Saturday, December 22, 2007
透视Closting costs
Closing costs分为4大部分:
一是和贷款相关的收费:包含有origination fee, loan points, credit report fee, appraisal, application fee, mortgage broker fee, processing fee, underwriting fee, wire transfer fee, assumption fee等等。 在这里需要注意的是虽然有些lender的利率很低,但是把买point的钱打在closing cost里, 或者巧立名目收一些杂费,这样实际的费用反而高出利率高一些的lender。所以找lender的时候不能光盯着哪家的rate最低。个人认为以现在的市场来看,还是以low cost的为上策, 因为利率下滑的可能性还是很大的。
第二是围绕title的收费: 一般来讲这一部分都是估算的。包含有settlement or closing fee, title search, title examination, title insurance, document preparation fee, notary fee, attorney fee等等。因为这部分的费用是由Title公司来收费,他们收费项目和标准都有所不同, 所以费用会有所差别。 如果你想要一个比较准确的数字的话,可以给Title公司打电话让他们估算closing fee 和title insurance。 (Title insurance是为了保护买方对于property title的拥有权,主要是针对关于title可能存在的争议。)
第三是与Record & Transfer 相关的费用,用来负责county的recording fee, local tax/ stamps 和state tax stamps。和第二项一样,这一项也是估算的,到时候实际发生是多少就收多少。有时候贷款公司会把这些费用和第二项title charges合并在一起通称为第三方收费(third party charges)。因为这些费用并不是由贷款公司来决定,所以千万不要被有些贷款公司低估的"third party charges"所误导。
第四项也是最后一部分是预交费用(Prepaid):包括足月开始前的贷款利息, 一年的房屋保险金以及property tax, flood ins, school tax等等贷款公司要收取的押金。利息是从close那天开始计算的。比如12月21号close, 就收21号到1月1号的利息。 另外,贷款公司会一次性预收一年的保险费或者放在月付里面,具体操作你可以和贷款公司讨论选择适合自己的付款方式。
关于房子的closing costs大概就是这样子:四大板块的费用--由于各个贷款公司收费运作不同,会有一些不同的收费项目,但是基本上也不出左右了。
Friday, December 21, 2007
Cramer: When Housing Will Bottom
这里发一个昨天Cramer的访谈, 关于房市的。 他认为2008年的最后3个月会是买房的好时机。Let's see.
Video Link
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Immigrants Nudge Builders to Consider New Traditions
For instance, Centex Homes has largely abandoned models featuring a stairway leading up from the foyer that lines up exactly with the front door. That's because in many Asian communities, such an alignment is bad feng shui. It portends that luck will run out of the house.
Home builders in the South and West have begun building homes with more and smaller bedrooms than the traditional four-bedroom house to appeal to some Hispanic immigrant families in which many generations live under one roof.
In areas where there are many Hindu families, there is a demand for homes that reflect vastu shastra, an Indian design philosophy which suggests building homes facing east to soak up sunlight, while placing the kitchen in the center as the symbolic heart of the home.
Some Indian buyers strongly reject foreclosed homes because vastu shastra teaches that it's best to live in a home with positive energy, where the previous residents have been happy and prosperous.
Foreign-born residents make up a growing share of U.S. home owners at all income levels, but particularly first-time buyers, according to Zhu Xiao Di, a senior research analyst at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. Foreign-born residents make up about 16 percent of recent homebuyers in Maryland, 15 percent in Virginia, and 12 percent in the District, according to the center's analysis of U.S. Census data.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Slow market
Thursday, November 29, 2007
10 best performing housing markets
- Salt Lake City; Median Home Sale Price: $246,700; Percent Change: 14.1 percent
- Charlotte, N.C., $220,000, 11 percent
- San Jose, Calif., $852,500, 9.4 percent
- San Francisco, $825,400, 8.6 percent
- Raleigh, N.C., $229,500, 7.5 percent
- Austin, $188,200, 7.2 percent
- Pittsburgh, $127,700, 6.1 percent
- Seattle, $394,700, 6 percent
- San Antonio, $154,700, 5.7 percent
- Portland, Ore., $299,700, 5.2 percent
Friday, November 16, 2007
How to Negotiate Like a Ninja
Know your opponent. If you’re a listing agent, ask questions of potential buyers, such as how long they’ve been looking or how many offers they’ve made. If you’re working for a buyer, find out how long a property has been on the market and if there’ve been any price reductions.
Identify vital striking points. Know what your clients’ wants and needs are, and understand the difference between needs, which are must-have items, and wants, which are optional and so negotiable.
Adopt an effective posture. Enter the negotiating process with a friendly demeanor to set the tone for effective discussions.
Block an opponent’s move with your own. If a seller asks a concession from your buyer, for example, don’t agree without first asking for a seller concession in return.
