Now and then - Carmel Valley in 2003 & 2004

Carmel Valley celebrates its 20-year anniversary. The first building permits for Carmel Valley were issued to Pardee in 1983 for the initial phase of 5,000 homes, Pardee eventually acquired about a third of the 4,360-acre Carmel Valley planning area along with Baldwin Homes.

• Ground breaks on the new Canyon Crest Academy and on its neighbor down the street, Cathedral Catholic.

• Ground breaks on St. Therese of Carmel parish and neighboring Notre Dame Academy.

• Arson fires of four homes under construction in Torrey Highlands and Carmel Valley caused more than $1 million in damages. The arsons are attributed eco-terrorist group Earth Liberation Front. Another arson, considered a hate crime, is committed at the Congregation Beth Am, causing $35,000 worth of damage.

2004

• Local planning groups oppose a proposed Home Depot in Sorrento Valley. Groups are also up in arms over lights at the Carmel Valley Community Park South. The park, which would become Ocean Air Community Park, wouldn’t open until 2009—with lit basketball courts and ball fields.

• Earl Warren Middle School turned 50 years old and ground breaks on Sycamore Ridge School.

• In July, the last 4.5 miles of State Route 56 opens, linking Interstate 15 with Interstate 5. City Councilman Brian Maienchein said, “This will allow people to get home five or 10 minutes quicker…and just have time for their quality of life rather than sitting in traffic.”

• Canyon Crest Academy opens in September to 372 students. Half of campus remained under construction and students attended in portables in the parking lot.

• San Diego Jewish Academy unveils the 10-foot high menorah on their campus.

• The Carmel Mountain Road bridge is completed, paving the way for the $35 million Torrey Hills Vons Center to begin construction in the late fall.

Now and then - Carmel Valley in 2001 & 2002

• The Solana Beach School District aimed to buy 10-acres of Pardee-owned land next to the Carmel Valley Library for a third Carmel Valley school Solana Pacific.

• St. William of York parishioners in Carmel Valley raise funds to build a new church—the church, St. Therese of Carmel, would open in 2008. Canyon Hills Community Church also begins an expansion, it is now known as Grace Point.

2002
• Vista Sorrento Parkway opens as well as Carmel Knolls Park and the Torrey Highlands Dog Park.

• The tug-of-war continues on the vacant Townsgate Drive site as Pardee even proposes building a theater to enhance Carmel Valley’s town center. SBSD still wants 10 acres for a school and parents protested Pardee for blocking the sale of the land

In December, the district voted to condemn the land, giving them the right to seize the land from Pardee under eminent domain at fair market value. The district breaks ground on the new school in 2003.
A lawsuit isn’t settled until 2004, when Pardee got $41 million for the land—SBSD originally wanted to pay $24 million.

•City Council voted that 56 acres of Del Mar Mesa would become part of the Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP). The acquisition brings the total acreage preserved on the Mesa to 344 acres.

• More than 150 people attend heated Del Mar school district meetings on boundary changes to alleviate an overcrowded Ashley Falls School, ending a period of open boundaries in the district. Also in the Del Mar school district, early Wednesday dismissal begins.

• The San Dieguito Union High School District is concerned about an overcrowded Torrey Pines High, with 3,200 students expected in the fall.

• A new gate is placed at the entrance to the Carmel Mountain Preserve to prevent vehicles from wreaking havoc on 300 acres of protected open space.

• Torrey Hills Community Coalition fights the placement of biotech projects near their elementary school.

Now and Then: Carmel Valley back in 2000

• Ground breaks on the San Diego Jewish Academy.

• Sage Canyon School opens.

• Torrey Pines High School turned 25 years old.

• Pardee Homes sells its visitor center property on El Camino Real for $900,000. It's skate park later.

• $24 million sports center in Carmel Valley—Pacific Athletic Club.

• New home construction booms and planning begins for Pacific Highlands Ranch. Construction begins on Signature Point, the housing complex across from Del Mar Highlands Town Center


• A group called FANGS, Families Against Neighborhood Gas Stations, opposes a Chevron gas station planned for East Ocean Air Drive and Carmel Mountain Road. The fight continues until 2002, when Chevron abandons their plans.

• Torrey Hills Community Park opens.

