Inflation in College Tuitions

Happy New Year!!

It's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years.

Happy New Year!!

房市的不可预测

2010年就要结束了，2011年就要到来了，每当这个时候，就会有很多人出来预测明年的房市。其实预测是靠感觉的，不完全靠数据，也没什么用，关键还是要看每个人的情况。我个人觉得2011 will be a flat year.

就拿Lawrence Yun来说吧（REALTOR协会的首席经济专家）年复一年失败预测：

还有人专门写了一个博客就是揭露他的严重不准确预测：
http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/

1/10/2008
Lawrence Yun said, “A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008."

7/24/2008
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said "I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn," Yun said.

11/17/2008
Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the perpetually optimistic National Association of Realtors, says he expects prices to rise 2.8% in 2009.

11/13/2009
"The fear factor will no longer be at play in 2010," said Lawrence Yun

11/6/2010
"It will take another two years to clear the foreclosures and short sales on the market", said Lawrence Yun。

唉，还是给大家送一首歌吧：

宽 心 谣

日出东海落西山，愁也一天，喜也一天。
遇事不钻牛角尖，人也舒坦，心也舒坦。
每月领取养老钱，多也喜欢，少也喜欢。
少荤多素日三餐，粗也香甜，细也香甜。
新旧衣服不挑拣，好也御寒，赖也御寒。
常与知己聊聊天，古也谈谈，今也谈谈。
内孙外孙同样看，儿也心欢，女也心欢。
全家老小互慰勉，贫也相安，富也相安。
早晚操劳勤锻炼，忙也乐观，闲也乐观。
心宽体胖养天年，不是神仙，胜似神仙。 其实，拥有更多的东西也就同时拥有了更多的烦恼。 想想我们一无所有的那个年代，不是也很快乐吗？

Testimonial: Sea Knoll

Connie has been very knowledgeble about the Carmel Valley real estate market and in many times due to her connections and large client bases, she can advise her clients more intelligently in terms of the strategy and the competitions to avoid unnecessary hassles. She is very keen and competent in negotiating prices and offerring advice on the house structure, fengshui and strength/weakness of the house. We highly recommend her services.

今年的Mortgage Rate

今年的9，10月份贷款利率是历史最低的，现在可能已经反转，历史最低率is already "in the rearview mirrors", 可能不会再来了。

Three Scenarios From the Foreclosure Freeze

Gregor Watson, a principal with McKinley Partners, a development company that buys foreclosed homes, told listeners on a Citi home-builder conference call that there were three potential outcomes from the foreclosure fiasco:

· Best case: These are technical issues that can be resolved quickly so the foreclosure process can continue and the glut of foreclosed homes is cleared from the market.

· Medium case: There is significant litigation that takes years to sort out and this slows the troubled housing market even further.

· Worst case: The market grinds to a halt and title insurers refuse to insure mortgages involving foreclosed homes. “It would be devastating for the resale market if this robo-signer issue spiraled out of control,” Watson says.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Dawn Wotapka (10/12/2010)

Control?

我帮buyer买到很好的deal. 我发现，好几次和seller's agent斗争的时候，那些大牌agent总是直接或者间接地说: Connie，你要get a good control of the client才是好agent. （潜台词：这样的要求不合理，你自己就应该和buyer解决掉）。

我承认这些big name agent的确有很好的control, 他们control的目的无非是把deal 做成，并不是client's best interests. 我不认为我去帮客户争取被他们认为是ridiculous的要求有什么问题。 我也不在意他们的看法。 In the end, close escrow之后不要让买家有遗憾才是真的。 毕竟，我们现在还是buyer's market!!

Not selling well this release

Manzanita Trail:

和上2次火爆的销售相比，这次竟然还剩下5个：

Plan 3:

Lot 34: 847

Lot 35: 895

Lot 37: 885

Plan 4:

Lot 36: 935

Lot 40: 929

Move in March/April 2011

另外一个Lot47 Plan 3C： 908 （Move in Nov./Dec. 2010)

Global Air Quality Map

World wide air quality measured by amount of micro particles in the air.

你还敢在国内长住吗。Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjin etc are all close to the max.

2010 San Diego County Middle School/High School APIs

Rank API Middle School District
1 967 Carmel Valley San Dieguito
2 951 R. Roger Rowe Rancho Santa Fe
3 930 Mesa Verde Poway
4 929 Earl Warren San Dieguito
5 924 Marshall San Diego Unified
6 915 Oak Valley Poway
7 900 Hillsdale Cajon Valley

Rank API High School District
1 920 River Valley Charter* Lakeside
2 894 Canyon Crest Academy San Dieguito
3 885 Preuss Charter San Diego Unified
4 875 Scripps Ranch San Diego Unified
5 871 Mt. Everest Academy* San Diego Unified
6 870 Torrey Pines San Dieguito
7 857 Poway Poway
8 855 Del Norte Poway
8 855 Rancho Bernardo Poway
9 851 Westview Poway