Stay calm and mentally focused. Once negotiations have begun, “distance yourself from the battle, don’t get emotionally involved,”
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Maybeck plan4
这套虽然现在价格开的这么便宜,但是我也不会推荐给我的clients。 房子什么都好, upgrades一大堆,就是院子太小, 而且,最主要的是,朝北。 对于圣地亚哥来说,院子和房子的朝向是太太太关键了。 有人说我不在乎,圣地亚哥这个地方总是阳光普照,朝哪里还不是一样。 错! 房子的朝向至关重要。买房时一定要看仔细。
'Roulette Economy' of 2007 Is Almost Over
REALTOR首席的市场分析员(看last name好像中国人呐, YUN(袁?)今天指出:2008 will be a healthy market for serious buyers。 我希望是。
Home prices nationally have declined by some 1.5 percent in 2007, which is "no big deal" after years of rapid appreciation, said Yun. In addition, he noted, there are still many markets such as Utah, North Carolina, and Tennessee that are appreciating and may even be undervalued.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Delinquency, Default and Foreclosure
我们讲,Mortgage 就是你一次性借银行的钱买房,然后每个月拿钱去还。下一个问题是如果你不还,或是还不起了,会发生什么事。这里面涉及到很多法律问题,而且各个州的规定不一样,我只能就一般的情况作一个描述。
如果mortgage borrower miss 了payment due date, 就被称为Delinquency。当miss 第一个月,就进入30 day delinquency的状态, 再miss 第二个就是60 day delinquency, 当miss 完第三个due date, 就统称90+ day delinquency。当borrower 90+ delinquency 之后,银行就会给borrower 一个 Notice of Default (NoD). 之后大概会有90天的Silent Period, 这段时间borrower 如果能补齐所有的back payment 和一些fee 的话,一切就可以回到normal。但如果borrower 不能的话,过了Silent Period, 银行就会再发一份Notice of Sale (NoS), 定一个买房的时间。最后就进入foreclosure procedure, 银行一般通过auction 把房子卖了。在房子被卖了之后,borrower 最多再住30天,就必须离开。
最后祝愿大家都能以合理的价格和利率买到自己的DREAM HOUSE.
Inventories Improve in October vs. September
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Top 5 Markets Where Home Prices are Rising
5 Cities Where Prices Rose
Seattle: 5.7
Charlotte: 5.6
Portland: 2.8
Atlanta: 0.8
Dallas: 0.5
15 Cities Where Prices Fell
Tampa: -10.1
Detroit: -9.3
San Diego: -8.3
Phoenix: -8.0
Miami: -7.8
Las Vegas: -7.6
Washington, D.C.: -7.2
Los Angeles: -5.7
San Francisco: -4.2
Cleveland: -4.1
Minneapolis: -4.0
New York: -3.8
Boston: -3.6
Chicago: -1.3
Denver: -0.4
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Monday, October 29, 2007
Maybeck的block party
刚巧昨天晚上我们整个block开party 庆贺大家的房子都没事。 我们2条街各有10栋房子。 大家都谈起当初是怎么选中Maybeck的。 和builder一起work是都遇到过什么问题。 和他们聊天非常有收获。 有人说买新房时最好能和已经买了住进去的人聊聊, 听听他们的说法。 我也是这么建议给我要买新房的客户和朋友。 我有一个客户在我带她看过Model又带她去一个已经入住的房子里看之后说, 看样板房有很多的误导,哪些是default哪些是upgrade的option, 但是去看了入住后的房子又和房主聊一聊对她make decision非常有帮助。
Saturday, October 27, 2007
做一个中立的agent?
Friday, October 26, 2007
大火之后的市场 Market after the fire
Here are the comments from people who think the market gonna boost:
1. The fires will boost the local economy by adding construction jobs. Over a 1000 homes need to be rebuilt.
2. The displaced people will need somewhere to live for the next 18 months. The rent market is already tight.A raise in rents could make buying seem a better idea.
3. This coupled with the 80,000 loans currently being restructured and a possible continued cut in the mortgage rates could soften the rate of decline in the market. While prices have been declining, most of us expected it to be at a much more rapid pace. Many of my friends are saying that it is looking like things are not dropping fast enough and feel all the bail out efforts might make this a time to buy. Basically, they feel that the system of survival of the fittest within capitalism has been breeched by all of the bail out efforts. Basically in this country, there are no consequences for foolish decisions.
I agree with 1&2. Those are pretty much the facts. About 3...it's really hard to say. Many homeowners are in financial trouble now. That will certainly impact today's market.
节约用水!Water Conservation
昨天我发到我们社区的bbs上面的帖子。有很多人跟贴,补发在这里也。 希望有更多的人能自觉的减少用水。
By Connie Zhao:
San Diego imports more than 85% of its water. Every drop is precious even without this fire. I would suggest that everyone in our community try our best to conserve water. I know there are already many people doing so and let's share our tips of water conservation here. What we do in our family is we use a small bucket to collect water when we wash fruits and vegetables.Then dump the water into a big bucket. When its full we use it watering plants in the yard. It may not seem very convenient but you will be amazed that how much water you can save this way. I also found some tips here: http://www.sandiego.gov/water/conservation/tips.shtml
By Gena Barney:
regarding water conservation... i was VERY surprised to see a home owner on 4S Ranch Parkway (just a couple of houses north of Lone Quail on the east side of the street) with his screens off of his windows and washing them down today in the front yard...There has ONLY been talks about water conservation for days and to use water for something so trivial, that could definitely wait. I felt it was very selfish and short-sighted.
