Happy New Year!!

It's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years.

Happy New Year!!

房市的不可预测

2010年就要结束了，2011年就要到来了，每当这个时候，就会有很多人出来预测明年的房市。其实预测是靠感觉的，不完全靠数据，也没什么用，关键还是要看每个人的情况。我个人觉得2011 will be a flat year.

就拿Lawrence Yun来说吧（REALTOR协会的首席经济专家）年复一年失败预测：

还有人专门写了一个博客就是揭露他的严重不准确预测：
http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/

1/10/2008
Lawrence Yun said, “A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008."

7/24/2008
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said "I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn," Yun said.

11/17/2008
Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the perpetually optimistic National Association of Realtors, says he expects prices to rise 2.8% in 2009.

11/13/2009
"The fear factor will no longer be at play in 2010," said Lawrence Yun

11/6/2010
"It will take another two years to clear the foreclosures and short sales on the market", said Lawrence Yun。

唉，还是给大家送一首歌吧：

宽 心 谣

日出东海落西山，愁也一天，喜也一天。
遇事不钻牛角尖，人也舒坦，心也舒坦。
每月领取养老钱，多也喜欢，少也喜欢。
少荤多素日三餐，粗也香甜，细也香甜。
新旧衣服不挑拣，好也御寒，赖也御寒。
常与知己聊聊天，古也谈谈，今也谈谈。
内孙外孙同样看，儿也心欢，女也心欢。
全家老小互慰勉，贫也相安，富也相安。
早晚操劳勤锻炼，忙也乐观，闲也乐观。
心宽体胖养天年，不是神仙，胜似神仙。 其实，拥有更多的东西也就同时拥有了更多的烦恼。 想想我们一无所有的那个年代，不是也很快乐吗？

Testimonial: Sea Knoll

Connie has been very knowledgeble about the Carmel Valley real estate market and in many times due to her connections and large client bases, she can advise her clients more intelligently in terms of the strategy and the competitions to avoid unnecessary hassles. She is very keen and competent in negotiating prices and offerring advice on the house structure, fengshui and strength/weakness of the house. We highly recommend her services.

今年的Mortgage Rate

今年的9，10月份贷款利率是历史最低的，现在可能已经反转，历史最低率is already "in the rearview mirrors", 可能不会再来了。

Three Scenarios From the Foreclosure Freeze

Gregor Watson, a principal with McKinley Partners, a development company that buys foreclosed homes, told listeners on a Citi home-builder conference call that there were three potential outcomes from the foreclosure fiasco:

· Best case: These are technical issues that can be resolved quickly so the foreclosure process can continue and the glut of foreclosed homes is cleared from the market.

· Medium case: There is significant litigation that takes years to sort out and this slows the troubled housing market even further.

· Worst case: The market grinds to a halt and title insurers refuse to insure mortgages involving foreclosed homes. “It would be devastating for the resale market if this robo-signer issue spiraled out of control,” Watson says.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Dawn Wotapka (10/12/2010)

Control?

我帮buyer买到很好的deal. 我发现，好几次和seller's agent斗争的时候，那些大牌agent总是直接或者间接地说: Connie，你要get a good control of the client才是好agent. （潜台词：这样的要求不合理，你自己就应该和buyer解决掉）。

我承认这些big name agent的确有很好的control, 他们control的目的无非是把deal 做成，并不是client's best interests. 我不认为我去帮客户争取被他们认为是ridiculous的要求有什么问题。 我也不在意他们的看法。 In the end, close escrow之后不要让买家有遗憾才是真的。 毕竟，我们现在还是buyer's market!!

Not selling well this release

Manzanita Trail:

和上2次火爆的销售相比，这次竟然还剩下5个：

Plan 3:

Lot 34: 847

Lot 35: 895

Lot 37: 885

Plan 4:

Lot 36: 935

Lot 40: 929

Move in March/April 2011

另外一个Lot47 Plan 3C： 908 （Move in Nov./Dec. 2010)

Global Air Quality Map

World wide air quality measured by amount of micro particles in the air.

