Freddie Mac reports a decline in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 5.78 percent during the week ended Sept. 18 from 5.93 percent the prior week, marking the lowest level in seven months.
During the same period, the 15-year mortgage rate dropped to 5.35 percent from 5.54 percent.
Meanwhile, interest on five-year adjustable mortgages slipped to 5.67 percent from 5.87 percent; and the one-year ARM slid to 5.03 percent from 5.21 percent.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Life Is...One Long Negotiation
Slow market...You are never going to find more affordable choices.
Improving market...I'd suggest offering closer to list price.
Buyers...Yes, I think the sellers will accept this price if you close in 30 days.
Sellers...No, I really can't reduce my commission that much.
Parents...What will it take to get you to clean up your room?
Children...Please, I just have to stay out pas midnight this one time.
最近帮客户讨价还价比较多。 毕竟是buyer's market, 每个人都squeezing hard to get the best deal. 我觉得讨价还价的一个关键是你要知道你的底线， 然后坚持这个bottom line. 只有这样你去讨的时候才能有底气。 另外也要研究清楚对方的底线，知道对方的goal和motivation。 这样成功率也会高一些。 不过说到底，能不能成功，还是由市场决定的。还有一点很多人都没有意识到就是，第一次没有成功没有关系，等一等，再试一下。
我觉得有些人天生就是个好的谈判者，不会紧张，不会露底，从和对方的谈话中就能听出一个以丑丁卯来。 所以说，negotiate这个事，也是需要有天赋的还。
Improving market...I'd suggest offering closer to list price.
Buyers...Yes, I think the sellers will accept this price if you close in 30 days.
Sellers...No, I really can't reduce my commission that much.
Parents...What will it take to get you to clean up your room?
Children...Please, I just have to stay out pas midnight this one time.
最近帮客户讨价还价比较多。 毕竟是buyer's market, 每个人都squeezing hard to get the best deal. 我觉得讨价还价的一个关键是你要知道你的底线， 然后坚持这个bottom line. 只有这样你去讨的时候才能有底气。 另外也要研究清楚对方的底线，知道对方的goal和motivation。 这样成功率也会高一些。 不过说到底，能不能成功，还是由市场决定的。还有一点很多人都没有意识到就是，第一次没有成功没有关系，等一等，再试一下。
我觉得有些人天生就是个好的谈判者，不会紧张，不会露底，从和对方的谈话中就能听出一个以丑丁卯来。 所以说，negotiate这个事，也是需要有天赋的还。
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Low-ball offer?
在现在的市场情况下，很多buyer都make low ball offer. 先照着明年今日的价格砍价。 作为agent, 我不得不说几句：
省钱是没错的，绝对有理，但是同时，出一个low ball may be actually hurting your chances of either getting the home or getting the home at a good price by simply wanting to make a "low-ball" offer.
The seller's asking price may already be below market value. Too many buyers simply look at the asking price and subtract a random amount without understanding how the asking price relates to the value of the home. If the asking price is already below market value, you may miss your chance of buying a great home if you insist on making an unreasonable offer. Other buyers, who are willing to learn about, and understand, the market, will get that home before you even have a chance to negotiate.
It's commonly thought that by substantially low-balling a price, you will have more successful negotiation. Negotiation isn't about extremes in the position you take. 其实being reasonable is the key to getting the terms that you want. 其实当前对卖家来说，有很多因素可能比价格更重要更优先。 比如Financing, amount of down payment, whether you have a home to sell, how many days to close escrow, etc. are all terms that make your offer weaker or stronger and should be considered when putting together an initial offer and throughout the negotiation process.
If you come in with so low of a price with terms that aren't valuable to a seller you run the risk of making the seller take as hard a line as you do. This invariably leads to less reasonable behavior because now you've become adversaries. By starting off with, and negotiating, a fair deal, the seller is usually more likely to make concessions (including pricing, closing costs, and other important terms) than if you come to the table with an offer that is not particularly valuable to the seller.
The key to beginning a successful negotiation is to make the seller WANT to work with you. You never accomplish this by coming in with an unreasonably low offer. If the seller sees value in your offer and doesn't want your offer to disappear, you will have more leverage and ability to get the deal that benefits you.
Some things to consider:
在你出low ball offer 的同时，问一下你自己， 如果这个房子被别人买走， 你不会觉得后悔吧。 你愿意take 这个risk吧. 做一些reasearch, 看看附近的具有可比性的房子最近都卖了多少钱。
了解一下有多少个offer了，一般listing agent都会告诉你的agent这些Information。 Understand the strong and the weak points of your offer. You can't have it all because the seller wants a good deal too. If you have a home to sell and you want the seller to accept the risk of a contingency, you may need to be willing to offer a higher price than if you didn't have that same contingency.
Understand the current market. Don't just read the papers or listen to the news about what is happening in the real estate market. Talk to professionals in the area to gain first-hand knowledge and advice. It's important to know where the market is going so you can modify your position as needed.
Make sure you understand how interest rates on your loan can change your buying power. You and the seller may be arguing about a few thousand dollars, but if the interest rates go up, you will probably pay more in interest in the long run than those few thousand dollars would have added to your payment.