By Jessica Berlin:
Hi everyone,The San Diego County Water Authority has challenged everyone in the county to save 20 gallons of water every day. Here's the website: http://www.20gallonchallenge.com/.Please do everything you can to save water.
By Sharon Siu:
Good topic! Here's what we do: 1. Turn off water when brushing your teeth2. Water less minutes if possible.. decrease each station time by 1 minute, and then check in a week to see if grass is as green. If it is, decrease it by another minute until you see a color difference! =) We safed ALOT of water doing so!! We saw a drop in our water bill!
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Shelter in place
contributed significantly to our immediate neighborhood's survival in
the wildfire:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071025/news_1n25stay.html
4S Ranch: County and City Boundaries
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
San Diego Fire
I just back home this afternoon. The houses in 4S ranch area are all fine. The sky is clear and air quality is good. It certainly nice to be back at home. We stayed at a friend's home in Ivrine and I really missed San Diego.
经过这次大火,可能很多人包括我自己就更明白什么是生活中最重要的了吧?就买房子而言,一定要把地势放在一个更重要的位置了。具体的分析明天再来写,现在真的很困很困了。晚安~
Carmel Valley Mello Roos
CARMEL VALLEY IS A MELLO-ROOS DISTRICT IN CERTAIN DEVELOPMENTS*
THE AMOUNTS BELOW ARE SHOWN ON THE ANNUAL PROPERTY TAX BILL AS CFD #1
SPECIAL TAX FEES MAY INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING:
HOUSING SIZE - SQ. FT. | ANNUAL MAXIMUM SPECIAL TAX |
2,500 and ABOVE | $1,244 |
2,250 to 2,499 | $1,131 |
2,000 to 2,249 | $1,018 |
1,750 to 1,999 | $905 |
1,500 to 1,749 | $791 |
1,250 to 1,499 | $678 |
1,000 to 1,249 | $565 |
0 to 999 | $452 |
Monday, October 22, 2007
Arabella
Arabella 的房子基本上都是有Energy Star® 可以省电省气。很多的Living Smart features are automatically included an energy-saving 50-gallon water heater, a GE Energy® photovoltaic roof panel system on all ‘California Ranch’ exteriors, fluorescent lights, engineered high-performance lumber and spectrally selective glass for increased energy efficiency and reduced fabric fade.
我觉得Pardee homes挺有眼光的。 很多年以前就看中了Carmel Valley这片地皮, hold了这么这么地久。 然后盖房很Green. 很适合能afford这个价位的人群的需要(比较environmental sensitivity and energy-conscious 的人群)。
Arabella从一开始就是从Mid70万起价的。 3个plan range from 2,007 to 2,453 square feet。
Pardee建整个的Pacific Highlands Ranch master-planned community, 现在已经建好了活动中心(recreation center), 我朋友的妈妈很喜欢, 每天去里面运动游泳:)。 另外还有今后要建的multi-use trail system for hiking and biking, an intranet and a Village Center with a complement of everyday shopping conveniences.
总之这个new construction是我比较推荐的。 不过价格是从05年到现在一路在上涨。 现在PLAN3的价格是86万as of 10-22-07。 有兴趣想了解更多情况请和我联系。 买new construction我算是很有经验的了。一定可以给你提供很多宝贵的意见。
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Making the Grade
Carlsbad Unified
Number of schools: 9 elementary, 3 middle, 1 high school, 1 alternative, 1 small
Top schools: Kelly Elementary, enrollment 662, API base score 932;
Pacific Rim, enrollment 839, API base score 908
The district’s student enrollment for September is projected to be 10,601——a 0.5 percent increase over last year. Poinsettia Elementary, the new $16.2 million campus, will open this fall and relieve overcrowding at Kelly and Aviara Oaks elementary schools. In east Carlsbad, Poinsettia Elementary will serve students in kindergarten through fifth grade from Bressi Ranch, La Costa Greens, Cantamar and surrounding communities.
Del Mar Union
Number of schools: 8 elementary
Top schools: Ashley Falls Elementary (grades K-6), enrollment 551, API base score 956;
Sage Canyon Elementary School (grades K-6), enrollment 769, API base score 965;
Carmel Del Mar Elementary (grades K-6), enrollment 491, API base score 913;
Del Mar Heights Elementary (grades K-6), enrollment 462, API base score 946;
Sycamore Ridge (grades K-6), enrollment 380, API base score 921;
Torrey Hills (grades K-6), enrollment 784, API base score 950
The Del Mar Union School District, serving Del Mar, Del Mar Heights and part of Carmel Valley, has grown from two to seven schools since 1992. About 3,800 students are served. The new Ocean Air School is scheduled for completion in the fall. Del Mar Union has the highest district API base score in the county (939).