Carmel Valley Elementary School 2010 API

Del Mar 2010 2009 Change
Ashley Falls 952 955 -3
Carmel Del Mar 943 948 -5
Del Mar Heights 965 948 +17
Del Mar Hills 923 924 -1
Ocean Air 981 975 +6
Sage Canyon 973 976 -3
Sycamore Ridge 965 959 +6
Torrey Hills 955 962 -7

Solana Beach 2010 2009 Change
Carmel Creek 947 947 0
Skyline 911 910 +1
Solana Hlands 942 942 0
Solana Pacific 963 940 +23
Solana Santa Fe 934 940 -6
Solana Vista 892 905 -13

Poway Unified School District 2010 API

Poway Unified School District 2010 Academic Performance Index (API)

Schools 2010 API 2009 API

Elementary Schools
Adobe Bluffs Elementary 946 932
Canyon View Elementary 935 925
Chaparral Elementary 928 926
Creekside Elementary 947 946
Deer Canyon Elementary 954 956
Del Sur Elementary 954 902
Garden Road Elementary 892 864
Highland Ranch Elementary 906 903
Los Peñasquitos Elementary 915 917
Midland Elementary 911 903
Monterey Ridge Elementary 927 929
Morning Creek Elementary 882 867
Painted Rock Elementary 916 907
Park Village Elementary 944 949
Pomerado Elementary 857 877
Rolling Hills Elementary 924 905
Shoal Creek Elementary 908 895
Stone Ranch Elementary 954 941
Sundance Elementary 913 921
Sunset Hills Elementary 867 883
Tierra Bonita Elementary 907 883
Turtleback Elementary 914 919
Valley Elementary 825 812
Westwood Elementary 914 916
Willow Grove Elementary 939 927
Middle Schools
Bernardo Heights Middle 899 893
Black Mountain Middle 884 875
Meadowbrook Middle 859 856
Mesa Verde Middle 930 927
Oak Valley Middle 915 895
Twin Peaks Middle 888 879
High Schools
Del Norte High 855 n/a
Mt. Carmel High 818 815
Poway High 857 850
Rancho Bernardo High 855 841
Westview High 851 848

HUD offers homes at HALF prices to Firefighters and Teachers etc.

According to this article, the HUD is offering homes at HALF the price to certain government employees including firefighters, police officers, emergency medical techs, and best of all teachers, with a program called "GOOD NEIGHBOR NEXT DOOR". If you qualify, you only need to pay half the appraised price.The catch is that these homes are located in "revitalization areas", which means not-so-good neighborhoods. And you need to live there for minimum 3 years.

Check Crime Map (Rate)

http://mapping.arjis.org/CrimeMAPS/main.aspx

Motorola's New Mobility Spinoff May Pick San Diego as Its Headquarter

According to this article, Motorola's new mobility spinoff (making cell phones) headed by former Qualcomm executive, Sanjay Jha, will likely to pick San Diego as its new headquarter. If that happens, it should generate some buying demand here.

The Foreclosure Report

State	Notice of Default	Notice of Sale	Back to Bank	Sold to 3rd Party
Arizona	n/a	-12.2%	-2.0%	-5.8%
California	+16.7%	+2.7%	+20.3%	-0.4%
Nevada	-7.5%	-3.34%	-12.0%	+26.2%
Washington	n/a	-15.6%	-10.3%	-15.6%
Oregon	+10.7%	+9.3%	+27.6%	-8.0%

California
Notices of Default filings, the first step in the foreclosure process, jumped 16.6 percent in August, the fourth successive increase in as many months. Fewer homeowners found foreclosure relief as foreclosure cancellations dropped 11.2 percent while more homes were lost, up 15.6 percent to 17,841 foreclosure sales.

Top Foreclosure ZIP codes in San Diego County:

92054

92126

91910

92105

91911

92154

92114

91950

92083

92021

92115

91977

Highland Village cooling down

由于前一段接二连三的release, 最近market疲软， HV现在还有2套Plan1 available, 价格在48万左右。 Plan2还有一套53万。 而Plan3也还剩一个55.6万。 人见人爱的Plan4仍然售迄。

Now SUPER low mortgage rate that can get even lower..

The 30y fixed high balance is only 4.5% with no cost. This was unthinkable even weeks ago. Now some experts are predicting 3.x% rate for 30yr fixed this winter.

It is hard to imagine what kind impact/effect it will have in the future given such cheap loans are given to so many home owners. There was news that FED even gave non-financial companies like IBM 1% loan in hope that they can create more jobs. Is this creative or insane? I guess given the current thinking from FED anything can happen.

Vacation 结束

I am back to work today.

推荐一个小孩玩的地方（北京）

这个是新开业的。

http://www.dianping.com/shop/3705697_p2#ur

挺贵的门票。 小孩160， 大人20.

老大比较会赚钱， 做了主持人，修车手，法官， 空少， 果汁店店员， 特种部队队员，等等。
老二做了育婴护士，蛋糕店店员， 果汁店店员，还有牙医。

二个人都玩的超级high。

里面很干净， 感觉还是井井有条的管理。而且是小group的孩子一起进去。

小孩高兴就好。 我就累坏了可。