省钱是没错的，绝对有理，但是同时，出一个low ball may be actually hurting your chances of either getting the home or getting the home at a good price by simply wanting to make a "low-ball" offer.
The seller's asking price may already be below market value. Too many buyers simply look at the asking price and subtract a random amount without understanding how the asking price relates to the value of the home. If the asking price is already below market value, you may miss your chance of buying a great home if you insist on making an unreasonable offer. Other buyers, who are willing to learn about, and understand, the market, will get that home before you even have a chance to negotiate.
It's commonly thought that by substantially low-balling a price, you will have more successful negotiation. Negotiation isn't about extremes in the position you take. 其实being reasonable is the key to getting the terms that you want. 其实当前对卖家来说，有很多因素可能比价格更重要更优先。 比如Financing, amount of down payment, whether you have a home to sell, how many days to close escrow, etc. are all terms that make your offer weaker or stronger and should be considered when putting together an initial offer and throughout the negotiation process.
If you come in with so low of a price with terms that aren't valuable to a seller you run the risk of making the seller take as hard a line as you do. This invariably leads to less reasonable behavior because now you've become adversaries. By starting off with, and negotiating, a fair deal, the seller is usually more likely to make concessions (including pricing, closing costs, and other important terms) than if you come to the table with an offer that is not particularly valuable to the seller.
The key to beginning a successful negotiation is to make the seller WANT to work with you. You never accomplish this by coming in with an unreasonably low offer. If the seller sees value in your offer and doesn't want your offer to disappear, you will have more leverage and ability to get the deal that benefits you.
Some things to consider:
在你出low ball offer 的同时，问一下你自己， 如果这个房子被别人买走， 你不会觉得后悔吧。 你愿意take 这个risk吧. 做一些reasearch, 看看附近的具有可比性的房子最近都卖了多少钱。
了解一下有多少个offer了，一般listing agent都会告诉你的agent这些Information。 Understand the strong and the weak points of your offer. You can't have it all because the seller wants a good deal too. If you have a home to sell and you want the seller to accept the risk of a contingency, you may need to be willing to offer a higher price than if you didn't have that same contingency.
Understand the current market. Don't just read the papers or listen to the news about what is happening in the real estate market. Talk to professionals in the area to gain first-hand knowledge and advice. It's important to know where the market is going so you can modify your position as needed.
Make sure you understand how interest rates on your loan can change your buying power. You and the seller may be arguing about a few thousand dollars, but if the interest rates go up, you will probably pay more in interest in the long run than those few thousand dollars would have added to your payment.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Pardee is going to release a new home site
It's called Manzanita Trail.
Portico就还剩下停车场这一块地了。 虽然上面2个release都还剩下几套没有卖， Pardee已经要move on 准备后面的Manzanita Trail了。 Location非常非常好， 而且和Portico一样也会是Porch front 的设计。 大小是2346到3060. 拭目以待。我想价格应该是上million的了。
另外这里是Portico最后一个release的， 都还available:
plan 1:
lot 38 & lot 43 -- 688K
Plan 2:
lot 40 -- 702K
lot 51 -- 744K (Includes upgrades)
Plan 3:
lot 42 --733K
lot 48 & 50: -- 743K & 738K
Plan 4:
Lot 37, 39 & 41: 717K & 737K
Lot 49: 747K
HOA已经涨了， 现在是209一个月。
Mello Roos: 268一个月。 一共是477每个月。
Portico就还剩下停车场这一块地了。 虽然上面2个release都还剩下几套没有卖， Pardee已经要move on 准备后面的Manzanita Trail了。 Location非常非常好， 而且和Portico一样也会是Porch front 的设计。 大小是2346到3060. 拭目以待。我想价格应该是上million的了。
另外这里是Portico最后一个release的， 都还available:
plan 1:
lot 38 & lot 43 -- 688K
Plan 2:
lot 40 -- 702K
lot 51 -- 744K (Includes upgrades)
Plan 3:
lot 42 --733K
lot 48 & 50: -- 743K & 738K
Plan 4:
Lot 37, 39 & 41: 717K & 737K
Lot 49: 747K
HOA已经涨了， 现在是209一个月。
Mello Roos: 268一个月。 一共是477每个月。
Thursday, August 21, 2008
缘分就是。。。
8月8号真是好日子， 我有2个客户同时卖掉了在东部的房子（在市场上小半年）于当天escrow. 然后一周后又双双的买了房子在16号签了合同。 而这2个客户是在DMV考驾照的时候认识的。 这不是缘分是什么呢？
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Volunteer
看到奥运会有那么多的志愿者服务， 是不是很感动？感动之余是不是想行动？
http://www.volunteermatch.org/
http://www.sdycs.org/site/PageServer?pagename=home
http://www.volunteersandiego.org/HomePage/index.php/home.html
http://www.volunteermatch.org/
http://www.sdycs.org/site/PageServer?pagename=home
http://www.volunteersandiego.org/HomePage/index.php/home.html
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Monday, June 30, 2008
Chanteclair in 4S ranch
Phase 3B
Lot 505: 680K
Lot 511: 684K
Lot 512：713K
Lot 507: 673K (3025)
Lot 509: 665K (3025)
Lot 513: 711K (3025)
Lot 538： 677K (3025)
Lot 506: 668K (3080)
Lot 508: 674K (3080)
Lot 510: 681K (3281)
Lot 514: 702K (3080)
Lot 539: 689K (3281)
Lot 505 to 511 backed on school. 513 and 514 have views (on top of the school).