Encinitas Union
Number of schools: 9 elementary
Top schools: El Camino Creek Elementary (grades K-6), enrollment 911, API base score 939;
Flora Vista Elementary (grades K-6), enrollment 519, API base score 937;
La Costa Heights Elementary (grades K-6), enrollment 617, API base score 905;
Mission Estancia Elementary (grades K-6), enrollment 570, API base score 924;
Olivenhain Pioneer Elementary (grades K-6), enrollment 722, API base score 937
One of five elementary school districts that feeds into the San Dieguito Union High School District, Encinitas Union serves 5,647 students in Carlsbad, La Costa and Encinitas neighborhoods. All of its schools have been recognized as California Distinguished Schools, and La Costa Heights School and Olivenhain Pioneer have been recognized as National Blue Ribbon Schools. Mission Estancia was recently selected to apply for one of the 2007 National Blue Ribbon Schools recognitions.
Poway Unified
Number of schools: 23 elementary, 6 middle, 4 high schools, 1 continuation
Top schools: Adobe Bluffs Elementary, enrollment 711, API base score 911;
Chaparral Elementary, enrollment 802, API base score 923;
Creekside Elementary, enrollment 785, API base score 959;
Deer Canyon Elementary, enrollment 580, API base score 945;
Los Peñasquitos Elementary, enrollment 574, API base score 905;
Painted Rock Elementary, enrollment 607, API base score 920;
Park Village Elementary, enrollment 805; API base score 938;
Rolling Hills Elementary, enrollment 390; API base score 913;
Shoal Creek Elementary, enrollment 653, API base score 903;
Turtleback Elementary, enrollment 549, API base score 904
The third-largest school district in the county, Poway Unified serves more than 32,000 students. All-time highs in API and AYP were achieved in 2006. Monterey Ridge Elementary, the newest school in the district, opened in August 2006. Two more elementary schools and a high school are planned to open by 2010.
Rancho Santa Fe
Number of schools: 1 elementary, 1 middle
Top school: R. Roger Rowe School (grades K-6), enrollment 621, API base score 944
Rancho Santa Fe School District began with a single schoolhouse in 1905 and today educates 831 students, kindergarten through eighth grade. Rowe Middle School is a top performer and included in our middle school section. The district recently posted a parent survey that addressed overcrowding and the need for another school.
San Diego Unified Eugene Brucker Education Center,
Number of schools: 114 elementary, 23 middle, 27 high schools, 34 charter, 18 alternative
Top schools: Benchley Weinberger Elementary, enrollment 550, API base score 906;
Bird Rock Elementary, enrollment 473, API base score 941;
Curie Elementary, enrollment 591, API base score 921;
Dingeman Elementary, enrollment 842, API base score 932;
Hearst Elementary, enrollment 410, API base 920;
Jerabek Elementary (year-round), enrollment 832, API base score 921;
La Jolla Elementary, enrollment 522, API base score 912;
Ellen Browning Scripps Elementary, enrollment 539, API base score 924;
Sunset View Elementary (grades K-4), enrollment 398, API base score 901;
Torrey Pines Elementary, enrollment 395, API base score 919
The second-largest district in California and eighth-largest urban district in the United States, San Diego Unified School District serves 132,482 students. The diverse student population represents more than 15 ethnic groups and more than 60 languages and dialects. Laura Rodriguez Elementary School, Florence Griffith Joyner Elementary and Thurgood Marshall Middle School will open this year. Lincoln High and Burbank Elementary were recently rebuilt and will reopen this month.
Solana Beach
Number of schools: 6 elementary
Top schools: Carmel Creek (grades K-4), enrollment 673, API base score 954;
Solana Highlands (grades K-4), enrollment 730, API base score 948;
Solana Pacific (grades 5 and 6), enrollment 472, API base score 952;
Solana Santa Fe Elementary (grades K-6), enrollment 457, API base score 939
The district currently serves about 2,700 students at six elementary schools. Pacific Highlands Ranch, a seventh school, is in the planning stages. All of the eligible schools are California Distinguished Schools and exceed the 800 API achievement target.
Middle Schools
Poway Unified
Mesa Verde Middle School (grades 6-8), enrollment 1,390, API base score 901
Rancho Santa Fe
R. Roger Rowe Middle School (grades 7 and 8), enrollment 171, API base score 921
710 Encinitas Boulevard, Encinitas
760-753-6491
Superintendent: Peggy Lynch, Ed.D.
Number of schools: 4 middle, 3 high schools, 1 alternative, 1 continuation, 1 small
Top schools:
Earl Warren Middle (grades 7 and 8), enrollment 570, API base score 905
The San Dieguito Union High School District enrolls about 12,000 students in Encinitas, Solana Beach and Del Mar and also serves unincorporated neighboring areas such as La Costa, Olivenhain, Rancho Santa Fe, Fairbanks Ranch and Carmel Valley. Students from those districts matriculate through the district’s middle and high schools, with the exception of those from the Rancho Santa Fe School District, who begin as freshmen.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Short sale from seller's side
Let's take this example: you bought the house last year for $500,000, and foolishly took advantage of the mortgage broker's sales pitch and obtained a 100 percent loan. Now, the house will probably only sell for $475,000, and you lost your job and cannot afford to continue with the monthly mortgage payments.
