Showing posts with label Market Update. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Update. Show all posts

Monday, December 16, 2013

2013年小总结

2013年年底,回顾一下这一年的重点 - 其实年初这些都有说过了。 信不信由你。

1.房地产价格提升高过了各种预测和官方预期。也超过了大多数买家的预期。 

从二月份开始房价开始了一天一个价的势头。 不但买家的脚步跟不上, 业内人士也都大跌眼镜。 到年底势头仍然没有减弱。

2.贷款利率有所提高但是仍然保持在历史低点

房利美30年期贷款利率在2012年底为3.45%,在2013年底,这个数字达到了4.49%,预测2014年年初到三月份,贷款利率将维持不变。

3.低房源。
综合低房价,低利率,低市场保有量的因素影响,一个房源多家竞争的例子屡见不鲜 。好区出来还不错的房子基本上都是5个offer以上。

4.买方接受并认为现在是“价格合理和稳定”的房地产市场。
尽管2013年的房价较2012年已经有了两位百分数的增长,但是由于贷款利率维持在较低水平和工作稳定性的提高,买家依然认为房产价格处于过去30年房价历史数据中的合理区间。

5.”仍然是家中的有力力量。
2013年度33.6%的买家是全款现金支付,在过去的3中,这一比重一直是呈现上升趋势,其中海外热钱更是引人注意。 好多人觉得是中国人最牛, 其实是排第四, 第一是墨西哥, 第二加拿大

6.房租价格的上涨和租方需求量的上升使得投资房成为买房的另一中坚力量。
2002年约70%的美国人拥有房产,其中30%的房产拥有者选择将其出租投资,而在2013年,约65%的美国人拥有房产,其中35%的房产拥有者选择将其出租投资。因此,投资性买房在过去一段时间内上涨也颇为显著。 


Monday, September 2, 2013

UTC Mall updated with many new stores!!

UTC Mall renovation 基本上接近成功了。 走现代路线, 年轻有活力, 对比 Fashion Valley的奢华。

他们家新开了不少的饭馆。有人wonder 他家摆放在外面的 Patio Furniture吗?







http://www.schoenhuberfranchi.com/dati/LeisureLivingFurnishings_2011.pdf



加上附近的商圈,还是值得在假日和家人朋友们一起去relax & spend some money的。

另外今天的大新闻, 微软把诺基亚买了。


Sunday, December 16, 2012

SD home sales best in 7 years


San Diego County housing prices rose 13.7 percent over the last year to $358,000 as sales soared to their best November in seven years, DataQuick reported Wednesday.
It was the highest overall price since July 2008 as the market was skidding down and posted in March 2003 as prices were rocketing up.
In brief, overall prices were 30.8 percent off the November 2005 peak but have risen 27.9 percent since the January 2009 
Even Riverside up 3.6 percent from October and 10.5 percent from November 2011.
"Investor activity and cash purchases remain unusually high," 
"All signals are pretty favorable for next year to continue the recent pace," 
As of Dec. 5, there were 4,636 homes for sale on the local multiple listing service. That was down 50.2 percent from December 2011's active listing total of 9,303. The current low inventory level is comparable to the go-go days of spring 2004.
In La Jolla, Agents are cold-calling homeowners with offers from clients who have picked out a house they like because the inventory is so low.
"I just don't know why all of sudden, The market hasn't gone up that much, but it's enough for some people to see a little bit of profit in the sale."
The overall Southern California trends mirrored San Diego's, with sales up 14.2 percent to 19,285 and median prices up 16.7 percent to $321,000 in the six-county region.
Of particular interest is where prices were rising, regionally and locally.

看英文比较慢对不对, 你就记住一句话, 复苏开始了。 进场吧!