4s Ranch 一篇很好的介绍文章

这篇文章是我的一个客户在bbs写的。 4S孩子的活动特别丰富多彩。课后班有育才，园泉，新东方。游泳有Noonan，Pacific。各种体育班就更不用说了。左邻右舍的中国人大家可以互相照应，孩子今天这里串串门，明天那里兜兜，十分快乐，家长也省心。公园更是一个赛过一个，那个著名的Water Park现在围上了高高的是非本地居民不许入内的。 老人们也很幸福，今天去图书馆打打麻将(图书馆长是中国人），明天去Monterey Ridge小学前的菜地垦垦荒，再到公园里去跳跳舞，打打牌，唠唠嗑。 白领们六七十万就可以住3000多尺的新房，购物比CV方便多了。 我觉得唯一不好的就是上班开车可能远了点， Mello Roos高了点。另外中国人多，孩子竞争可能有点激烈，但另一方面来说，学区以后一定会更好。父母心态好就没事了。 4S是设计得奖的社区，那么多精明能干的中国人都选择在那里安家一定是有他们的道理的。 （虽然我不住在4S,我的朋友大部分住那里。因为我住的有点远，错过了许多饭局。他们经常问我后不后悔没给他们做邻居。其实我现在一个星期还是往那里逛好几次的。） 原文的连接在这里 http://www.mitbbs.com/bbsann2/chinese.faq/SanDiego/apartment/rent/M.1321840813_2.y0/%5B%BA%CF%BC%AF%5D+%D3%D0%C8%CB%D7%A14S%C2%F0%3F

胡掰一下

看了一下，7月份看过的房子，基本上都pending了。说明咱看上和房子还都不错?

天上掉馅饼

是不可能的。

好deal都是有reason的。

其实也没有什么好deal, 所谓的好deal, 买到的人其实不一定喜欢。 还在后悔。

所以别再找好deal了。 找你喜欢的房子。

因为，那是你的家。

每天早上起来，你庆幸自己住在这里。 而不是另外任何一个房子里。

圣地亚哥的小学介绍

San Diego School District and Schools

圣地亚哥的学区，公立学校不错的，按地区算:

Carmel Valley (92130 对应的学区是Del Mar Union, Solona Beach)

Rancho Panasquitos  ( 92129 对应的学区是Poway)

4S Ranch ( 92127 对应的学区是Poway)

Scripps Ranch (92130 对应学区是San Diego Unified）

La Jolla (92037 对应学区是San Diego Unified)

圣地亚哥的公立小学优秀的很多， 比较著名的像Carmel Valley的 Sage Canyon, Ocean air, Carmel Creek, Torrey Hill, Ashley Fall, Sycamore Ridge.  Poway的Creekside, Deer Canyon, Stone Ranch。 Scripps Ranch的Dingeman, Ellen Browning。

不过要注意的是，基本上除了Carmel Valley, 其他地区并不是所有的房子所处的位置都能进好的学校。 而且，好学区和好学校又是有区别的。进了好学区（比如Poway) 又不一定能进的好学校。 

小学这里是从K开始，相当于国内的学前班吧。 小学毕业有的学校是5年纪，有的是6年纪。 Carmel Valley 的小学都是一直到6年纪。 从7年纪开始是才初中。 从9年纪开始是高中， 高中4年。 而Poway和San Diego United的小学全部是到5年纪。 到了6年纪就是初中。 这是个很重要的区别。 我个人觉得，对于男孩来说，早一点去上初中也没有什么不好，女孩子晚一点去上初中没有什么不好。 当然，每个孩子的情况不同。 比如说，我有的客户从外地搬过来，他们那里和poway学区一样也是6年纪初中，搬到这里去CV 上学的话她要重新回小学去上学了，小姑娘就觉得不高兴。  题外话， 对孩子的信心有些小打击噢。

从小学说起，大家都知道美国的教育普遍重视教学的过程。 小学的K， 1年纪做很多的手工。 剪贴，粘，画画， 没有条条框框，自由发挥。 很多人觉得美国小孩都不学习，上课特别随便。 其实不是的。 小学对小孩子的洗脑和培养纪律性还是相当的重视和的。上二年级，三年级之后强调Reading, 增强词汇量，还有理解力。 作文也很重要。 同时数学也加强了很多。从二年级开始，学生可以参加gate考试， 就是智商测验。 Poway和San Diego United 都有gate program, San Diego United的gate program叫Seminar program。 能进gate program对孩子也是学习上的一个鼓励和动力。

小学的作业不多，每天基本上要求阅读，老师非常鼓励和强调读书的重要性，像我女儿现在一年级，一周才有一次作业，但是每天都可以从老师在教室里面的图书馆里面借书拿回家看。 

怎么衡量一个学校？ 加州有一个指数叫做API， Academic Performance Index. http://www.cde.ca.gov/ta/ac/ap/

这个指数每年9月公布，并不是单单根据学校的学生考试成绩来的，他还会看学校成绩相比去年的增长。 每个学校的API报告是公开的。 数据包括这个学校学生的总人数， 其中各个族裔有几个人， 每个族裔的API的分数是多少。 和上一年相比的情况。 举例说明，Carmel Valley的最好的小学之一Sage Canyon, 他全校的API是982分， （相对于其他小学950都算是高的了， 这个分数是远远领先）。 他们学校里面亚裔有138个，亚裔的API是993， 而西班牙裔是966， 白人是974.  说明这个小学各个族裔的学习成绩差距不大。 有的小学这3中族裔的分数可是远远拉开的，这个就不举例了。