你还敢在国内长住吗。Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjin etc are all close to the max.

2010 San Diego County Middle School/High School APIs

Rank API Middle School District
1 967 Carmel Valley San Dieguito
2 951 R. Roger Rowe Rancho Santa Fe
3 930 Mesa Verde Poway
4 929 Earl Warren San Dieguito
5 924 Marshall San Diego Unified
6 915 Oak Valley Poway
7 900 Hillsdale Cajon Valley

Rank API High School District
1 920 River Valley Charter* Lakeside
2 894 Canyon Crest Academy San Dieguito
3 885 Preuss Charter San Diego Unified
4 875 Scripps Ranch San Diego Unified
5 871 Mt. Everest Academy* San Diego Unified
6 870 Torrey Pines San Dieguito
7 857 Poway Poway
8 855 Del Norte Poway
8 855 Rancho Bernardo Poway
9 851 Westview Poway

Carmel Valley Elementary School 2010 API

Del Mar 2010 2009 Change
Ashley Falls 952 955 -3
Carmel Del Mar 943 948 -5
Del Mar Heights 965 948 +17
Del Mar Hills 923 924 -1
Ocean Air 981 975 +6
Sage Canyon 973 976 -3
Sycamore Ridge 965 959 +6
Torrey Hills 955 962 -7

Solana Beach 2010 2009 Change
Carmel Creek 947 947 0
Skyline 911 910 +1
Solana Hlands 942 942 0
Solana Pacific 963 940 +23
Solana Santa Fe 934 940 -6
Solana Vista 892 905 -13

Poway Unified School District 2010 API

Poway Unified School District 2010 Academic Performance Index (API)

Schools 2010 API 2009 API

Elementary Schools
Adobe Bluffs Elementary 946 932
Canyon View Elementary 935 925
Chaparral Elementary 928 926
Creekside Elementary 947 946
Deer Canyon Elementary 954 956
Del Sur Elementary 954 902
Garden Road Elementary 892 864
Highland Ranch Elementary 906 903
Los Peñasquitos Elementary 915 917
Midland Elementary 911 903
Monterey Ridge Elementary 927 929
Morning Creek Elementary 882 867
Painted Rock Elementary 916 907
Park Village Elementary 944 949
Pomerado Elementary 857 877
Rolling Hills Elementary 924 905
Shoal Creek Elementary 908 895
Stone Ranch Elementary 954 941
Sundance Elementary 913 921
Sunset Hills Elementary 867 883
Tierra Bonita Elementary 907 883
Turtleback Elementary 914 919
Valley Elementary 825 812
Westwood Elementary 914 916
Willow Grove Elementary 939 927
Middle Schools
Bernardo Heights Middle 899 893
Black Mountain Middle 884 875
Meadowbrook Middle 859 856
Mesa Verde Middle 930 927
Oak Valley Middle 915 895
Twin Peaks Middle 888 879
High Schools
Del Norte High 855 n/a
Mt. Carmel High 818 815
Poway High 857 850
Rancho Bernardo High 855 841
Westview High 851 848

HUD offers homes at HALF prices to Firefighters and Teachers etc.

According to this article, the HUD is offering homes at HALF the price to certain government employees including firefighters, police officers, emergency medical techs, and best of all teachers, with a program called "GOOD NEIGHBOR NEXT DOOR". If you qualify, you only need to pay half the appraised price.The catch is that these homes are located in "revitalization areas", which means not-so-good neighborhoods. And you need to live there for minimum 3 years.

Check Crime Map (Rate)

http://mapping.arjis.org/CrimeMAPS/main.aspx

Motorola's New Mobility Spinoff May Pick San Diego as Its Headquarter

According to this article, Motorola's new mobility spinoff (making cell phones) headed by former Qualcomm executive, Sanjay Jha, will likely to pick San Diego as its new headquarter. If that happens, it should generate some buying demand here.