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Real estate: Find opportunity next year

Source: CNN Money


After five years of tumult, order and opportunity are finally being restored to the housing market.
"Housing is finally turning the corner," Stiff says. "There is no reason to be fearful of further large price declines."
This creates a new playing field for homeowners, who are finally able to sell, as well as would-be buyers who've been delaying a purchase in anticipation that prices would keep falling.
The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts that more and more house hunters will start coming off the sidelines, with new-home loans for purchases expected to jump 55%, based in dollars, in 2013.
With that increased competition, "the days of buyers sticking it to sellers are over," says Salt Lake City real estate agent Tracie Peay.
Sellers: Don't get too excited just yet. You don't have a viselike grip on this market either. Indeed, for many, it still makes sense to wait to get better prices. This is especially true if you know that you won't be able to break even on your investment by unloading your house now, once you factor in the sales commission and other costs.
That said, don't assume that prices will be off to the races again in a year or two.
Fiserv forecasts that between now and 2017, homes will gain 3.3% a year in value. That's hardly red-hot. But at least the market isn't frozen anymore.


Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Home Prices Climb as Supply Dwindles


Home prices rose by their largest percentage in at least seven years during the second quarter, propelled by low inventories of properties for sale and high demand for bargain-priced foreclosures, according to two reports Tuesday.
Prices rose by 2.5% in June from a year ago, and by 6% from the previous quarter, said CoreLogic Inc., a Santa Ana, Calif., data firm. The quarterly jump was the largest since 2005.
Separately, Freddie Mac, which uses a different methodology, said home prices during the second quarter jumped by 4.8% from the previous quarter. That was the largest jump since 2004.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Highlands Village Models being released for sale!


今天收到的。 25号的时候已经都卖掉了。

Good Afternoon Connie,

We are releasing the Highlands Village model homes tomorrow and I just wanted to email you the prices.

Below are the offering prices for the Highlands Village Model Homes!

156       Plan 3N             $596,900
157       Plan 2SR          $569,900
158       Plan 1C             $479,900
159       Plan 1XSR        $489,900
160       Plan 2N             $563,900
161       Plan 4CR          $654,900

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Recovery or Not -- 冒充预测2012

每年的年初,大牛都要Forecast了。 我这人虽然算不上大牛,但是不能免俗,也经常小预测一把。 而且以前也时不时的帮客户抄到底,买到过超值的房子。 让人就不免的骄傲。今年呢,我个人觉得基本上还是会flat。 但是从本月来,房市慢慢复苏,然后某本地大公司从去年年底开始到现在都在狂招人,大家都开始坐不住了。 不过买房子考虑因素很多,好房子总是很少,而且每年都是暑假开始前热那么一段时间。 所以不着急的还是要稳住。

Friday, January 13, 2012

Foreign Buyers See Big Bargains in U.S. Real Estate

Foreign investors are finding plenty of deals in the U.S. when it comes to real estate, and, as such, more international investors are flocking to key states to buy their piece of the American Dream. 
Source: “Housing More Affordable Than Ever ... for Foreign Investors,” MSNBC.com (Jan. 13, 2012)
The top destinations of foreign investors for U.S. real estate purchases are: 
1. Florida: Thirty-one percent of all home purchases in that state are made by foreign buyers, with most coming from Cuba, Haiti, and Colombia.
2. California: 12 percent of all home purchases (most coming from Mexico, the Philippines, China, India, and Vietnam)
3. Texas: 9 percent of all home purchases (most coming from Mexico, India, Vietnam, China, and the Philippines)

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Bernanke's refinanced twice recently

Ben Bernanke lives in a three-bedroom, 2,100-square-foot, attached town house near the Capitol. It has an appraised value of roughly $850,000, not far from the $839,000 he paid for it in 2004. A public record search shows he owes $672,000 on the home, after refinancing his mortgage twice. 

One refinancing was in late 2009. The other was in late September, shortly after the Fed announced a new program, known as "Operation Twist," which aimed to drive down long-term interest rates. 

After a decade in Washington, Mr. Bernanke doesn't seem to have been swept up by the nation's capital. 

He doesn't read books about the financial crisis. When asked in September if he had seen a recent HBO movie about it, he said he hadn't: "I saw the original."

