房市的不可预测

2010年就要结束了，2011年就要到来了，每当这个时候，就会有很多人出来预测明年的房市。其实预测是靠感觉的，不完全靠数据，也没什么用，关键还是要看每个人的情况。我个人觉得2011 will be a flat year.

就拿Lawrence Yun来说吧（REALTOR协会的首席经济专家）年复一年失败预测：

还有人专门写了一个博客就是揭露他的严重不准确预测：
http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/

1/10/2008
Lawrence Yun said, “A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008."

7/24/2008
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said "I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn," Yun said.

11/17/2008
Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the perpetually optimistic National Association of Realtors, says he expects prices to rise 2.8% in 2009.

11/13/2009
"The fear factor will no longer be at play in 2010," said Lawrence Yun

11/6/2010
"It will take another two years to clear the foreclosures and short sales on the market", said Lawrence Yun。

唉，还是给大家送一首歌吧：

宽 心 谣

日出东海落西山，愁也一天，喜也一天。
遇事不钻牛角尖，人也舒坦，心也舒坦。
每月领取养老钱，多也喜欢，少也喜欢。
少荤多素日三餐，粗也香甜，细也香甜。
新旧衣服不挑拣，好也御寒，赖也御寒。
常与知己聊聊天，古也谈谈，今也谈谈。
内孙外孙同样看，儿也心欢，女也心欢。
全家老小互慰勉，贫也相安，富也相安。
早晚操劳勤锻炼，忙也乐观，闲也乐观。
心宽体胖养天年，不是神仙，胜似神仙。 其实，拥有更多的东西也就同时拥有了更多的烦恼。 想想我们一无所有的那个年代，不是也很快乐吗？