The Foreclosure Report

State	Notice of Default	Notice of Sale	Back to Bank	Sold to 3rd Party
Arizona	n/a	-12.2%	-2.0%	-5.8%
California	+16.7%	+2.7%	+20.3%	-0.4%
Nevada	-7.5%	-3.34%	-12.0%	+26.2%
Washington	n/a	-15.6%	-10.3%	-15.6%
Oregon	+10.7%	+9.3%	+27.6%	-8.0%

California
Notices of Default filings, the first step in the foreclosure process, jumped 16.6 percent in August, the fourth successive increase in as many months. Fewer homeowners found foreclosure relief as foreclosure cancellations dropped 11.2 percent while more homes were lost, up 15.6 percent to 17,841 foreclosure sales.

Top Foreclosure ZIP codes in San Diego County:

92054

92126

91910

92105

91911

92154

92114

91950

92083

92021

92115

91977

Highland Village cooling down

由于前一段接二连三的release, 最近market疲软， HV现在还有2套Plan1 available, 价格在48万左右。 Plan2还有一套53万。 而Plan3也还剩一个55.6万。 人见人爱的Plan4仍然售迄。

Now SUPER low mortgage rate that can get even lower..

The 30y fixed high balance is only 4.5% with no cost. This was unthinkable even weeks ago. Now some experts are predicting 3.x% rate for 30yr fixed this winter.

It is hard to imagine what kind impact/effect it will have in the future given such cheap loans are given to so many home owners. There was news that FED even gave non-financial companies like IBM 1% loan in hope that they can create more jobs. Is this creative or insane? I guess given the current thinking from FED anything can happen.

Vacation 结束

I am back to work today.

推荐一个小孩玩的地方（北京）

这个是新开业的。

http://www.dianping.com/shop/3705697_p2#ur

挺贵的门票。 小孩160， 大人20.

老大比较会赚钱， 做了主持人，修车手，法官， 空少， 果汁店店员， 特种部队队员，等等。
老二做了育婴护士，蛋糕店店员， 果汁店店员，还有牙医。

二个人都玩的超级high。

里面很干净， 感觉还是井井有条的管理。而且是小group的孩子一起进去。

小孩高兴就好。 我就累坏了可。

Talavera by Davidson at 4S Ranch

Plan 1 - 3451 sf

Plan 2 - 3780 sf

Plan 3: 3870 sf

Plan 4: 4053 sf

Travata by Standard Pacific at 4S Ranch

Site Plan

---

Plan 1 - Villa Francesca 4  Bedrooms,  4.5 Bathrooms From $827,900 3,552-3,812 Sq. Ft.

---

Plan 2 - Villa Molino 5  Bedrooms,  4.5 Bathrooms From $845,900 3,676-3,877 Sq. Ft.

---

Plan 3 - Alessar 5  Bedrooms,  4.5 Bathrooms From $848,900 3,726-3,976 Sq. Ft.

---

 

4S Ranch - Reunion

Reunion: 03-06, Davidson, 一共66家。Paseo de linda, Sienna Hills Dr, Camino San Thomas.

Site Plan

---

Residence One3,594 sf 4 Bedrooms plus bonus room,   office, and optional retreat 3.5 Baths 2-car plus compact tandem garage	Lower Level
	Upper Level

---

Residence Two 3,804 sf 5 Bedrooms plus bonus room,   or bedroom 6, or retreat 3.5 Baths Interior courtyard Optional outdoor kitchen Split 3-car garage	Lower Level
	Upper Level

---

Residence Three 4,151-4,419 sf 5 Bedrooms and loft or   bedroom 6 and optional master retreat 4.5 Baths Dining hall w/ wine room Optional retreat Interior courtyard 2-car plus tandem garage	Lower Level
	Upper Level