Friday, June 27, 2008
Solar Water Heaters Now Required in Hawaii
I think San Diego should do the same thing. Let's see...
Hawaii is the first state to pass a law requiring that new homes have solar hot water heaters, beginning in 2010.
Hawaii relies totally on imported fossil fuels. This is a first step toward eliminating this dependence.
The new law prohibits issuing building permits for single-family homes that do not have solar water heaters. Some exceptions will be allowed, such as forested areas where there are low rates of sunshine.
Opponents say the law will drive up the cost of already pricey housing.
Hawaii is the first state to pass a law requiring that new homes have solar hot water heaters, beginning in 2010.
Hawaii relies totally on imported fossil fuels. This is a first step toward eliminating this dependence.
The new law prohibits issuing building permits for single-family homes that do not have solar water heaters. Some exceptions will be allowed, such as forested areas where there are low rates of sunshine.
Opponents say the law will drive up the cost of already pricey housing.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Short Sales vs. REOs
With the real estate market changing, we're seeing an increase in sellers who want or need to sell their property because they can't make their mortgage payments. Many of them will be facing possible foreclosure. As a buyer, you may see or hear the words, "Short Sale," and "REO," quite often. What is the difference, and is there a benefit to buying one or the other?
First, a short sale happens when a homeowner wants to sell their home, but owes more than what the house can sell for. For example, let's say a homeowner has a $400,000 mortgage on their home but can now only sell the home for $350,000. If they sell the home for $350,000, they'll have to still come up with the extra $50,000 that they owe the bank to pay back the full amount of the mortgage. If they don't have $50,000, and if they don't have other assets available, they may ask the bank if they can come up "short" on what they owe, and pay the bank $350,000, having the bank "forgive" the other $50,000. Sounds good, right? Well, first, they don't have a right to have the bank forgive the amount that is still owed; the bank will decide whether they will take less than is owed. Also, there may be negative tax and credit consequences to the homeowner.
In contrast, an REO (Real Estate Owned), is property that used to be owned by someone, the owner didn't make the mortgage payments, the bank went through the foreclosure process, and now owns the property.
In my experience, buyers who would like to buy a short sale have to be extremely patient and not get too attached to the home that they want. The homeowner still owns the home, but it's the bank who will decide whether to deal with the sale or not. Sometimes a bank doesn't even bother with an offer at this stage; I made an offer for a client on a short sale about 6 weeks ago and the bank still hasn't even assigned someone to review it! (We are now in escrow on another property).
With REOs I have found that it is much easier to get a response. The home is now the bank's asset and they seem to be much more motivated to sell it. Not that it completely smooth, but I have found it to be easier to help buyers buy REOs than to buy short sale properties.
With both short sales and REOs, you really have the bank dictating terms that they will accept, so you don't have too much power over many of the terms of the sale. With REOs I find that it's easier to negotiate a lower price and some closing cost credits; with short sales, the bank really has no motivation to take a lower price or give any kind of credits. With both, if you get into escrow, you will usually have a shorter investigation/inspection and escrow period and probably won't get a home warranty or repairs.
My conclusion? If it's between a short sale and an REO, my opinion is that you can get a better price and some credits and you can at least get a response from the bank. Of course, this can be different depending on the specific home and specific bank involved.
2008/8/26 Connie
After trying to make offers for my clients on short sales, I have "lovingly" termed them "virtual sales."
Like a lot of areas, San Diego has its share of short sales (home sales where the owner owes more to the lender than what the home can sell for). Although the borrower/seller still owns the home, the bank has to approve the contract because they have to agree to take less than what is owed to it. So many buyers enjoy the idea of the short sale because the price usually looks attractive, but so few actually end up selling.
cash
Three motivated buyers, three different offers, all the same result:
Buyer 1: We made an offer for the home back in October. We still have not heard an answer (even to this day), so my clients bought a different (non-short sale) home.
Buyer 2: We made a full price offer on a home in December. We never heard anything, except that an answer was "coming soon." My client got so tired of hearing that, that he recently bought a different home and has now closed escrow. The area that the short sale home is located in has gone down in price so I doubt that it can be sold for what my client offered.
Buyer 3: We made a full price offer on a home, also in December. Finally, after 5 weeks, the bank came back and wanted $30,000 more. My clients have moved on.
Although I know that a portion of short sales actually sell, it's amazing to me how difficult it is to actually get a bank's cooperation. I understand that the banks have other priorities and that they need a lot of information before they will approve a sort sale, but if there is a willing, able and motivated buyer, it seems to be in everyone's best interest to actually sell the home rather than let it go into foreclosure, costing the bank more money.
I can only imagine how frustrating it must be for the listing agents too. I have seen listing agents bend over backwards to get a short sale to be approved only to face the same frustration.