固然，大部分人判断一个学校的好坏都盯着学校的API。 这个是硬指标。 是数据。 而我个人觉得，一个学校的软性指标才最重要。 首先，老师最重要。 一个有爱心，负责，有经验的老师比任何考试成绩说明问题。 其次，学校的学生构成，家长，家庭构成。 学校的PTA（家长老师联合会）是不是很活跃，能为学校的各种活动拉经费和摇旗呐喊。 一个很强的PTA能积极参与到学校的方方面面，团结所有的家长为学校添砖加瓦，集思广益的组织有趣的课内课外活动。 让学生有更强烈的归属感和自豪感，能也交到各种好朋友。 对孩子的成长非常有好处。

一个搬到湾区的客户的来信

我一个客户搬到湾区了。 今天给我发来了一个email,  她让我给post到我的blog上 --
=======================================================================

我已劝说好几个中国妈妈别再来搅乱弯区的房市，给我们这些工薪阶层带来更大的压力。但她们居然不熟悉圣地亚哥。你帮我看着XXX的房子，有机会我还要回来。

最近我们在买房，真是惊叹于湾区人民的富裕。关键是有市场，这还是符合价值规律的。一百多万的房子，竟然经常见到cash-buyer。而且有不少竟是在卖投资房。几年前当我们刚刚来到湾区的时候，还认为自己的工资比较高，又是双职工，在湾区整套像样的房子，过上富足的生活不成问题。几年下来终于认识到，在湾区只凭工资吃饭是很紧张的。湾区人有钱，为什么？不是工资高。因为湾区的工资没有比其他地方翻倍，但是房价翻了一倍都不止，又是高物价，高税收的城市。湾区有钱人应该是这几种：
1。公司高官。湾区公司太多了，都是高科技新贵。公司多，高管也多。（中国是高官有钱，美国是高管有钱！）
2。Start-up 多，成功的Start-up相应地也多。一旦一个Start-up成功，就会造就若干，甚至上千的平民富翁。(Google 是个例子，Facebook应该也快了。)
3。还有亚洲各国的富豪，尤其是中国的高官，新贵。他们要来美国置业，当然首选湾区。因为华人社区好，华人服务好，天气好。
4。还有各级从商的人们。就买卖房屋上说，湾区的房屋agent，贷款agent就多如牛毛。并不是说这些人都有钱，但是这些人中间走在食物链上端的那部分，哪个不是腰缠几百万。
所以生活在湾区，若要舒舒服服地买栋房，一定要成为有钱人。不然，只有两条路：搬离湾区，或者背着重债住在小黑屋里。

Worst day since Oct. 08 - DJ 掉 513 点

double dip的谣言要成为预言了。

buyer们普遍缺乏信心。

加上贷款上限下调。

人心惶惶～

日子还要过，上有老下有小的我们房子也不能不买。

买了的现在也来不及后悔。 赶紧趁着rate好抓紧refin吧。

这就是市场，有人说是机会，有人唉声叹气, 有人无动于衷。

我们能做什么？

和买房无关。

动车的事情。 谁看了都心痛。

我们能做什么呢？

只能做好自己。

中国什么时候能以人为本？ 希望这一页别那么容易就翻过去。

纽约时报今天转载广为流传的微博：
中國，請停下你飛奔的腳步，等一等你的人民，等一等你的靈魂，等一等你的道德，等一等你的良知！不要讓列車脫軌，不要讓橋樑坍塌，不要讓道路成為陷阱，不要讓房屋成為廢墟。慢點走，讓每一個生命都享有自由和尊嚴。每一個個體，都不應該被這個時代拋棄.

Case-Shiller housing data: April 2011

Market	MoM Change	YoY Change	Peaked In...	Change from Peak	Prices Last at This Level in...	# of Months of Decrease
Phoenix	0.1%	-8.8%	Jun-06	-55.9%	Jan-00	0
LA	0.3%	-2.1%	Sep-06	-38.6%	Sep-03	0
San Diego	0.4%	-4.3%	Nov-05	-38.3%	Dec-02	0
Bay Area	1.7%	-5.5%	May-06	-39.5%	Jan-01	0
Denver	1.5%	-4.1%	Aug-06	-12.8%	Aug-01	0
DC Area	3.0%	4.0%	May-06	-25.6%	May-04	0
Atlanta	1.6%	-3.5%	Jul-07	-25.3%	Mar-00	0
Chicago	-0.4%	-8.6%	Sep-06	-34.7%	Mar-01	8
Boston	-0.2%	-4.2%	Sep-05	-19.4%	Sep-02	9
Las Vegas	-0.7%	-6.2%	Aug-06	-58.9%	Mar-99	7
New York	0.8%	-2.8%	Jun-06	-23.9%	Jan-04	0
Portland	0.1%	-9.2%	Jul-07	-28.8%	Sep-04	0
Dallas	0.5%	-4.0%	Jun-07	-10.4%	Apr-02	0
Seattle	1.6%	-6.9%	Jul-07	-29.7%	Aug-04	0
20 City Index	0.7%	-4.0%	Jul-06	-32.8%	Apr-03	0

Tight Credit Continues to Shut Buyers Out

For example, Amy Menell told The Wall Street Journal how a bank denied her for a home loan, despite her credit score being above 800, no debt, and having a down payment of more than 50 percent of the cost of the $400,000 home. However, Menell, who was in the process of finalizing a divorce, works as a real estate agent and didn’t have much income in 2009. While her business has picked up since then, she did not have the two years of documented income the banks wanted to process her loan application.