---

回国感想1

北京的低碳生活和团购生活

北京的私家车数量增长速度惊人。 汽车尾气污染严重。 一个月内就几天是雨后可以看到蓝天。

但是同时，北京近来提倡低碳生活。 对于普通的北京人啥叫低碳呢？

各大超市都不给塑料袋。 结账的时候大家都拿出自带的布口袋装好东西走人。 实在没有带呢，塑料袋是要交钱买的。

虽然私家车很多，但是骑自行车的人更多。 还有很多人骑电动车。 电动车可以充电， 速度适中，还可以带人。 真应该在美国也普及一下。

住在清华的好处是有几大食堂可以换着样的吃。 不用自己做饭， 也算是低碳了吧。

可是倡导低碳，私家车这么多，虽然每天都限号出行，不过我觉得车还是比从前多了好多。 小区里很多人家都是一家2辆车。

团购现在很热。 你能想到的，什么都可以团。 都知道人多好办事儿，已经有无数的团购网站，QQ群，围脖来牵线搭桥，招呼大家一起团购了。 团比自己去买价格低很多，而且还能感觉到众乐乐，而乐而不为呢。

Testimonial

Dear Connie,

Thanks for getting us a fine house in Carmel Valley. It was such a pleasant experience; I started with knowing nothing about the market, but ended up quickly in settling into a cozy new house we love.

Please keep us informed of the real estate in this area. It may not take long for us to start over the process with you again!

Best,
Yong Cang & Feng Gao

Home sale slows in May

On new home sale reported by commerce dpt: Sales of new single-family homes plunged 33% in May to a record-low level. Sales dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000, the lowest since records began in 1963. April's sales pace was revised down to 446,000 compared with the 504,000 originally reported. March's sales were also revised lower.

For existing home: The National Association of Realtors said sales fell 2.2 percent month over month to an annual rate of 5.66 million units from an upwardly revised 5.79 million-unit pace in April.

Foreclosed properties and short sales accounted for 31 percent of transactions last month, the Realtors group said, with first-time buyers representing 46 percent.
Despite the weak sales, the supply of previously owned homes on the market fell 3.4 percent to 3.89 million units. The national median home price rose 2.7 percent from May last year to $179,600, the highest level since July.

Mortgage rate at record low

You can get jumbo conforming 30yr fixed at 4.875% for no fee, no cost; or 4.75% for a bit fee. 5/1 ARM at 3.75%.

Strategic Defaulters: New Trend in Mortgage Defaults

More and more homeowners who can pay their loans but opt not to. They live in their home FOR FREE without paying mortgage,while they are in the process of foreclosure or short sale. We call them: strategic defaulters --they are "more than we have ever experienced before."

The foreclosure process is taking 13 to 14 months, and so there's over A YEAR of FREE RENT.

31 percent of foreclosures in March were deemed to be "strategic default"!!

我今年年初有一个short sale，于芸芸offer中好不容易拿到。 等了n久, seller从third party那里听来可以free rent, 竟然就不卖了！free 住几个月，对financial 情况不太好的short sale卖家还是很难抗拒的～所以，short sale还是能不沾就不沾吧。 变数实在太多了！

Terramar

Things are going very well with their releases: ALL GONE on the first day.

Phase 5: (Silver Ivy Lane)

Lot 16: 804K
Lot 17: 785K
Lot 18: 751K
Lot 19: 773K
Lot 20: 806K
Lot 58: 756K
Lot 59: 782K

Bank of America Modified 0.6 million Loans Since Jan 2008

BOA has completed about 56,400 permanent mortgage modifications under Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), and has now completed a total of more than 600,000 modifications through all available programs since January 2008-- Among them, 115,000 were converted this year.

In the first quarter of this year, Bank of America loaned $70 billion to 320,000 customers to purchase a home or refinance their existing first mortgage.

Thus we can see that BOA has modified about 2 quaters worth of loans.

John Paulson bullish on housing

CNBC reports that John Paulson, who made $15B by betting against housing in 2008, just held a conference call with investors late April. He's predicting a V-shaped recovery and a major housing recovery. Specifically, he sees prices rising 3-5% in 2010 and 8-12% in 2011.But it is notmuch of a shock. Paulson recently launched a housing recovery fund through which he's making significant bets on rising prices in the wests. He is also betting big on gold.

BTW, Warren Buffett said earlier this week, the economy has begun to show real strength over the last couple months, and consumers who can afford to are spending more!

一幅关于中国房地产的漫画

AVOID A HOME REMODELING NIGHTMARE

Under state law, the down payment for home-improvement projects cannot exceed $1,000 or 10% of the price, whichever is less.