Why would a lender permit this? First, you should understand that not all lenders will allow a short sale. Their decision depends on a number of factors: where is your house? how much loss will the lender suffer? What is the possibility that a speculator/investor will buy at a foreclosure sale?
Lenders have their own requirements, so I can only provide general information; The sellers will have to consult the specific lender to determine what they need in order to move forward with the short sale process.
The first step is to contact your financial and legal advisors. Do not contact the lender until you fully understand the potential risks involved. Under Federal law, when a debt is forgiven, it can be treated as ordinary income on which tax must be paid. Thus, if your lender allows you to sell the property to $475, less a 2 percent commission, you will pay off your $500,000 mortgage and have a deficit of almost $35,000. According to many tax professionals, you will have to pay income tax on this amount even though you did not actually receive the money.
Furthermore, you want to make absolutely sure that even should the lender approve the short sale, you will not be obligated to make up this difference, which is called a deficiency. Unfortunately, most lenders will not put their agreement in writing, so your legal advisors will have to satisfy themselves -- and you -- on this matter.
In fact, many lenders have been known to use this "forgiveness of debt" issue as a way of dissuading their borrowers from pursuing the short sale approach.
After you are satisfied that you understand the concept and are prepared to move forward, you should contact your lender. Go up the corporate ladder as high as you can and talk with the manager of the short sale department. Typically, the lender has a "loss remediation" department that handles these matters.
If you have authorized your attorney or your real estate agent to act on your behalf, the lender will need a letter of authorization from you. The Privacy Laws enacted after 9-11 prohibit lenders from discussing personal and financial information with a stranger without such written authorization. This letter will include your name, property address and loan number.
You (or your agent) should then prepare a comprehensive letter explaining why you are requesting the short sale. Emphasize -- but not as a "sob story" -- your hardship. It would also help if you include a market analysis which will show what houses in your area are currently selling for. And finally, spell out your request in detail: what price are you asking the lender to approve, what percent commission will the real estate agent be allowed to accept, and what closing costs will be associated with the settlement. Keep in mind that in many jurisdictions, there is a recordation and transfer tax which is typically split between buyer and seller.
Your proposal should be as specific as possible. You don't want to learn at settlement that you still have to come up with a lot of cash, because your lender did not authorize certain out-of-pocket expenses.
You should also request from your lender the amount of your outstanding balance. The lender has a legal obligation to provide this to you on request, and the burden is on the lender to provide an accurate accounting. Review this carefully to make sure that there are no charges which have been erroneously added. If you have missed some payments, you will be assessed late fees. When you present your proposal to the lender, try to get these charges deleted from the amount of the outstanding mortgage balance.
Your proposal should also include your financial situation. Keep in mind that many loans in the past few years were what are called "no-doc" -- in other words, the lender made the decision to fund your loan based on the value of the property and not on your financial status. In your case, since you lost your job, include proof with your letter.
The more documentation you can provide the lender, the faster the decision will be. However, currently lenders are swamped with these requests, since you are not the only one facing a possible foreclosure.
Thus, the earlier you can start the process, the better chance you have of getting it approved.
But the lender's approval to proceed with a short sale does not end the process. When you or your real estate agent find a prospective purchaser, the contract must state that it is contingent on lender's approval. You have to send the contract to the lender, and it would help if you would include an accounting of all expenses which you will have to pay at settlement, and a final number that the lender will receive when settlement takes place.
In fact, if you can have a HUD-1 settlement statement prepared, this would be helpful and would expedite the process. Your lender will then review the documentation, and may reject certain expenses. For example, if the contract provides that you will give your buyer XX dollars for "closing costs" -- or that you will pay some items which are traditionally the buyer's obligation (such as title search and survey) -- the lender may not allow such payments.
You want to go into the settlement knowing exactly all of the terms and conditions on which your lender will accept the short sale, including whether or not you will have to come up with money at the settlement table.
You are in financial trouble. If you have already missed some payments, your lender may already have reported this information to the credit reporting companies. You should try to convince the lender not to report any more delinquencies, but unfortunately, that's in your lender's sole discretion.
The short sale process works, but is complicated, time-consuming and uncertain. If you can start now -- before you are actually in default -- you will be ahead of the game.
Friday, August 31, 2007
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
和房子无关
辛酸。 当我们都在美国为生活奔波的时候, 可能你根本不可能为你的国家做任何事情。 但至少你可以做的, 是关注。
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Second Quarter Home Prices Fall, More Expected in Coming Months
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices fell at a faster rate in the second quarter, down 3.2% compared with the same period in 2006, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday.
It marked the largest year-over-year decline ever recorded in the 20-year history of the Case-Shiller home price index. A year ago, home prices were rising at a 7.5% pace nationally.
In an interview with MarketWatch, Shiller noted that the figures were for activity ending in June -- well before the more recent blowup in the mortgage markets.