Until banks become more motivated to work to on short sales, I counsel my clients about the pitfalls and risks of those "virtual sales," and let my clients decide whether they want to wait it out. I have to explain that the list price isn't necessarily the price the bank will approve. More often than not, my best buyers decide that waiting for a bank just isn't worth it and will move on to other properties.
First, a short sale happens when a homeowner wants to sell their home, but owes more than what the house can sell for. For example, let's say a homeowner has a $400,000 mortgage on their home but can now only sell the home for $350,000. If they sell the home for $350,000, they'll have to still come up with the extra $50,000 that they owe the bank to pay back the full amount of the mortgage. If they don't have $50,000, and if they don't have other assets available, they may ask the bank if they can come up "short" on what they owe, and pay the bank $350,000, having the bank "forgive" the other $50,000. Sounds good, right? Well, first, they don't have a right to have the bank forgive the amount that is still owed; the bank will decide whether they will take less than is owed. Also, there may be negative tax and credit consequences to the homeowner.
In contrast, an REO (Real Estate Owned), is property that used to be owned by someone, the owner didn't make the mortgage payments, the bank went through the foreclosure process, and now owns the property.
In my experience, buyers who would like to buy a short sale have to be extremely patient and not get too attached to the home that they want. The homeowner still owns the home, but it's the bank who will decide whether to deal with the sale or not. Sometimes a bank doesn't even bother with an offer at this stage; I made an offer for a client on a short sale about 6 weeks ago and the bank still hasn't even assigned someone to review it! (We are now in escrow on another property).
With REOs I have found that it is much easier to get a response. The home is now the bank's asset and they seem to be much more motivated to sell it. Not that it completely smooth, but I have found it to be easier to help buyers buy REOs than to buy short sale properties.
With both short sales and REOs, you really have the bank dictating terms that they will accept, so you don't have too much power over many of the terms of the sale. With REOs I find that it's easier to negotiate a lower price and some closing cost credits; with short sales, the bank really has no motivation to take a lower price or give any kind of credits. With both, if you get into escrow, you will usually have a shorter investigation/inspection and escrow period and probably won't get a home warranty or repairs.
My conclusion? If it's between a short sale and an REO, my opinion is that you can get a better price and some credits and you can at least get a response from the bank. Of course, this can be different depending on the specific home and specific bank involved.
2008/8/26 Connie
After trying to make offers for my clients on short sales, I have "lovingly" termed them "virtual sales."
Like a lot of areas, San Diego has its share of short sales (home sales where the owner owes more to the lender than what the home can sell for). Although the borrower/seller still owns the home, the bank has to approve the contract because they have to agree to take less than what is owed to it. So many buyers enjoy the idea of the short sale because the price usually looks attractive, but so few actually end up selling.
cash
Three motivated buyers, three different offers, all the same result:
Buyer 1: We made an offer for the home back in October. We still have not heard an answer (even to this day), so my clients bought a different (non-short sale) home.
Buyer 2: We made a full price offer on a home in December. We never heard anything, except that an answer was "coming soon." My client got so tired of hearing that, that he recently bought a different home and has now closed escrow. The area that the short sale home is located in has gone down in price so I doubt that it can be sold for what my client offered.
Buyer 3: We made a full price offer on a home, also in December. Finally, after 5 weeks, the bank came back and wanted $30,000 more. My clients have moved on.
Although I know that a portion of short sales actually sell, it's amazing to me how difficult it is to actually get a bank's cooperation. I understand that the banks have other priorities and that they need a lot of information before they will approve a sort sale, but if there is a willing, able and motivated buyer, it seems to be in everyone's best interest to actually sell the home rather than let it go into foreclosure, costing the bank more money.
I can only imagine how frustrating it must be for the listing agents too. I have seen listing agents bend over backwards to get a short sale to be approved only to face the same frustration.
Until banks become more motivated to work to on short sales, I counsel my clients about the pitfalls and risks of those "virtual sales," and let my clients decide whether they want to wait it out. I have to explain that the list price isn't necessarily the price the bank will approve. More often than not, my best buyers decide that waiting for a bank just isn't worth it and will move on to other properties.
