divorce, works as a real estate agent and didn’t have much income in 2009. While her business has picked up since then, she did not have the two years of documented income the banks wanted to process her loan application.

Other qualified buyers coming with good credit scores and credit histories are also finding themselves unable to get a home loan. Those who are having the toughest time are those who have seen their incomes drop or interrupted by a time of unemployment and self-employed applicants. Lenders don’t appear to have plans to ease credit soon either. Nearly four in 10 banks reported even tighter mortgage lending standards for the 12-month period ended in February, according to a survey by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Terramar 2011

Funny: the Great Wallet of China

Rezone for Poway school district affecting 4S Ranch

Poway school District excludes two older communities (Bernardo Point and the Summit) got voted "yes" yesterday at board meeting. Bernardo Point was selling for higher price because they are gated and no mello-roos. They have easy access to Monterey Ridge too. They are now assigned to Turtleback Elementary School. H

Monterey Ridge currently enrolls 956 students. Next school year MRES will have 1,120 students. By 2017/18, it is expected to have 1,416 students!!

高压线

经专家鉴定

这个是10万伏的高压线。 有辐射，但是还好。

My client was on Union Tribune

Click here to see the whole article.

My client was signing contract that day when Union Tribune came to the site for an interview. That is really cool~

“Jumbo” Mortgage is Set to Expire in Oct, 2011

On Oct. 1, the maximum loan amount that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is set to decrease from $729,750 to $625,500. This might make mortgages more expensive or more difficult to get for buyers in high-cost areas, MSNBC.com reports.

For example, after Oct. 1, a borrower who seeks a government-backed mortgage for a $1-million property may have to come up with a $370,000 down payment instead of $270,000, Rob Chrisman, a mortgage banking consultant from San Rafael, Calif., told MSNBC.

Up until 2008, any loan more than $418,000 was considered a jumbo loan, but that later swelled to $625,500 and then was temporarily set at $729,750 (which expires at the end of September).

Once the current jumbo loan limit expires, lenders who want to make loans over $625,500 either will have to hold onto the mortgage themselves or find a private investor to purchase it.

Terramar 2011 Summer

2 new subdivision in - Pines & Willows

Here is what I heard -- there were 6 builders including CA west (builder for Andalucia and Monte Luz) bidding for the last lot in 4S and Pulte homes won the bid.

So there they are -- with 2 new subdivision coming up in 4S Ranch. I sure hope this is the last development in 4S. Monterey Ridge has over 1,000 students already! Still growing. Dr. Newman said at one site council meeting that he would really reluctant to build those trailer classrooms but eventually he gave up.

Pines: 2679 sf to 3262 sf. (I really liked their plan 3) High 600K to Low 700K.

Willows: 3353 sf to 3586 sf Low 700K to High 700K. Total homes 50. Tax & Mello Roos 1.9%.

Where Are We in This Housing Market?

A picture is worth a thousand words.

我个人的感觉是，如果您需要购房自住，现在是很好的买房时机，因为现在的房价和2009年初基本持平。如果投资并能达到正现金流，现在也是很好的时机。如果已经有房或rental，应该转向其他比房地产更好的投资方向。

中国的房地产泡沫和两难。Housing bubbles in China

Empty cities and malls in China. On one side millions of unoccupied houses, on the other side, millions can't afford one.

美国人的收入金字塔

Thought the picture is eye popping.

Another set of data, the top 1% in US account for 25% of total income, and command 40% of total wealth.

记我们4S Ranch 图书馆的馆长

地处4S Ranch的商业中心，并且存有丰富的中文书以及中文影碟的图书馆，是住在4S Ranch的居民的好去处。  去图书馆泡，可以去看书，还可以参加各种丰富多彩的活动，更可以认识很多志同道合的朋友。 

最特别的是4S Ranch图书馆的馆长June Zhou, 是一位大家都很爱戴的女士。 她热心，勤力， 负责， 为4S的中国人社区做了很多的事情。 周馆长的耐心是有目共睹的， 她总是不厌其烦地回答大家的各种问题， 有好多人宁愿多等一会也要找她借书。尤其是老年人，都觉得周馆长没有任何架子，总是和蔼可亲，有求必应。 

周立青馆长是从上海师范大学英文专业毕业的。 毕业后来到美国在State of New York Stony 攻读图书馆专业。 1993年拿到硕士学位之后就在纽约的皇后区的图书馆工作，这里是全美最大的图书馆之一。 周馆长在这里工作了5年， 积累了丰富的图书馆工作经验，尤其是和少数族裔打交道的经验。 因为皇后区的图书馆非常注重为新移民搞活动，办各种帮助他们适应美国生活的学习班。 之后周馆长随先生搬到新泽西州， 一个机缘巧合她找到了一份在图书发行公司的工作。 这个工作促使她到全国各地的图书馆出差，帮助当地的图书馆做引进新书的工作。 这个工作她一做就是5年。 在这5年里学到了很多选书的门道，怎样根据不同大小，面对不同的读者来选取不同的藏书。 通过这份工作她也积累了很多的人脉和关系。 当时，正好圣地亚哥这里开建一个新的图书馆在Rancho San Diego。 通过帮他们买新书，她第一次和圣地亚哥结缘了。 2004年，先生转来圣地亚哥工作， 刚好圣地亚哥的图书馆有一个空缺， 而这个职位又刚好是经手买书的职位。 简直就是perfect match!  就这样，周立青全家就搬来了美丽的圣地亚哥。 