"We are fast approaching the rate of price decline seen at the end of the 1990-91 recession, and the odds strongly favor blowing past this mark in coming months," wrote Joshua Shapiro, chief economist for MFR Inc. "With supply overhang growing and mortgage financing tougher to obtain, home prices are going to soften considerably further in the quarters ahead."
Cities covered by the Case-Shiller index, ranked from worst to best:
Detroit, down 11%: Tampa, Fla., down 7.7%; San Diego, down 7.3%; Washington, down 7%; Phoenix, down 6.6%; Las Vegas, down 5.1%; Miami, down 4.8%; Los Angeles, down 4.1%; San Francisco, down 4%; Minneapolis, down 3.8%; Boston, down 3.7%; Cleveland, down 3.6%; New York, down 3.4%; Denver, down 1%; Chicago, down 0.7%; Atlanta, up 1.6%; Dallas, up 1.6%; Portland, Ore., up 4.5%; Charlotte, N.C., up 6.8%; and Seattle, up 7.9%.
美国次贷危机,夏天小菜一碟 (zhuan)
Here is a good article which is really intersting. My thoughts ~ all these conclusions got one assumption: job market remains still.
此次美国的次贷危机,除了大陆这个金融怪胎,全世界的股市都在跟进,牵连了世界主要的资本国家,更有专家大声警告小心 70-80-90 年代的全球金融大危机要降临了!可是我为什么说它们是夏天的清凉小菜一碟呢? 危机,就必有大损失,没有大失,何来危机!
1. 次贷在美国的房贷市场中,从 1995 年 650 亿的 9% 佔有率,到去年的 6000 亿的 20% 佔有率,换句话说,三万亿的房贷中,只有五分之一是次贷贡献的。美国 GDP 去年在 13 万亿左右。
2. 这 6000 亿的次贷,以平均 20 万一套房价,应该大概有 300 万户,但实际统计在 200 万户,也就是只牵扯到 4000 亿资金。而且美国的实际房产,目前状况只是不涨,小跌一点点而已,毕竟房产尚在,不象股票大危机出现的现象。
3. 4000 亿的概念( 6000 亿也罢),对美国几十万亿的金融市场来说,可不是小菜一碟吗!历来的全球金融风暴,不都是以几万亿,十几万亿的损失来收场的吗!
4. 如果这 4000 亿的次贷全部成了呆帐,也不会象股灾一样化为虚有,而是都变成了实实在在的房产!美国的房产周期,应在 10 年以上。房产涨幅超过通货膨胀率,还可以出租。 4000 亿的次贷,绝对一分钱也賠不了!有趣的是,这 4000 亿的次贷,可能有一半以上被外国资本所购! 这就是我为什么说,次贷危机对美国是小菜一碟呢。在金融游戏里,美国也是无人能比的老大哥。
5. 活钱变成了不动产的房产,即使不赔钱,也等于掐住了金融界的七寸!没有活钱去转,金融界不死才怪呢。所以美国联储也祭出了双刃上方宝箭:降息和注资,不象以往都是单枪匹马去救驾。美国不到 1000 亿的注资(到 8/21 为 975 亿),也告诉了百姓,其他 3000 亿的次贷,都已转移到外资手中,全靠几年来,华尔街的 信贷评级机构(罪魁祸首),给这些次贷公司冠扣上了 a 级, aa 级的乌纱帽!这不,世界上的主要金融大国,不都在积极赶印钞票吗! 6. 降息是让优质的房贷更好更快地进行,是恢复美国房市的强心剂。联储手中的余地还大着呢,这不也在向几个月前的中国学习,将贷款和存贷利率反向拉开吗。房贷低,有利房产复苏;存率其它商业贷率高,有利抑止通货膨胀。美国又是首屈一指的移民大国,一两百万件的次贷房产,开开后门,光大陆的款爷还不够分的呢,又能降低贸易赤字,还是一把双刃箭。 7. 这 200 万“次贷”的百姓,有多少是属于投资性质( ARM )和挺不过难关的?本来他们从投资一开始,就过着山顶洞人的生活,停止付款后,无债一身轻,生活和消费都会成倍好起来,只能增加消费量。破产对他们无济于事,投资房子被收走,也不等于失业,白交了几年学费。至于大众的消费信心和指数,政府能象我这样,公开损失真相,罚办几个信贷评级机构的头头和改组一下,再给那些资金被冻结 的外资财团(外国政府已经向他们注资了)一点优惠政策,就全搞定了。 8. 道琼指数,以往大部分年景,是夏季比圣诞节要低 10% 左右,是那些佔主流的保守资金,赚钱的法宝。可是今年夏初就是降不下来,年底圣诞节还能冲到哪里去?次贷毛病去年就显出来了,三月份,涉案公司就损失惨重,对市场没有太大的影响。 4000 亿变成不动产,不算什么危机! 于是乎,华尔街一阵紧锣密鼓,拿次贷说事,道琼就跌了 10% ,所以我说是“夏天的”清凉小菜一碟!不过这盘小菜也太贵了些。华尔街的次贷游戏,快该收场了,秋天不是又要来了吗。秋至满山多秀色,夏来无处不炎酷!