The rest of their saga is documented on Jody Costello's website, ContractorsFromHell.com, which she created in 2000 to provide information and resources on home remodeling, hiring contractors and homeowners' rights.

"People assume if the contractor is licensed, that's enough," said Costello, who believes it is homeowners' job to ensure that their rights are protected.

Industry watchdogs agree that checking the license is only a baby step for homeowners embarking on a remodeling project. If you want a successful outcome, you must assume responsibility for making sure that the contractor is competent and fair and that the work is done correctly -- right down to the brand, style and finish of that new kitchen faucet.

"Homeowners have to put on their detective hats," said Costello, whose website gets 10,000 to 15,000 hits a month. She recommends checking court records for any litigation involving a prospective contractor, as well as checking out his liability insurance. "Contact the insurance company and get the coverage dates," she said. As extreme as it may sound, she and others recommend actually reading the policy, a feat for those homeowners who can't even wade through their own policies.

But there is good reason to be cautious. The Contractors State License Board investigates more than 20,000 complaints each year against contractors, about a quarter of whom are unlicensed.

Potential for trouble

The board files 400 to 500 "accusations" annually against licensed contractors, which can result in disciplinary actions including possible license revocation.

Arron Latt, managing partner of Encino-based Project Management Collaborative, is the guy who often gets the call after a building project spirals into trouble and lands in court.

Angie's List Local RatingRead Local Ratings & Reviews. Find Contractors in Your Area!www.AngiesList.com/ContractorReview

New Homes Sale Biggest Monthly Jump in 47 Years, Thanks to the $8000..

New home sales rose 27 percent in March, bouncing off February's record low.

The rise in new home sales was seen nationwide. Sales grew a whopping 44 percent in the South and 36 percent in the Northeast. They also rose about 6 percent in the West and 3 percent in the Midwest.

Major homebuilders like Lennar, Hovnanian and MDC. are aggressively promoting countdowns to April 30 or "last chance" sales on their websites.

Still, new home sales are down 70 percent from their peak in July 2005, and some analysts predict they will sink back to the winter's dismal levels after the tax credit runs out.

No More State Tax on Forgiven Debt

Enacted into law yesterday, Distressed homeowners no longer have to pay California state income tax on debt forgiven in a short sale, foreclosure, or loan modification. 这么做，short sale更有持无恐了。

Andalusia new release

Plan 1: 630K

Plan 2:

LOT 1002 665K 7244 sf
LOT 1004 658K 6889 sf
LOT 1008 667K 7074 sf
LOT 1012 663K 6777 sf

Plan 3:
LOT 1006 668K 7032 sf
LOT 1011 677K 7044 sf

Plan 4:

LOT 1001 701K 7125 sf
LOT 1005 693K 6827 sf
LOT 1009 701K 8372 sf

92130

现在有96个房子pending, 其中有22个是7天之内pending的。 看房，写offer, negotiation, 无一不要眼快，手快，心快. 真有种让人觉得“一夜回到旧社会"的感觉啊。

卖掉北京城可以买下半个美国

北京全市土地面积16410平方公里。其中平原面积6338平方公里，山区面积10072平方公里。即使考虑到山区的综合利用率低，不算计价范围以内，理论上北京平原地区土地总市值为22万亿人民币，相当于美国地价总值的1/2以上，买下半个美国尚有余钱。

当然，以上预测并没有考虑到在实际市场环境下，6338平方公里土地推出市场，对地价的打压作用，推论并不十分科学严谨
　　
　　过去的10年，政府在社会保障方面的投入远远不足，“两会”之后，仓促间推出“住房双轨制”，北京市政府计划50%的新增用地投向社会保障性住房，在没有土地增量的情况下，强行划走商品房用地份额，无视中产阶层以及“城市新移民”的刚性需求，只能让房价越涨越高，越来越离谱。

BofA to start reducing mortgage principal (AP)

Bank of America Corp., the largest mortgage servicer in the country, said Wednesday it will forgive up to 30 percent of some customers' total mortgage balances. The homeowners must have missed at least two months of mortgage payments and owe at least 20 percent more than their home is currently worth. The borrowers must also qualify for the Obama administration's $75 billion mortgage loan modification program.
According to new plan, which begins in May, Bank of America will first offer to set aside a portion of the principal balance, interest free. That principal can be forgiven over five years, if homeowners don't miss any payments. The maximum decrease in principal will be 30 percent.