Other qualified buyers coming with good credit scores and credit histories are also finding themselves unable to get a home loan. Those who are having the toughest time are those who have seen their incomes drop or interrupted by a time of unemployment and self-employed applicants. Lenders don’t appear to have plans to ease credit soon either. Nearly four in 10 banks reported even tighter mortgage lending standards for the 12-month period ended in February, according to a survey by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Terramar 2011

Funny: the Great Wallet of China

Rezone for Poway school district affecting 4S Ranch

Poway school District excludes two older communities (Bernardo Point and the Summit) got voted "yes" yesterday at board meeting. Bernardo Point was selling for higher price because they are gated and no mello-roos. They have easy access to Monterey Ridge too. They are now assigned to Turtleback Elementary School. H

Monterey Ridge currently enrolls 956 students. Next school year MRES will have 1,120 students. By 2017/18, it is expected to have 1,416 students!!

高压线

经专家鉴定

这个是10万伏的高压线。 有辐射，但是还好。

My client was on Union Tribune

Click here to see the whole article.

My client was signing contract that day when Union Tribune came to the site for an interview. That is really cool~

“Jumbo” Mortgage is Set to Expire in Oct, 2011

On Oct. 1, the maximum loan amount that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is set to decrease from $729,750 to $625,500. This might make mortgages more expensive or more difficult to get for buyers in high-cost areas, MSNBC.com reports.

For example, after Oct. 1, a borrower who seeks a government-backed mortgage for a $1-million property may have to come up with a $370,000 down payment instead of $270,000, Rob Chrisman, a mortgage banking consultant from San Rafael, Calif., told MSNBC.

Up until 2008, any loan more than $418,000 was considered a jumbo loan, but that later swelled to $625,500 and then was temporarily set at $729,750 (which expires at the end of September).

Once the current jumbo loan limit expires, lenders who want to make loans over $625,500 either will have to hold onto the mortgage themselves or find a private investor to purchase it.

Terramar 2011 Summer

2 new subdivision in - Pines & Willows

Here is what I heard -- there were 6 builders including CA west (builder for Andalucia and Monte Luz) bidding for the last lot in 4S and Pulte homes won the bid.

So there they are -- with 2 new subdivision coming up in 4S Ranch. I sure hope this is the last development in 4S. Monterey Ridge has over 1,000 students already! Still growing. Dr. Newman said at one site council meeting that he would really reluctant to build those trailer classrooms but eventually he gave up.

Pines: 2679 sf to 3262 sf. (I really liked their plan 3) High 600K to Low 700K.

Willows: 3353 sf to 3586 sf Low 700K to High 700K. Total homes 50. Tax & Mello Roos 1.9%.

Where Are We in This Housing Market?

A picture is worth a thousand words.

我个人的感觉是，如果您需要购房自住，现在是很好的买房时机，因为现在的房价和2009年初基本持平。如果投资并能达到正现金流，现在也是很好的时机。如果已经有房或rental，应该转向其他比房地产更好的投资方向。

中国的房地产泡沫和两难。Housing bubbles in China

Empty cities and malls in China. On one side millions of unoccupied houses, on the other side, millions can't afford one.

美国人的收入金字塔

Thought the picture is eye popping.

Another set of data, the top 1% in US account for 25% of total income, and command 40% of total wealth.

记我们4S Ranch 图书馆的馆长

地处4S Ranch的商业中心，并且存有丰富的中文书以及中文影碟的图书馆，是住在4S Ranch的居民的好去处。  去图书馆泡，可以去看书，还可以参加各种丰富多彩的活动，更可以认识很多志同道合的朋友。 

最特别的是4S Ranch图书馆的馆长June Zhou, 是一位大家都很爱戴的女士。 她热心，勤力， 负责， 为4S的中国人社区做了很多的事情。 周馆长的耐心是有目共睹的， 她总是不厌其烦地回答大家的各种问题， 有好多人宁愿多等一会也要找她借书。尤其是老年人，都觉得周馆长没有任何架子，总是和蔼可亲，有求必应。 