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Farmers' Markets?
Coronado - 2:30 to 6:00 p.m.
Old Ferry Landing at First St and B Ave
Escondido - 2:30 to 6:00 p.m. (4:00 to 7:00 p.m. in Summer)
Grand Ave between Juniper and Kalmia St
Website: http://www.downtownescondido.com/events/farmers_market
UCSD/La Jolla - 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. (September thru June)
UCSD Price Center near the bookstore at Lyman Lane and Library Walk
WEDNESDAY
Carlsbad - 1:00 to 5:00 p.m.
Roosevelt St between Grand Ave and Carlsbad Village Dr
Website: www.shopcarlsbadvillage.org/events/farmersmarket.html
Ocean Beach - 4:00 to 7:00 p.m. (4:00 to 8:00 p.m. in Summer)
4900 block of Newport Ave between Cable St and Bacon St
Temecula - 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.
Promenade Mall accross from Edwards Theatres
Website: http://www.temeculainformation.com/farmersmarket/Farmers_Market.htm
THURSDAY
Chula Vista - 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. (3:00 to 7:00 p.m. in Summer)
Downtown Chula Vista at Center St and Third Ave
Horton Square/San Diego - 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. (March thru October)
Downtown San Diego at 225 Broadway and Broadway Circle
North Park - 3:00 p.m. to Sunset
CVS Pharmacy parking lot at University and 32nd St
Oceanside - 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.
Coast Hwy and Pier View Way
Oceanside - 5:00 to 9:00 p.m.
Tremont and Pier View Way
Tierrasanta - 3:00 to 7:00 p.m.
De Portola Middle School at 11010 Clairemont Mesa Blvd and Santo Rd
FRIDAY
Borrego Springs - 7:00 a.m. to Noon (November thru June)
Christmas Circle Community Park at Christmas Circle and Palm Canyon Dr
La Mesa - 3:00 to 6:00 p.m.
8300 block of Allison Ave east of Spring St
Rancho Bernardo - 9:00 a.m. to Noon
Bernardo Winery parking lot at 13330 Paseo del Verano Norte
SATURDAY
Carlsbad - 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.
Roosevelt St between Grand Ave and Carlsbad Village Dr
Website: www.shopcarlsbadvillage.org/events/farmersmarket.html
Del Mar - 1:00 to 4:00 p.m
City hall parking lot at Camino Del Mar between 10th St and 11th St
Pacific Beach - 8:00 a.m. to Noon
Promenade Mall on Mission Blvd between Reed and Pacific Beach Blvd
Poway - 8:00 to 11:30 a.m.
Old Poway Park at Midland Rd and Temple
Scripps Ranch - 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.
Ellen Browning Scripps Elementary School at Scripps Poway Parkway and Spring Canyon Rd
Website: http://www.scrippsranchfarmersmarket.com/
Temecula - 8:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.
Old Town Temecula at 6th and Front Street
Website:http://www.temeculainformation.com/farmersmarket/Farmers_Market.htm
Vista - 7:45 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.
City hall parking lot at Eucalyptus Ave and Escondido Ave
SUNDAY
Hillcrest - 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.
DMV parking lot at 3960 Normal St and Lincoln St
La Jolla - 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.
La Jolla Elementary School at Girard Ave and Genter
Website: http://www.lajollamarket.com/
Leucadia/Encinitas - 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m.
Paul Ecke Elementary at Union St and Vulcan St
Third Avenue/San Diego - 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.
Downtown San Diego at Third Ave and J St
Friday, August 24, 2007
贷款市场危机
一家家的贷款公司都要么关门大吉, 要么就提高要求, 要么就裁雇员。。。每天一读财经新闻就心慌慌啊。 到上周五为止已经有1万3千人被裁员了。 还有传闻说Warren Buffett要买Countrywide。
看了很多分析家的分析, 我觉得圣地亚哥这里还是有希望的。 只要这里的工作机会还是会继续增长。
上周我的小偶像之一 Cramer让大家买Wells Fargo, 听起来不无道理。 他相信这个危机总会过去, 到今年年底左右。
买房的同学们, 还是先hold on.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Short Sale & Foreclosure
具体做饭是借贷人卖出房子, 把贷款给还上。
借贷人先要和银行达成协议, 银行可以接受比欠款要低一些的short sale金额。
目前报纸上网络上到处出现的2个term. 很多人还是搞不清楚。 有很多人问过我到底什么是Short Sale & Foreclosure。 我在这里解释一下。
Short sale比foreclosure好的地方就是影响到credit score的多少。 short sale要减去80-100分。 Foreclosure要减去很多, 一般250-300左右。 所以如果银行同意的前提下, seller都要先short sale.