Good news! Gov. Schwarzenegger signed Assembly Bill 183, the Homebuyer Tax Credit legislation, into law

The eligible taxpayer who purchases a qualified personal residence on and after May 1, 2010, and on or before Dec. 31, 2010, or who purchases a qualified principal residence on and after Dec. 31, 2010, and before Aug. 1, 2011, pursuant to an enforceable contract executed on or before Dec. 31, 2010, will be able to take the allowed tax credit. The credit is equal to the lesser of 5 percent of the purchase price or $10,000, in equal installments over three consecutive years. Under AB 183, purchasers will be required to live in the home for at least two years or forfeit the credit (i.e., repay it to the state).

Ashley Falls Closing?

Several clients brought it up to me that they heard the rumor says that Ashley Falls will be closing. I did some research...

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2009/aug/28/parents-challenge-idea-close-campus/

As for Ashley Falls closing , that was an issue last year – but, as far as I know, it has been resolved. The Del Mar School district announced several months ago that Ashley Falls is not going to be shut down for several reasons. One of the reasons that stood out was because there were too many legal ramifications because of the Mello-Roos that is paid by all of the homeowners in the neighborhoods surrounding Ashley Falls. We had it was a remote possibility that Ashley Falls could be closing as a disclosure last summer but when the Del Mar School district made an announcement before the end of the year, that Ashley Falls school would not be closed – the disclosure was no longer needed. If you are in any doubt, I recommend that you call the Del Mar School district to verify what I am saying.

Testimonial

最近太猛了，2周close了5个房子。好在买到房子的同学们都很开心。 我没有要求任何人给我写testimonial, 但是今天早上收到一个客户的email, that makes my day :)

Hi Connie

We moved in the house on Sunday after a simple upgrade. We have been busy on unpacking all these days, but there are still some boxes in the garage. We also bought some furnitures, and we are all very happy with our new home, so thank you very much for helping us settle down such a great place.

Again, we really appreciate your excellent service.

Best,

Ming @ Scripps Ranch

Facts about Home Buyer Credit

First-time home buyer tax credit upto $8000 or 10% of purchase price is available for contracts by April 30, 2010 (close by June 30, 2010). Income limits are $125k for singles, $225k for couples.

A new $6500 long-time home buyer credit is available for home buyers who have owned a principal home for 5 years and now is upgrading. Contract before April 30, 2010. Income limits are the same as above.

To claim the credit, a copy of Form HUD-1, settlement statement are required. For new construction, if settlement statement is not available, a certificate of occupancy is required. For long-time home buyers, in addition to above documents, mortgage statement/property tax documents/home insurance etc showing 5 years consecutive residence are required.

To be considered as first-time buyer, you either never owned a home as principle residence or didnot have a principle residence during the last 3 years.

楼市春晚

道尽房奴辛酸

虽然是讲的国内，但是心有戚戚。 很快就可能被河蟹了。 赶快看看吧。

Manzanita Trail new release on March 6

Lot 49 = 875K 3B

Lot 51 = 865K 3A

Lot 48 = 899K 4AR

Lot 50 = 915K 4DR

Lot 52 = 907K 4BR

All sold on the release date.

FIRPTA

1980年之前，外国公司/人在美国投资房地产出售获利之后，因为人不在美国，也不报任何所得税(Capital Gain or Business income)，美国国家税务局(IRS)也没有办法追缴，所以，就制定了对于外国人在美国进行房地产投资方面的税务规定，英文就是Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA) 。

FIRPTA主要内容: 对于符合IRS定义的"外国人"和"外国公司"在出售房地产是不管是否盈利均预扣成交价的10%(可能从2007年有更加详细的百分比)作为美国联邦所得税款,这笔钱是由过户公司扣留然后交给美国国家税务局IRS.在年底,卖主要如实申报必要的税收,IRS根据报税结果,再退还多余的部分,如果年终,卖主没有报税,IRS就扣留这笔款.
如果你没有赚钱,IRS就不会让你交任何税,这要看你的报税的情况决定.