周立青馆长是从上海师范大学英文专业毕业的。 毕业后来到美国在State of New York Stony 攻读图书馆专业。 1993年拿到硕士学位之后就在纽约的皇后区的图书馆工作，这里是全美最大的图书馆之一。 周馆长在这里工作了5年， 积累了丰富的图书馆工作经验，尤其是和少数族裔打交道的经验。 因为皇后区的图书馆非常注重为新移民搞活动，办各种帮助他们适应美国生活的学习班。 之后周馆长随先生搬到新泽西州， 一个机缘巧合她找到了一份在图书发行公司的工作。 这个工作促使她到全国各地的图书馆出差，帮助当地的图书馆做引进新书的工作。 这个工作她一做就是5年。 在这5年里学到了很多选书的门道，怎样根据不同大小，面对不同的读者来选取不同的藏书。 通过这份工作她也积累了很多的人脉和关系。 当时，正好圣地亚哥这里开建一个新的图书馆在Rancho San Diego。 通过帮他们买新书，她第一次和圣地亚哥结缘了。 2004年，先生转来圣地亚哥工作， 刚好圣地亚哥的图书馆有一个空缺， 而这个职位又刚好是经手买书的职位。 简直就是perfect match!  就这样，周立青全家就搬来了美丽的圣地亚哥。 

在圣地亚哥的图书馆， 周馆长负责帮助各个分馆选购图书， 和各个出版商，发行商打交道。 要说到选书， 这里的学问也很大。 不同的地区，不同的人口分布，有完全不同的需要。 还有不断的根据书的出借情况不断的及时调整。 2008年4S Ranch的分馆open, 她也负责帮助这个新的图书馆来挑选图书。 当时研究人口分布图的时候，周馆长发现4S非常的多元化，主要人口有印度人，中国人，阿拉伯人，伊朗人，菲律宾，越南，更有很多的法国人和意大利人。 了解了人口分布，对于选书买书就有的放矢了。  

2009年周馆长来到4S Ranch出任馆长的时候，图书馆完全没有任何针对中国人的活动。 她主动和Local organization 联系， 让他们派老师来免费教来探亲的老人们学英文。 这个活动得到了积极的响应。 随后她又联系了一周一次的公民班。 随着本地华人的不断增多， 大家都反映缺少一个聚会和搞活动的场地。 在周馆长的大力支持下， 每个月的第一个星期一，“相聚图书馆”。 而每次都有一个主题，比如做饭， 种花， 中医。 都是大家感兴趣的话题。 来参加的人越来越多。 成为了社区的中国人，尤其是老年人相互交流的中心。 而且每年的中秋，新年，春节， 图书馆都要装饰的漂漂亮亮， 大家聚在一起，其乐融融。 每次周馆长都对老人们亲切招呼， 让大家感到很温暖。 渐渐地， 社区里的中国人都知道周馆长，很多老人不懂英文，就要等着让周馆长帮他们借书。 

除了给社区中国人办的活动，4S Ranch其他的活动也很丰富多彩。 本地人参与到社区图书馆的热情很高， 各种文化的节日都有相应的庆祝活动。 每年的夏天搞的阅读计划，都是整个county图书馆的Record breaking。 在County的33个图书馆中， 4S Ranch的是面积最小的，但是书流量一直排名第九名。 在总馆的例会上也经常被表扬。 每个月都有3万5千本书的书流量， 是相当可观的数字。 而且这个数字一直在不断增长，因为社区的人数一直在增长， 每天都有新搬入社区的人来办理图书证。 

周馆长为了社区的中国人的文化活动， 尽心尽力， 还特别订阅了世界日报和大家都很喜爱的华人。 

Celebrities Face Foreclosure Too

The rich and famous are finding they aren’t immune to foreclosure. In the last six months, actor Nicolas Cage, baseball legend Julius “Dr.J” Erving, and hip-hop artist Chamillionaire have gone through foreclosure proceedings, Reuters News reports.

Morgan Brennan of Forbes.com says strategic defaults are becoming more common among celebrities--that’s when a party walks away from a home because of its big loss in value, even though they have enough money to pay the mortgage.
That’s what Erving did. He said his Utah mansion was drastically underwater and so he stopped making his mortgage payments last fall on the home.
"All price points have been hit by the foreclosure crisis,” Brennan told Reuters News. “The rich and famous have not been excluded from that. There are a handful of people in the luxury real estate category that are experiencing foreclosures as well."

$232,000 per bottle

Three 1869 bottles of Château Lafite Rothschild, which sold for $232,000 per bottle at Sotheby’s Hong Kong on October 30, setting a new worldwide auction record for wine

买酒的也都是Asian, 买房的也是。 乱观感。

Testimonial: Portilla

Connie is very knowledge about the market. She's especially familiar with the Carmel Valley and 4S Ranch markets. Although she was taking an oversea vacation at the beginning of our house hunting process, she made sure that we were taken cared of by another Realtor. What's amazing is that she is so familiar with the houses in the market, that whichever house we had questions, she could tell her her impression from memory via email. She has many clients, that is why she is familiar with the market. She is always responsive whenever e ask her questions. We selected Connie also because she was never hesitate in offering her candidate opinion of the houses that she showed, which provides us a helpful neutral perspective in the selection process. She was also very resourceful and provided good referrals for mortgage brokers, carpet cleaning, etc. She also helped us negotiated $4000 with the bank for the short-sale house we bought, which was not easy, and we appreciate her tenacity in helping us get each dollar back. The other thing that was really great about Connie is that she helped us rent out our other house without charging us anything. That house was rented out around Christmas time, which was a slow month for house renting. We love Connie and will not hesitate in recommending her to others.