Chandeclair 3A
Chandeclair:
Phase 3A -- June 18th, 2008
Plan 1:
562: 710K (Den, Bed4, Granite,SS Appliances,Maple Cabinets)
565: 688K
568: 677K
Plan 2: All have bed 6 which converted from 3rd garage)
561: 688K
564: 684K
567: 711K
538: 681K
Plan 3:
563: 695K (3281 sf with bed 6)
566: 681K (3080 sf)
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
经典！次贷危机的通俗解释 （ZZ）
在美国，贷款是非常普遍的现象，
从房子到汽车，从信用卡到电话账单，贷款无处不在。
当地人很少一次现金买房，通常都是长时间贷款。
可是我们也知道，在美国失业和再就业是很常见的现象。
这些收入并不稳定甚至根本没有收入的人，他们怎么买房子呢？
因为信用等级达不到标准，他们就被定义为次级贷款者。
大约从10年前开始，
那个时候贷款公司漫天的广告就出现在电视上、报纸上、街头，
抑或在你的信箱里塞满诱人的传单：
『你想过中产阶级的生活吗？买房吧！』
『积蓄不够吗？贷款吧！』
『没有收入吗？找阿囧贷款公司吧！』
『首次付款也付不起？我们提供零首付！』
『担心利息太高？头两年我们提供3％的优惠利率！』
『每个月还是付不起？没关系，头24个月你只需要支付利息，贷款的本金可以两年后
再付！
想想看，两年后你肯定已经找到工作或者被提升为经理了，到时候还怕付不起！』
『担心两年后还是还不起？哎呀，你也真是太小心了，
看看现在的房子比两年前涨了多少，到时候你转手卖给别人啊，
不仅白住两年，还可能赚一笔呢！再说了，又不用你出钱，
我都相信你一定行的，难道我敢贷，你还不敢借？』
在这样的诱惑下，无数美国市民毫不犹豫地选择了贷款买房。
（你替他们担心两年后的债务？向来相当乐观的美国市民会告诉你，
演电影的都能当上州长，两年后说不定我还能竞选总统呢。）
阿囧贷款公司短短几个月就取得了惊人的业绩，
可是钱都贷出去了，能不能收回来呢？
公司的董事长--阿囧先生，那也是熟读美国经济史的人物，
不可能不知道房地产市场也是有风险的，
所以这笔收益看来不能独吞，要找个合伙人分担风险才行。
于是阿囧找到美国财经界的领头大哥--投资银行。
这些家伙可都是名字响当当的大哥（美林、高盛、摩根），
他们每天做什么呢？就是吃饱了闲着也是闲着，
于是找来诺贝尔经济学家，找来哈佛教授，找来财务工程人员，
用上最新的经济数据模型，一番金融炼丹（copula 差不多是此时炼出）之后，
弄出几份分析报告，从而评价一下某某股票是否值得买进，
某某国家的股市已经有泡沫了，这一群在风险评估市场呼风唤雨的大哥，
你说他们看到这里面有没有风险？
开玩笑，风险是用脚都看得到！可是有利润啊，那还犹豫什么，接手吧！
于是经济学家、财务工程人员，大学教授以数据模型、随机模拟评估之后，
重新包装一下，就弄出了新产品--CDO
（注： Collateralized Debt Obligation，债务抵押债券），
说穿了就是债券，通过发行和销售这个CDO债券，让债券的持有人来分担房屋贷款的
风险。
光这样卖，风险太高还是没人买啊，
假设原来的债券风险等级是 6，属于中等偏高。
于是投资银行把它分成高级和普通CDO两个部分(trench)，
发生债务危机时，高级CDO享有优先赔付的权利。
这样两部分的风险等级分别变成了 4 和 8，总风险不变，
但是前者就属于中低风险债券了，凭投资银行三寸不烂"金"舌，
在高级饭店不断办研讨会，
送精美制作的powerpoints 和 excel spreadsheets，当然卖了个满堂彩！
可是剩下的风险等级 8 的高风险债券怎么办呢？避险基金又是什么人，
于是投资银行找到了避险基金，
那可是在全世界金融界买空卖多、呼风唤雨的角色，
过的就是刀口舔血的日子，这点风险简直小意思！
于是凭借着关系，在世界范围内找利率最低的银行借来钱，
然后大举买入这部分普通CDO债券，
2006年以前，日本央行贷款利率仅为1.5％；
普通 CDO 利率可能达到12％，
所以光靠利差避险基金就赚得满满满了。
这样一来，奇妙的事情发生了，
2001年末，美国的房地产一路飙升，短短几年就翻了一倍多，
天呀，这样一来就如同阿囧贷款公司开头的广告一样，
根本不会出现还不起房屋贷款的事情，
就算没钱还，把房子一卖还可以赚一笔钱。
结果是从贷款买房的人，到阿囧贷款公司，到各大投资银行，到各个一般银行，
到避险基金人人都赚钱，
但是投资银行却不太高兴了！
当初是觉得普通 CDO 风险太高，才丢给避险基金的，
没想到这帮家伙比自己赚的还多，净值拼命地涨，早知道自己留着玩了，
于是投资银行也开始买入避险基金，打算分一杯羹了。
这就好像阿宅家里有放久了的饭菜，正巧看见隔壁邻居那只讨厌的小花狗，
本来打算毒它一顿，没想到小花狗吃了不但没事，反而还越长越壮了，
阿宅这下可傻眼了，难道发霉了的饭菜营养更好？
于是自己也开始吃了！
这下又把避险基金乐坏了，他们是什么人，
手里有1块钱，就能想办法借10块钱来玩的土匪啊，
现在拿着抢手的CDO当然要大干一票！