IRS定义的外国人是:
一年中在美国居住的时间没有超过183天的外国人.所以,一个非美国公民,非美国永久居民,如果是在长期居住的,诸如工作签证(H1)的外国公民 ,也不是IRS所定义的外国人.

如果属于IRS定义中的外国人，自住的房子：业主是自住(没有住过半年) ，但出售时价格不超过30万美元，就与正常的交易一样，过户公司就不会预扣10%的成交价。但是有一个条件，就是买主买了之后也是自住的。

所以，这个豁免有三个条件，必须同时满足：买主，卖主均是自住(不是投资物业)，成交价不超过30万美元。

如果不属于IRS豁免的范围，那么在过户时就要被过户公司预扣10%的成交价。如果有获利，获利部分要交纳所得税，税率至少21%左右(因为税法可能有变化，只能给出大概范围)。如何是超过一年的投资的话，税率就会低一些，估计是15%左右。



比如加州的外国人(外州人)房地产投资的税法就很值得注意。加州的法律要求，凡不是加州的居民，这当然包括外国人，在卖房地产时要被预扣3.33%成交价来纳税，当然多余的本分会退回给卖主。

New release of Manzanita Trail -- Price increase of 50K

Lot 49 3B 875
Lot 51 3A 865
Lot 48 4A 899
Lot 50 4D 915
Lot 52 4B 907

Sold in 10 minutes.

Without Tax Credits, Housing Market Is Flat

The housing market is flat, with 2010 home sales likely to be equal to last year’s if you subtract the effect of the tax credits, says Tom Lawler, noted housing economist.

He believes that until more jobs are created, housing is likely to remain in the doldrums, but not in free fall. A significant recovery will depend on interest rates remaining affordable and limiting the number of homes in foreclosure, as well as rising employment, he says.

Highland Village

新的Townhouse小区，位于Torrey Hill.

一共167家。 1274-2069 sf.

HOA is 268/ month for now. MR在60-85之间。

第一天开盘人非常的多。 应该未来是CV又一popular的小区。

关于water pipes

很多买家看房子的时候都会问，这个房子的水管是铜管还是PB的。

一般来说，Polybutylene (简称PB)是一种类似塑料的材料，以其低廉的造价和容易安装，广泛的应用在于1978年到1995年左右建造的房子。 PB的水管有蓝色的，灰色的，还有黑色的。

怎么能看出来房子用的是铜管还是PB， 很多的home inspector也都会推辞让你去找专业的水管工(plumper）来看。 有一些signs你可以观察来确定水管的材质：

Exterior - Polybutylene underground water mains are usually blue, but may be gray or black (do not confuse black poly with polyethelene pipe). It is usually 1/2" or 1" in diameter, and it may be found entering your home through the basement wall or floor, concrete slab or coming up through your crawlspace; frequently it enters the home near the water heater. Your main shutoff valve is attached to the end of the water main. Also, you should check at the water meter that is located at the street, near the city water main. It is wise to check at both ends of the pipe because we have found cases where copper pipe enters the home, and poly pipe is at the water meter. Obviously, both pipes were used and connected somewhere underground.

Interior - Polybutylene used inside your home can be found near the water heater, running across the ceiling in unfinished basements, and coming out of the walls to feed sinks and toilets. Warning: In some regions of the country plumbers used copper "stub outs" where the pipe exits a wall to feed a fixture, so seeing copper here does not mean that you do not have poly. Any gray plastic pipe could be poly. Look at pipes near the water heater. See what kind of pipe runs across the ceiling in an unfinished basement. Check the pipe that comes out of walls to feed sinks and toilets. Many properties have a combination of copper and poly pipes.