Inflation in College Tuitions

Happy New Year!!

It's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years.

Happy New Year!!

房市的不可预测

2010年就要结束了，2011年就要到来了，每当这个时候，就会有很多人出来预测明年的房市。其实预测是靠感觉的，不完全靠数据，也没什么用，关键还是要看每个人的情况。我个人觉得2011 will be a flat year.

就拿Lawrence Yun来说吧（REALTOR协会的首席经济专家）年复一年失败预测：

还有人专门写了一个博客就是揭露他的严重不准确预测：
http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/

1/10/2008
Lawrence Yun said, “A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008."

7/24/2008
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said "I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn," Yun said.

11/17/2008
Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the perpetually optimistic National Association of Realtors, says he expects prices to rise 2.8% in 2009.

11/13/2009
"The fear factor will no longer be at play in 2010," said Lawrence Yun

11/6/2010
"It will take another two years to clear the foreclosures and short sales on the market", said Lawrence Yun。

唉，还是给大家送一首歌吧：

宽 心 谣

日出东海落西山，愁也一天，喜也一天。
遇事不钻牛角尖，人也舒坦，心也舒坦。
每月领取养老钱，多也喜欢，少也喜欢。
少荤多素日三餐，粗也香甜，细也香甜。
新旧衣服不挑拣，好也御寒，赖也御寒。
常与知己聊聊天，古也谈谈，今也谈谈。
内孙外孙同样看，儿也心欢，女也心欢。
全家老小互慰勉，贫也相安，富也相安。
早晚操劳勤锻炼，忙也乐观，闲也乐观。
心宽体胖养天年，不是神仙，胜似神仙。 其实，拥有更多的东西也就同时拥有了更多的烦恼。 想想我们一无所有的那个年代，不是也很快乐吗？

Testimonial: Sea Knoll

Connie has been very knowledgeble about the Carmel Valley real estate market and in many times due to her connections and large client bases, she can advise her clients more intelligently in terms of the strategy and the competitions to avoid unnecessary hassles. She is very keen and competent in negotiating prices and offerring advice on the house structure, fengshui and strength/weakness of the house. We highly recommend her services.

今年的Mortgage Rate

今年的9，10月份贷款利率是历史最低的，现在可能已经反转，历史最低率is already "in the rearview mirrors", 可能不会再来了。

Three Scenarios From the Foreclosure Freeze

Gregor Watson, a principal with McKinley Partners, a development company that buys foreclosed homes, told listeners on a Citi home-builder conference call that there were three potential outcomes from the foreclosure fiasco:

· Best case: These are technical issues that can be resolved quickly so the foreclosure process can continue and the glut of foreclosed homes is cleared from the market.

· Medium case: There is significant litigation that takes years to sort out and this slows the troubled housing market even further.

· Worst case: The market grinds to a halt and title insurers refuse to insure mortgages involving foreclosed homes. “It would be devastating for the resale market if this robo-signer issue spiraled out of control,” Watson says.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Dawn Wotapka (10/12/2010)

Control?

我帮buyer买到很好的deal. 我发现，好几次和seller's agent斗争的时候，那些大牌agent总是直接或者间接地说: Connie，你要get a good control of the client才是好agent. （潜台词：这样的要求不合理，你自己就应该和buyer解决掉）。

我承认这些big name agent的确有很好的control, 他们control的目的无非是把deal 做成，并不是client's best interests. 我不认为我去帮客户争取被他们认为是ridiculous的要求有什么问题。 我也不在意他们的看法。 In the end, close escrow之后不要让买家有遗憾才是真的。 毕竟，我们现在还是buyer's market!!

Not selling well this release

Manzanita Trail:

和上2次火爆的销售相比，这次竟然还剩下5个：

Plan 3:

Lot 34: 847

Lot 35: 895

Lot 37: 885

Plan 4:

Lot 36: 935

Lot 40: 929

Move in March/April 2011

另外一个Lot47 Plan 3C： 908 （Move in Nov./Dec. 2010)

Global Air Quality Map

World wide air quality measured by amount of micro particles in the air.

你还敢在国内长住吗。Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjin etc are all close to the max.