Friday, November 18, 2011

San Diego房租上涨,despite 房价下跌。

最近看了一下,发现圣地亚哥的租房市场需求强劲,最近好几个4S的3000尺single family homes 都轻松租出去了,一般在$3300/month 左右。Townhouse 也很好租,加上现在的低利率,买房出租是一个不错的选择。当然好几个邻居都是因为relocation/回国,但是能租出cover mortgage and tax, 省去了他们的后顾之忧。

以Carmel Valley 一个小区为例,在2006年时,我们在那里租房,1900尺townhouse, 月租$2200, 售价为$720k左右;5年后的现在,在Zillow上看了一下,月租$2800, 售价$620k.
WOW, 房租涨了25%, 尽管房价掉了15%
而同时30年房贷利息由6% 降到现在的4.25%甚至是3.875。

Saturday, November 12, 2011

The Economist: Rising From the Ruin, on Housing Recovery in US

There is an article about US housing pointing to possible recovery. I'm never really into this kind of prediction but it never hurts to listen to someone's opinion especially from a well respected journal as "The Economist".

A few excerpts from the article:
  • The potential for a strong housing recovery lies in the depths of the bust. Fewer homes will be added to the housing stock this year than in any year since records began in 1968. In September the inventory of newly built houses for sale fell to its lowest level since record-keeping began.
  • Rental markets, by contrast, look far stronger. Nationally, rents rose 2.1% in the year to August, in stark contrast to house prices;Rising rents help housing markets heal on both the supply and demand side, by encouraging renters to consider buying and through the movement of supply into the rental market, easing the glut of houses for sale.
  • However, The macroeconomic environment remains troublesome. Foreclosures are falling, but they continue to place downward pressure on prices. 
  • A new analysis by Goldman Sachs argues that housing can “punch above its weight” in recoveries. Rising house values boost confidence and spending. A housing recovery should also give monetary policy more traction; low interest rates do less to perk up the economy when housing markets are depressed. Indeed, the Federal Reserve is considering nudging recovery along by buying mortgage assets, which should ease the flow of credit to borrowers.


Thursday, August 4, 2011

Worst day since Oct. 08 - DJ 掉 513 点

double dip的谣言要成为预言了。

buyer们普遍缺乏信心。

加上贷款上限下调。

人心惶惶~

日子还要过,上有老下有小的我们房子也不能不买。

买了的现在也来不及后悔。 赶紧趁着rate好抓紧refin吧。

这就是市场,有人说是机会,有人唉声叹气, 有人无动于衷。

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Case-Shiller housing data: April 2011

MarketMoM ChangeYoY ChangePeaked In...Change from PeakPrices Last at This
Level in...
# of Months
of Decrease
Phoenix0.1%-8.8%Jun-06-55.9%Jan-000
LA0.3%-2.1%Sep-06-38.6%Sep-030
San Diego0.4%-4.3%Nov-05-38.3%Dec-020
Bay Area1.7%-5.5%May-06-39.5%Jan-010
Denver1.5%-4.1%Aug-06-12.8%Aug-010
DC Area3.0%4.0%May-06-25.6%May-040
Atlanta1.6%-3.5%Jul-07-25.3%Mar-000
Chicago-0.4%-8.6%Sep-06-34.7%Mar-018
Boston-0.2%-4.2%Sep-05-19.4%Sep-029
Las Vegas-0.7%-6.2%Aug-06-58.9%Mar-997
New York0.8%-2.8%Jun-06-23.9%Jan-040
Portland0.1%-9.2%Jul-07-28.8%Sep-040
Dallas0.5%-4.0%Jun-07-10.4%Apr-020
Seattle1.6%-6.9%Jul-07-29.7%Aug-040
20 City Index0.7%-4.0%Jul-06-32.8%Apr-030

Monday, June 27, 2011

Tight Credit Continues to Shut Buyers Out

For example, Amy Menell told The Wall Street Journal how a bank denied her for a home loan, despite her credit score being above 800, no debt, and having a down payment of more than 50 percent of the cost of the $400,000 home. However, Menell, who was in the process of finalizing a divorce, works as a real estate agent and didn’t have much income in 2009. While her business has picked up since then, she did not have the two years of documented income the banks wanted to process her loan application.