于是他们又把手里的 CDO 债券抵押给银行，
换得 10 倍的贷款操作其他金融商品，
然后继续追着投资银行买普通 CDO 。
科科，当初可是签了协议，这些普通 CDO 可都是归我们的！！
投资银行实在心理不爽啊，除了继续闷声买避险基金和卖普通 CDO 给避险基金之
外，
他们又想出了一个新产品，就叫CDS（注：Credit Default Swap，信用违约交换）
好了，华尔街就是这些天才产品的温床：
一般投资人不是都觉得原来的 CDO 风险高吗，
那我弄个保险好了，每年从CDO里面拿出一部分钱作为保险费，
白白送给保险公司，但是将来出了风险，大家一起承担。
以AIG为代表的保险公司想，不错啊，眼下 CDO 这么赚钱，
1分钱都不用出就分利润，这不是每年白送钱给我们吗！
避险基金想，也还可以啦，已经赚了几年了，
以后风险越来越大，光是分一部分利润出去，
就有保险公司承担一半风险！
于是再次皆大欢喜，Win Win Situation！CDS也跟着红了！
但是故事到这还没结束：
因为"聪明"的华尔街人又想出了基于 CDS 的创新产品！
找更多的一般投资大众一起承担，我们假设 CDS 已经为我们带来了 50 亿元的收
益，
现在我新发行一个基金，这个基金是专门投资买入 CDS 的，
显然这个建立在之前一系列产品之上的基金的风险是很高的，
但是我把之前已经赚的 50 亿元投入作为保证金，
如果这个基金发生亏损，那么先用这50亿元垫付，
只有这50亿元亏完了，你投资的本金才会开始亏损，
而在这之前你是可以提前赎回的，首次募集规模 500 亿元。
天哪，还有比这个还爽的基金吗？
1元面额买入的基金，亏到 10% 都不会亏自己的钱，赚了却每分钱都是自己的！
Rating Agencies 看到这个天才的规画，简直是毫不犹豫：给出 AAA 评级！
结果这个基金可卖疯了，各种退休基金、教育基金、理财产品，
甚至其他国家的银行也纷纷买入。
虽然首次募集规模是原定的 500 亿元，
可是后续发行了多少亿，简直已经无法估算了，
但是保证金 50 亿元却没有变。
如果现有规模 5000 亿元，那保证金就只能保证在基金净值不亏到本金的 1% 时才不
会亏钱，
也就是说亏本的机率越来越高。
当时间走到了 2006 年年底，风光了整整 5年的美国房地产终于从顶峰重重摔了下
来，
这条食物链也终于开始断裂。
因为房价下跌，优惠贷款利率的时限到了之后，
先是普通民众无法偿还贷款，
然后阿囧贷款公司倒闭，
避险基金大幅亏损，
继而连累AIG保险公司和贷款的银行，花旗、摩根相继发布巨额亏损报告，
同时投资避险基金的各大投资银行也纷纷亏损，
然后股市大跌，民众普遍亏钱，
无法偿还房贷的民众继续增多，
最终，美国Subprime Crisis 爆发接近成为 Prime Crisis。
从房子到汽车，从信用卡到电话账单，贷款无处不在。
当地人很少一次现金买房，通常都是长时间贷款。
可是我们也知道，在美国失业和再就业是很常见的现象。
这些收入并不稳定甚至根本没有收入的人，他们怎么买房子呢？
因为信用等级达不到标准，他们就被定义为次级贷款者。
大约从10年前开始，
那个时候贷款公司漫天的广告就出现在电视上、报纸上、街头，
抑或在你的信箱里塞满诱人的传单：
『你想过中产阶级的生活吗？买房吧！』
『积蓄不够吗？贷款吧！』
『没有收入吗？找阿囧贷款公司吧！』
『首次付款也付不起？我们提供零首付！』
『担心利息太高？头两年我们提供3％的优惠利率！』
『每个月还是付不起？没关系，头24个月你只需要支付利息，贷款的本金可以两年后
再付！
想想看，两年后你肯定已经找到工作或者被提升为经理了，到时候还怕付不起！』
『担心两年后还是还不起？哎呀，你也真是太小心了，
看看现在的房子比两年前涨了多少，到时候你转手卖给别人啊，
不仅白住两年，还可能赚一笔呢！再说了，又不用你出钱，
我都相信你一定行的，难道我敢贷，你还不敢借？』
在这样的诱惑下，无数美国市民毫不犹豫地选择了贷款买房。
（你替他们担心两年后的债务？向来相当乐观的美国市民会告诉你，
演电影的都能当上州长，两年后说不定我还能竞选总统呢。）
阿囧贷款公司短短几个月就取得了惊人的业绩，
可是钱都贷出去了，能不能收回来呢？
公司的董事长--阿囧先生，那也是熟读美国经济史的人物，
不可能不知道房地产市场也是有风险的，
所以这笔收益看来不能独吞，要找个合伙人分担风险才行。
于是阿囧找到美国财经界的领头大哥--投资银行。
这些家伙可都是名字响当当的大哥（美林、高盛、摩根），
他们每天做什么呢？就是吃饱了闲着也是闲着，
于是找来诺贝尔经济学家，找来哈佛教授，找来财务工程人员，
用上最新的经济数据模型，一番金融炼丹（copula 差不多是此时炼出）之后，
弄出几份分析报告，从而评价一下某某股票是否值得买进，
某某国家的股市已经有泡沫了，这一群在风险评估市场呼风唤雨的大哥，
你说他们看到这里面有没有风险？
开玩笑，风险是用脚都看得到！可是有利润啊，那还犹豫什么，接手吧！
于是经济学家、财务工程人员，大学教授以数据模型、随机模拟评估之后，
重新包装一下，就弄出了新产品--CDO
（注： Collateralized Debt Obligation，债务抵押债券），
说穿了就是债券，通过发行和销售这个CDO债券，让债券的持有人来分担房屋贷款的
风险。
光这样卖，风险太高还是没人买啊，