2010 San Diego County Middle School/High School APIs

Rank API Middle School District
1 967 Carmel Valley San Dieguito
2 951 R. Roger Rowe Rancho Santa Fe
3 930 Mesa Verde Poway
4 929 Earl Warren San Dieguito
5 924 Marshall San Diego Unified
6 915 Oak Valley Poway
7 900 Hillsdale Cajon Valley

Rank API High School District
1 920 River Valley Charter* Lakeside
2 894 Canyon Crest Academy San Dieguito
3 885 Preuss Charter San Diego Unified
4 875 Scripps Ranch San Diego Unified
5 871 Mt. Everest Academy* San Diego Unified
6 870 Torrey Pines San Dieguito
7 857 Poway Poway
8 855 Del Norte Poway
8 855 Rancho Bernardo Poway
9 851 Westview Poway

Carmel Valley Elementary School 2010 API

Del Mar 2010 2009 Change
Ashley Falls 952 955 -3
Carmel Del Mar 943 948 -5
Del Mar Heights 965 948 +17
Del Mar Hills 923 924 -1
Ocean Air 981 975 +6
Sage Canyon 973 976 -3
Sycamore Ridge 965 959 +6
Torrey Hills 955 962 -7

Solana Beach 2010 2009 Change
Carmel Creek 947 947 0
Skyline 911 910 +1
Solana Hlands 942 942 0
Solana Pacific 963 940 +23
Solana Santa Fe 934 940 -6
Solana Vista 892 905 -13

Poway Unified School District 2010 API

Poway Unified School District 2010 Academic Performance Index (API)

Schools 2010 API 2009 API

Elementary Schools
Adobe Bluffs Elementary 946 932
Canyon View Elementary 935 925
Chaparral Elementary 928 926
Creekside Elementary 947 946
Deer Canyon Elementary 954 956
Del Sur Elementary 954 902
Garden Road Elementary 892 864
Highland Ranch Elementary 906 903
Los Peñasquitos Elementary 915 917
Midland Elementary 911 903
Monterey Ridge Elementary 927 929
Morning Creek Elementary 882 867
Painted Rock Elementary 916 907
Park Village Elementary 944 949
Pomerado Elementary 857 877
Rolling Hills Elementary 924 905
Shoal Creek Elementary 908 895
Stone Ranch Elementary 954 941
Sundance Elementary 913 921
Sunset Hills Elementary 867 883
Tierra Bonita Elementary 907 883
Turtleback Elementary 914 919
Valley Elementary 825 812
Westwood Elementary 914 916
Willow Grove Elementary 939 927
Middle Schools
Bernardo Heights Middle 899 893
Black Mountain Middle 884 875
Meadowbrook Middle 859 856
Mesa Verde Middle 930 927
Oak Valley Middle 915 895
Twin Peaks Middle 888 879
High Schools
Del Norte High 855 n/a
Mt. Carmel High 818 815
Poway High 857 850
Rancho Bernardo High 855 841
Westview High 851 848

HUD offers homes at HALF prices to Firefighters and Teachers etc.

According to this article, the HUD is offering homes at HALF the price to certain government employees including firefighters, police officers, emergency medical techs, and best of all teachers, with a program called "GOOD NEIGHBOR NEXT DOOR". If you qualify, you only need to pay half the appraised price.The catch is that these homes are located in "revitalization areas", which means not-so-good neighborhoods. And you need to live there for minimum 3 years.

Check Crime Map (Rate)

http://mapping.arjis.org/CrimeMAPS/main.aspx

Motorola's New Mobility Spinoff May Pick San Diego as Its Headquarter

According to this article, Motorola's new mobility spinoff (making cell phones) headed by former Qualcomm executive, Sanjay Jha, will likely to pick San Diego as its new headquarter. If that happens, it should generate some buying demand here.

The Foreclosure Report

State	Notice of Default	Notice of Sale	Back to Bank	Sold to 3rd Party
Arizona	n/a	-12.2%	-2.0%	-5.8%
California	+16.7%	+2.7%	+20.3%	-0.4%
Nevada	-7.5%	-3.34%	-12.0%	+26.2%
Washington	n/a	-15.6%	-10.3%	-15.6%
Oregon	+10.7%	+9.3%	+27.6%	-8.0%

California
Notices of Default filings, the first step in the foreclosure process, jumped 16.6 percent in August, the fourth successive increase in as many months. Fewer homeowners found foreclosure relief as foreclosure cancellations dropped 11.2 percent while more homes were lost, up 15.6 percent to 17,841 foreclosure sales.

Top Foreclosure ZIP codes in San Diego County:

92054

92126

91910

92105

91911

92154

92114

91950

92083

92021

92115

91977

Highland Village cooling down

由于前一段接二连三的release, 最近market疲软， HV现在还有2套Plan1 available, 价格在48万左右。 Plan2还有一套53万。 而Plan3也还剩一个55.6万。 人见人爱的Plan4仍然售迄。

Now SUPER low mortgage rate that can get even lower..

The 30y fixed high balance is only 4.5% with no cost. This was unthinkable even weeks ago. Now some experts are predicting 3.x% rate for 30yr fixed this winter.

It is hard to imagine what kind impact/effect it will have in the future given such cheap loans are given to so many home owners. There was news that FED even gave non-financial companies like IBM 1% loan in hope that they can create more jobs. Is this creative or insane? I guess given the current thinking from FED anything can happen.

Vacation 结束

I am back to work today.

推荐一个小孩玩的地方（北京）

这个是新开业的。

http://www.dianping.com/shop/3705697_p2#ur

挺贵的门票。 小孩160， 大人20.