在圣地亚哥的图书馆， 周馆长负责帮助各个分馆选购图书， 和各个出版商，发行商打交道。 要说到选书， 这里的学问也很大。 不同的地区，不同的人口分布，有完全不同的需要。 还有不断的根据书的出借情况不断的及时调整。 2008年4S Ranch的分馆open, 她也负责帮助这个新的图书馆来挑选图书。 当时研究人口分布图的时候，周馆长发现4S非常的多元化，主要人口有印度人，中国人，阿拉伯人，伊朗人，菲律宾，越南，更有很多的法国人和意大利人。 了解了人口分布，对于选书买书就有的放矢了。  

2009年周馆长来到4S Ranch出任馆长的时候，图书馆完全没有任何针对中国人的活动。 她主动和Local organization 联系， 让他们派老师来免费教来探亲的老人们学英文。 这个活动得到了积极的响应。 随后她又联系了一周一次的公民班。 随着本地华人的不断增多， 大家都反映缺少一个聚会和搞活动的场地。 在周馆长的大力支持下， 每个月的第一个星期一，“相聚图书馆”。 而每次都有一个主题，比如做饭， 种花， 中医。 都是大家感兴趣的话题。 来参加的人越来越多。 成为了社区的中国人，尤其是老年人相互交流的中心。 而且每年的中秋，新年，春节， 图书馆都要装饰的漂漂亮亮， 大家聚在一起，其乐融融。 每次周馆长都对老人们亲切招呼， 让大家感到很温暖。 渐渐地， 社区里的中国人都知道周馆长，很多老人不懂英文，就要等着让周馆长帮他们借书。 

除了给社区中国人办的活动，4S Ranch其他的活动也很丰富多彩。 本地人参与到社区图书馆的热情很高， 各种文化的节日都有相应的庆祝活动。 每年的夏天搞的阅读计划，都是整个county图书馆的Record breaking。 在County的33个图书馆中， 4S Ranch的是面积最小的，但是书流量一直排名第九名。 在总馆的例会上也经常被表扬。 每个月都有3万5千本书的书流量， 是相当可观的数字。 而且这个数字一直在不断增长，因为社区的人数一直在增长， 每天都有新搬入社区的人来办理图书证。 

周馆长为了社区的中国人的文化活动， 尽心尽力， 还特别订阅了世界日报和大家都很喜爱的华人。 

Celebrities Face Foreclosure Too

The rich and famous are finding they aren’t immune to foreclosure. In the last six months, actor Nicolas Cage, baseball legend Julius “Dr.J” Erving, and hip-hop artist Chamillionaire have gone through foreclosure proceedings, Reuters News reports.

Morgan Brennan of Forbes.com says strategic defaults are becoming more common among celebrities--that’s when a party walks away from a home because of its big loss in value, even though they have enough money to pay the mortgage.
That’s what Erving did. He said his Utah mansion was drastically underwater and so he stopped making his mortgage payments last fall on the home.
"All price points have been hit by the foreclosure crisis,” Brennan told Reuters News. “The rich and famous have not been excluded from that. There are a handful of people in the luxury real estate category that are experiencing foreclosures as well."

$232,000 per bottle

Three 1869 bottles of Château Lafite Rothschild, which sold for $232,000 per bottle at Sotheby’s Hong Kong on October 30, setting a new worldwide auction record for wine

买酒的也都是Asian, 买房的也是。 乱观感。

Testimonial: Portilla

Connie is very knowledge about the market. She's especially familiar with the Carmel Valley and 4S Ranch markets. Although she was taking an oversea vacation at the beginning of our house hunting process, she made sure that we were taken cared of by another Realtor. What's amazing is that she is so familiar with the houses in the market, that whichever house we had questions, she could tell her her impression from memory via email. She has many clients, that is why she is familiar with the market. She is always responsive whenever e ask her questions. We selected Connie also because she was never hesitate in offering her candidate opinion of the houses that she showed, which provides us a helpful neutral perspective in the selection process. She was also very resourceful and provided good referrals for mortgage brokers, carpet cleaning, etc. She also helped us negotiated $4000 with the bank for the short-sale house we bought, which was not easy, and we appreciate her tenacity in helping us get each dollar back. The other thing that was really great about Connie is that she helped us rent out our other house without charging us anything. That house was rented out around Christmas time, which was a slow month for house renting. We love Connie and will not hesitate in recommending her to others.