为什么说PB管不好？

因为水的PH值可能偏酸或者偏碱，然后很多地方的水里含有oxidants， 会和PB管起一些反应，最后引起管子变脆。 整个水管系统就会慢慢的损坏。

买房子的时候，建议问清楚卖家和listing agent, 水管是不是PB的。 然后可以检查sink 下面，around 热水器， 看有没有灰色，黑色和蓝色的管子。 如果你不sure, ask your home inspector or plumber.

Earthquakes in Carmel Valley and Sorrento Valley

Earthquakes in Carmel Valley and Sorrento Valley：San Diego Fault Lines (Source: USGS.GOV)


Earthquakes in Carmel Valley and Sorrento Valley.

Testimonial: Lago Di Grata

Connie, I and my husband very enjoy working with you. Thanks for being our agent in this difficult market. You were always available and interested in our concerns.We were impressed with your experience, ethics, professionalism, knowledge of Carmel Valley, and marketing research. We will recommed to our friends for buying or selling a house.

WSJ: No Exit in Sight for US as Fannie, Freddie Flail

Fannie and Freddie remain troubled wards of the state, with no blueprints for the future and no clear exit strategy for the government. Nearly a year and a half after the outbreak of the global economic crisis, many of the problems that contributed to it haven't yet been tamed. On Dec. 24, Treasury said there would be no limit to the taxpayer money it was willing to deploy over the next three years to keep the two companies afloat, doing away with the previous limit of $200 billion per company. As mortgage delinquencies rise, Fannie and Freddie are required to set aside more capital to cover anticipated losses. Each quarter, if their revenues are insufficient to meet those financial needs, the Treasury has to kick in more money.

Fannie's CEO Mr. Haldeman stated recently that they were "fortunate" to have such a clear mission—the government's foreclosure-prevention drive. "We're doing what's best for the country," he told them. "We're making decisions on [loan modifications] and other issues, without being guided solely by profitability.

Together with the Federal Housing Administration, they fund 9 out 10 American mortgages.

PIIGS and Sovereign Debt Crisis

我们都知道以中国为首的金砖四国（BRIC), 现在又出来了个新名词，叫猪猪五国：PIGGS - P(ortugal)I(reland)I(taly)G(reece)S(pain)，这五个国家都是负债大国。上面是一个从FT.com转的一个图。
大家看看美国也好不到哪去呀。

x,y 轴分别是 fiscal deficit as % of GDP versus total debt divided by GDP

Terremar Model Home Pictures

http://www.pardeehomes.com/torrey-highlands/terramar/

Coming soon: HIGHLANDS VILLAGE

Carmel Valley Highlands Village

• Five versatile floor plans
• Two to four bedrooms + loft
• Two and one-half baths
• Approx. 1,274 to 2,069 square feet
• From the low $500,000s

Preview of 4S Ranch new communities

Realtor only preview event this afternoon.

我4点到的已经人山人海了。 我直接就奔靠里面的Monteluz去了。 里面只有3个agent. 后来到Andalusia的时候真的有点水泄不通的感觉了。Agent的名单legal size的纸2页满满的。 小字一点点，我好不容易才找到自己的名字。

价钱一边是low 600K, 一边high 600K。

房子的结构：2边的plan1都是ranch, 没有太多可说的，感觉都挺像的。 2边的plan2 都是我的favorite. Andalusia的plan 3是一进门是formal dining, 然后楼梯堵在那里，实在是bad design.

2边的sales都认识，不但认识，还很熟，是以前JH的sales, 2个一边一位。 What a nice surprise!见到就兴奋的hug上了。 还遇到了好几个熟识的agent & Del Sur/Maybeck的sales. 真是热闹啊。

下面release的房子都在建，听说是4月就可以close了。

我拍了一点点的vid, 效果不是很好，因为很多agent走来走去的。

Andalusia:

Plan1 : 625,900
Plan2: 647,900 - 659,900
Plan3: 661,900 - 663,900
Plan4: 682,900 - 686,900

Monteluz:

Plan1: 667,900 - 672,900
Plan2: 715,900 - 721,900
Plan3: 732,900 - 767,900