老大比较会赚钱， 做了主持人，修车手，法官， 空少， 果汁店店员， 特种部队队员，等等。
老二做了育婴护士，蛋糕店店员， 果汁店店员，还有牙医。

二个人都玩的超级high。

里面很干净， 感觉还是井井有条的管理。而且是小group的孩子一起进去。

小孩高兴就好。 我就累坏了可。

Talavera by Davidson at 4S Ranch

Plan 1 - 3451 sf

Plan 2 - 3780 sf

Plan 3: 3870 sf

Plan 4: 4053 sf

Travata by Standard Pacific at 4S Ranch

Site Plan

---

Plan 1 - Villa Francesca 4  Bedrooms,  4.5 Bathrooms From $827,900 3,552-3,812 Sq. Ft.

---

Plan 2 - Villa Molino 5  Bedrooms,  4.5 Bathrooms From $845,900 3,676-3,877 Sq. Ft.

---

Plan 3 - Alessar 5  Bedrooms,  4.5 Bathrooms From $848,900 3,726-3,976 Sq. Ft.

---

 

4S Ranch - Reunion

Reunion: 03-06, Davidson, 一共66家。Paseo de linda, Sienna Hills Dr, Camino San Thomas.

Site Plan

---

Residence One3,594 sf 4 Bedrooms plus bonus room,   office, and optional retreat 3.5 Baths 2-car plus compact tandem garage	Lower Level
	Upper Level

---

Residence Two 3,804 sf 5 Bedrooms plus bonus room,   or bedroom 6, or retreat 3.5 Baths Interior courtyard Optional outdoor kitchen Split 3-car garage	Lower Level
	Upper Level

---

Residence Three 4,151-4,419 sf 5 Bedrooms and loft or   bedroom 6 and optional master retreat 4.5 Baths Dining hall w/ wine room Optional retreat Interior courtyard 2-car plus tandem garage	Lower Level
	Upper Level

---

回国感想1

北京的低碳生活和团购生活

北京的私家车数量增长速度惊人。 汽车尾气污染严重。 一个月内就几天是雨后可以看到蓝天。

但是同时，北京近来提倡低碳生活。 对于普通的北京人啥叫低碳呢？

各大超市都不给塑料袋。 结账的时候大家都拿出自带的布口袋装好东西走人。 实在没有带呢，塑料袋是要交钱买的。

虽然私家车很多，但是骑自行车的人更多。 还有很多人骑电动车。 电动车可以充电， 速度适中，还可以带人。 真应该在美国也普及一下。

住在清华的好处是有几大食堂可以换着样的吃。 不用自己做饭， 也算是低碳了吧。

可是倡导低碳，私家车这么多，虽然每天都限号出行，不过我觉得车还是比从前多了好多。 小区里很多人家都是一家2辆车。

团购现在很热。 你能想到的，什么都可以团。 都知道人多好办事儿，已经有无数的团购网站，QQ群，围脖来牵线搭桥，招呼大家一起团购了。 团比自己去买价格低很多，而且还能感觉到众乐乐，而乐而不为呢。

Testimonial

Dear Connie,

Thanks for getting us a fine house in Carmel Valley. It was such a pleasant experience; I started with knowing nothing about the market, but ended up quickly in settling into a cozy new house we love.

Please keep us informed of the real estate in this area. It may not take long for us to start over the process with you again!

Best,
Yong Cang & Feng Gao

Home sale slows in May

On new home sale reported by commerce dpt: Sales of new single-family homes plunged 33% in May to a record-low level. Sales dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000, the lowest since records began in 1963. April's sales pace was revised down to 446,000 compared with the 504,000 originally reported. March's sales were also revised lower.

For existing home: The National Association of Realtors said sales fell 2.2 percent month over month to an annual rate of 5.66 million units from an upwardly revised 5.79 million-unit pace in April.

Foreclosed properties and short sales accounted for 31 percent of transactions last month, the Realtors group said, with first-time buyers representing 46 percent.
Despite the weak sales, the supply of previously owned homes on the market fell 3.4 percent to 3.89 million units. The national median home price rose 2.7 percent from May last year to $179,600, the highest level since July.

Mortgage rate at record low

You can get jumbo conforming 30yr fixed at 4.875% for no fee, no cost; or 4.75% for a bit fee. 5/1 ARM at 3.75%.

Strategic Defaulters: New Trend in Mortgage Defaults

More and more homeowners who can pay their loans but opt not to. They live in their home FOR FREE without paying mortgage,while they are in the process of foreclosure or short sale. We call them: strategic defaulters --they are "more than we have ever experienced before."

The foreclosure process is taking 13 to 14 months, and so there's over A YEAR of FREE RENT.

31 percent of foreclosures in March were deemed to be "strategic default"!!

我今年年初有一个short sale，于芸芸offer中好不容易拿到。 等了n久, seller从third party那里听来可以free rent, 竟然就不卖了！free 住几个月，对financial 情况不太好的short sale卖家还是很难抗拒的～所以，short sale还是能不沾就不沾吧。 变数实在太多了！