Other qualified buyers coming with good credit scores and credit histories are also finding themselves unable to get a home loan. Those who are having the toughest time are those who have seen their incomes drop or interrupted by a time of unemployment and self-employed applicants. Lenders don’t appear to have plans to ease credit soon either. Nearly four in 10 banks reported even tighter mortgage lending standards for the 12-month period ended in February, according to a survey by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Where Are We in This Housing Market?


A picture is worth a thousand words.

我个人的感觉是,如果您需要购房自住,现在是很好的买房时机,因为现在的房价和2009年初基本持平。如果投资并能达到正现金流,现在也是很好的时机。如果已经有房或rental,应该转向其他比房地产更好的投资方向。

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Three Scenarios From the Foreclosure Freeze

Gregor Watson, a principal with McKinley Partners, a development company that buys foreclosed homes, told listeners on a Citi home-builder conference call that there were three potential outcomes from the foreclosure fiasco:

· Best case: These are technical issues that can be resolved quickly so the foreclosure process can continue and the glut of foreclosed homes is cleared from the market.

· Medium case: There is significant litigation that takes years to sort out and this slows the troubled housing market even further.

· Worst case: The market grinds to a halt and title insurers refuse to insure mortgages involving foreclosed homes. “It would be devastating for the resale market if this robo-signer issue spiraled out of control,” Watson says.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Dawn Wotapka (10/12/2010)

Control?

我帮buyer买到很好的deal. 我发现,好几次和seller's agent斗争的时候,那些大牌agent总是直接或者间接地说: Connie,你要get a good control of the client才是好agent. (潜台词:这样的要求不合理,你自己就应该和buyer解决掉)。

我承认这些big name agent的确有很好的control, 他们control的目的无非是把deal 做成,并不是client's best interests. 我不认为我去帮客户争取被他们认为是ridiculous的要求有什么问题。 我也不在意他们的看法。 In the end, close escrow之后不要让买家有遗憾才是真的。 毕竟,我们现在还是buyer's market!!

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

The Foreclosure Report

StateNotice of DefaultNotice of SaleBack to BankSold to 3rd Party
Arizonan/a-12.2%-2.0%-5.8%
California+16.7%+2.7%+20.3%-0.4%
Nevada-7.5%-3.34%-12.0%+26.2%
Washingtonn/a-15.6%-10.3%-15.6%
Oregon+10.7%+9.3%+27.6%-8.0%

California
Notices of Default filings, the first step in the foreclosure process, jumped 16.6 percent in August, the fourth successive increase in as many months. Fewer homeowners found foreclosure relief as foreclosure cancellations dropped 11.2 percent while more homes were lost, up 15.6 percent to 17,841 foreclosure sales.

Top Foreclosure ZIP codes in San Diego County:




Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Bank of America Modified 0.6 million Loans Since Jan 2008

BOA has completed about 56,400 permanent mortgage modifications under Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), and has now completed a total of more than 600,000 modifications through all available programs since January 2008-- Among them, 115,000 were converted this year.

In the first quarter of this year, Bank of America loaned $70 billion to 320,000 customers to purchase a home or refinance their existing first mortgage.

Thus we can see that BOA has modified about 2 quaters worth of loans.

Saturday, April 3, 2010

卖掉北京城可以买下半个美国

北京全市土地面积16410平方公里。其中平原面积6338平方公里,山区面积10072平方公里。即使考虑到山区的综合利用率低,不算计价范围以内,理论上北京平原地区土地总市值为22万亿人民币,相当于美国地价总值的1/2以上,买下半个美国尚有余钱。

当然,以上预测并没有考虑到在实际市场环境下,6338平方公里土地推出市场,对地价的打压作用,推论并不十分科学严谨
  
  过去的10年,政府在社会保障方面的投入远远不足,“两会”之后,仓促间推出“住房双轨制”,北京市政府计划50%的新增用地投向社会保障性住房,在没有土地增量的情况下,强行划走商品房用地份额,无视中产阶层以及“城市新移民”的刚性需求,只能让房价越涨越高,越来越离谱。