假设原来的债券风险等级是 6，属于中等偏高。
于是投资银行把它分成高级和普通CDO两个部分(trench)，
发生债务危机时，高级CDO享有优先赔付的权利。
这样两部分的风险等级分别变成了 4 和 8，总风险不变，
但是前者就属于中低风险债券了，凭投资银行三寸不烂"金"舌，
在高级饭店不断办研讨会，
送精美制作的powerpoints 和 excel spreadsheets，当然卖了个满堂彩！
可是剩下的风险等级 8 的高风险债券怎么办呢？避险基金又是什么人，
于是投资银行找到了避险基金，
那可是在全世界金融界买空卖多、呼风唤雨的角色，
过的就是刀口舔血的日子，这点风险简直小意思！
于是凭借着关系，在世界范围内找利率最低的银行借来钱，
然后大举买入这部分普通CDO债券，
2006年以前，日本央行贷款利率仅为1.5％；
普通 CDO 利率可能达到12％，
所以光靠利差避险基金就赚得满满满了。
这样一来，奇妙的事情发生了，
2001年末，美国的房地产一路飙升，短短几年就翻了一倍多，
天呀，这样一来就如同阿囧贷款公司开头的广告一样，
根本不会出现还不起房屋贷款的事情，
就算没钱还，把房子一卖还可以赚一笔钱。
结果是从贷款买房的人，到阿囧贷款公司，到各大投资银行，到各个一般银行，
到避险基金人人都赚钱，
但是投资银行却不太高兴了！
当初是觉得普通 CDO 风险太高，才丢给避险基金的，
没想到这帮家伙比自己赚的还多，净值拼命地涨，早知道自己留着玩了，
于是投资银行也开始买入避险基金，打算分一杯羹了。
这就好像阿宅家里有放久了的饭菜，正巧看见隔壁邻居那只讨厌的小花狗，
本来打算毒它一顿，没想到小花狗吃了不但没事，反而还越长越壮了，
阿宅这下可傻眼了，难道发霉了的饭菜营养更好？
于是自己也开始吃了！
这下又把避险基金乐坏了，他们是什么人，
手里有1块钱，就能想办法借10块钱来玩的土匪啊，
现在拿着抢手的CDO当然要大干一票！
于是他们又把手里的 CDO 债券抵押给银行，
换得 10 倍的贷款操作其他金融商品，
然后继续追着投资银行买普通 CDO 。
科科，当初可是签了协议，这些普通 CDO 可都是归我们的！！
投资银行实在心理不爽啊，除了继续闷声买避险基金和卖普通 CDO 给避险基金之
外，
他们又想出了一个新产品，就叫CDS（注：Credit Default Swap，信用违约交换）
好了，华尔街就是这些天才产品的温床：
一般投资人不是都觉得原来的 CDO 风险高吗，
那我弄个保险好了，每年从CDO里面拿出一部分钱作为保险费，
白白送给保险公司，但是将来出了风险，大家一起承担。
以AIG为代表的保险公司想，不错啊，眼下 CDO 这么赚钱，
1分钱都不用出就分利润，这不是每年白送钱给我们吗！
避险基金想，也还可以啦，已经赚了几年了，
以后风险越来越大，光是分一部分利润出去，
就有保险公司承担一半风险！
于是再次皆大欢喜，Win Win Situation！CDS也跟着红了！
但是故事到这还没结束：
因为"聪明"的华尔街人又想出了基于 CDS 的创新产品！
找更多的一般投资大众一起承担，我们假设 CDS 已经为我们带来了 50 亿元的收
益，
现在我新发行一个基金，这个基金是专门投资买入 CDS 的，
显然这个建立在之前一系列产品之上的基金的风险是很高的，
但是我把之前已经赚的 50 亿元投入作为保证金，
如果这个基金发生亏损，那么先用这50亿元垫付，
只有这50亿元亏完了，你投资的本金才会开始亏损，
而在这之前你是可以提前赎回的，首次募集规模 500 亿元。
天哪，还有比这个还爽的基金吗？
1元面额买入的基金，亏到 10% 都不会亏自己的钱，赚了却每分钱都是自己的！
Rating Agencies 看到这个天才的规画，简直是毫不犹豫：给出 AAA 评级！
结果这个基金可卖疯了，各种退休基金、教育基金、理财产品，
甚至其他国家的银行也纷纷买入。
虽然首次募集规模是原定的 500 亿元，
可是后续发行了多少亿，简直已经无法估算了，
但是保证金 50 亿元却没有变。
如果现有规模 5000 亿元，那保证金就只能保证在基金净值不亏到本金的 1% 时才不
会亏钱，
也就是说亏本的机率越来越高。
当时间走到了 2006 年年底，风光了整整 5年的美国房地产终于从顶峰重重摔了下
来，
这条食物链也终于开始断裂。
因为房价下跌，优惠贷款利率的时限到了之后，
先是普通民众无法偿还贷款，
然后阿囧贷款公司倒闭，
避险基金大幅亏损，
继而连累AIG保险公司和贷款的银行，花旗、摩根相继发布巨额亏损报告，
同时投资避险基金的各大投资银行也纷纷亏损，
然后股市大跌，民众普遍亏钱，
无法偿还房贷的民众继续增多，
最终，美国Subprime Crisis 爆发接近成为 Prime Crisis。
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Some funny comments about Carmel Valley area
1. The great thing about Torrey Hills is you get military helicopters and jet fighter noise at all hours of the day. Free of charge!! Yes, you actually get that for free!
2. People driving around: Soccer moms in SUVs, and mid life crisis dads in bmw's
2. People driving around: Soccer moms in SUVs, and mid life crisis dads in bmw's
CARMEL MTN. RD. EXTENSION
This is very interesting:
For those who interested in Carmel Valley: RUMER SAYS--a new Pardee community scheduled to break ground some time this year or next (I forgot exactly when).
THE CITY HAS APPROVED FUNDING FOR CARMEL MTN. RD. TO BE CONNECTED TO LITTLE MCGONIGLE RANCH RD. (FORMERLY DEL MAR MESA RD.) THE PLANS FOR THIS ROAD ON CURRENTLY ON HOLD UNTIL THE SHAW LORENZ COMMUNITY IS COMPLETED BY PARDEE (CONSTRUCTYION ON THE LUXURY COMMUNITY IS SET TO BEGIN 4-17-08). WHEN THE ROAD IS CONSTRUCTED IT WILL BE A TWO-LANE (ONE IN EACH DIRECTION), MEANDERING ROAD (NO MORE THAN 60' WIDE) CONNECTING CARMEL COUNTRY HIGHLANDS TO DEL MAR MESA. IT WILL BE LESS THAN ONE MILE IN LENGTH AND WILL TRAVERSE THE OPEN SPACE OF LOS PENASQUITOS RESERVE. INCLUDED IN THEPROJECT WILL BE A WILD-LIFE CROSSING UNDER CARMEL MTN RD AND A MULTI-USE (FOOT/BIKE PATH) TRAIL WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED. THIS WILL NOT DIRECTLY CONNECT TO THE 56! CONSERVATIONISTS AND RESIDENTS HAVE OPPOSED THIS. I HAVE VERIFICATION OF THIS FROM THE CITY OF SD. THIS WILL BE A SMALL ROAD (NOTHING LIKE CARMEL COUNTRY RD) FOR THE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND LOCAL RESIDENTS TO ACCESS."
Interest rates are climbing
and most experts agree that they will continue to do so, despite the Fed's decision to hold for now. Someone in mortgage business told me she would not be surprised to see rates as high as 8-9% by year end.
关于和builder讨价还价
很多人都问我whether or not it's realistic to get some percentage off the builder's listed price? How much can you "negotiate" with the builder? 很多诸如此类的问题。
现在4S的builder都卖的还可以， 虽然比较slow. 我都有不止一次陪客户去讨价还价的经历，基本上都是无功而返的。 我知道的几个圣地亚哥所谓的“金牌” agent去讨价还价一样没有luck. Working out price reductions with the builders基本上是很难的。
我总是觉得it doesn't hurt to give it a try. You will never know but at least you tried.
不过另外一个advice就是你有什么砝码去Negotiate. 无非就是你不要了， walk away.
Your best leverage would be leverage you develop over time. The more guts you have to look the sales lady in the eye and make a demand and walk away if they don't meet your demand, then the more you may get in the long run if you are in it for the long run. That is, you can accept walking away and then coming back a few months later.
对于建筑商来说，最不愿意做的就是降价钱。 他们宁可送你upgrades. 当然了They may claim they are giving you 50k in incentives or upgrades when in reality it may cost them 40-60% of that in materials in labor...
所以， give it a try and good luck!
现在4S的builder都卖的还可以， 虽然比较slow. 我都有不止一次陪客户去讨价还价的经历，基本上都是无功而返的。 我知道的几个圣地亚哥所谓的“金牌” agent去讨价还价一样没有luck. Working out price reductions with the builders基本上是很难的。
我总是觉得it doesn't hurt to give it a try. You will never know but at least you tried.
不过另外一个advice就是你有什么砝码去Negotiate. 无非就是你不要了， walk away.
Your best leverage would be leverage you develop over time. The more guts you have to look the sales lady in the eye and make a demand and walk away if they don't meet your demand, then the more you may get in the long run if you are in it for the long run. That is, you can accept walking away and then coming back a few months later.
对于建筑商来说，最不愿意做的就是降价钱。 他们宁可送你upgrades. 当然了They may claim they are giving you 50k in incentives or upgrades when in reality it may cost them 40-60% of that in materials in labor...
所以， give it a try and good luck!
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Websites that I use for checking the rates
Some quick and easy ways to check on average mortgage rate:
http://www.bankrate.com/
http://www.aimloan.com/
http://www.ericfang.com/
http://www.bankrate.com/
http://www.aimloan.com/
http://www.ericfang.com/
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