Foreclosure对银行来说就是更差的选择了。 一方面是expensive, 一方面是own houses也不是银行的business, 银行是最不愿意手里Hold一大堆房子了。
对房主来讲, short sale要提供一系列的证明来证实你的的确确是没钱。 (prove financial distress)而且大多数的银行都会要求房主还要付欠债和卖价的差额。如果是lender “forgives” the debt, 就叫做debt forgiveness. 那要小心了, IRS出现了,IRS会把整个debt forgiveness的数额作为你的收入上税。 具体的要问你的CPA for tax advice。
Monday, August 20, 2007
Rancho Bernardo, CA Market Update for July 2007
Here are the latest real estate market statistics for Rancho Bernardo, CA area. These numbers represent single family home (SFR) sales only. Percentage of homes on the market with the asking price had been reduced: 41.5%*
Asking Price 六月$640,000 七月$696,158 增长8.8%
Sales Price 六月$633,711 七月$682,365 增长7.7%
$/SQFT 六月$309 七月$319 增长3.2%
Days on Market 六月50 七月60 增长20.0%
Total Transactions 六月120 七月140 增长16.7%
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Monday, July 23, 2007
一个房托07年7月的文章
加州人一问欧洲,亚洲的油价,再考虑到购买力因素和收入因素,
湾区房价从数字上来看是比较贵,但是数字是相对的。
湾区再贵,能贵过NYC Uptown 的哪怕是70年旧的Condo么?
再贵,能贵过Hawaii海边房子么?(上次去MAUI,
Million, 而在Honolulu离Waikiki还有一大段路的Condo
几年前就开价70万,而当时Mission San Jose比那里大得多的Single Family House才要60多万)
贵?能贵过北京什刹海四合院?
再往回看,20多年前,父母一个月工资50-100人民币,
看看北京五环外的城乡接合部的业主们,
这个比例换到湾区,就是说月薪5000美刀(年薪6万)
好地方总有人趋之若鹜,有钱人总是越来越多,所以不是地方不好,
再如东京,巴黎,伦敦,房价贵不是这几年的事情,
就像山西矿主发财了,集体进京买别墅,买房子,那房价能不贵么?
所以不是湾区房价贵,
但是好地方先被人占了,人类还是聪明的,
South Carolina,最后才开发加州吧?
地少人多,供不应求,房价自然要反映这个事实。
所以还是我们挣的少。一个例子:比如湾区的Fremont,
Leandro,Oakland,再往湾区以外移,甚至到外州,
---因为老中那几年凭任劳任怨的苦干,
可是这两年,同一地区把房价炒高的多是老印,
再过几年,也许老印也不灵了,出来一堆纳米人才,金融人才,
所以湾区这么好的地方,房价并不贵,
所以根本还是本身工作专业与收入和房价的矛盾,老中,
我见到有些冒险精神的老中,或者特别灵活的老中,
湾区是个好地方,房价高么?也许,但我觉得他值这个价,
另:我个人观点,如果除了湾区,北美我还会选择到哪里生活居住?
南加-OrangeCounty,离LA中心不远,
Diego, 因为对老中来说还是寂寞了些,保守了些,中国人也少,中餐馆少,
Van Couver-CANADA,不错,就是气候凉一些,
Austin-Texas, 还可以,但是还是小城市,很多娱乐,购物的机会都少,
其余的很多地方,要么气候不好,要么治安不好,要么排外,
如果有人问我?如果你今年才毕业,要不要到湾区来?答案--
那么也许我会摸摸自己的钱包,然后琢磨如何转行,
人总是不满足的,所以我们才跑到这里来。20-30年前,
10几年前,大家发现金钱财富更有吸引力,
不来湾区,也许觉得自己已经混得不错了,满足感一来,
所以我觉得湾区房子还会涨,地没了,就紧凑些,紧凑都没地了,
Francisco买房置地,而且要几千几千的招人。
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Room addition
http://www.kuraoka.org/addition.html#room%20addition
This article is full with details about the whole process of adding a room, lots of pictures too. Hope it helps.
Friday, June 29, 2007
购买新房
1. 选地选地
我知道的要注意这么几点: 安静, 朝向, 隐私, 土质, 如果造地下室的话, 还有地下水位。 比如说, 后院朝街的地隐私相对不好。 有的城市征收街道清扫费,那么拐角的地就要付较多的街道清扫费。 填埋的地基, 尤其是垃圾土填埋的地基, 就不太好。 我们这里, 每块地都有相应的建筑规范, 比如上面可以建的房子不能超过多高, 必须什么颜色什么形状, 看中地以后就去市政索要建筑规范, 如果建筑规范和心目中想要的房子有冲突, 那就要取舍一下了。 另外如果已经有邻居入住的话, 最好能拜访一下, 聊聊天, 能更多了解一些情况。
2. 选好了地以后, 就要规划一下, 房子建在哪里, 车库在哪里等等, 花园整体布局如何。这一步其实非常重要, 也是我目前最大的遗憾。 当时心软了一下, 让LD作了主,导致我们没有办法建双车库。
3. 选建筑公司, 选房型。 如果可以自由选建筑公司的话, 先在附近的新区转转, 看看别人选的是什么公司, 问问效果如何。 广告多,规模大的不一定就是好公司, 很多大公司反应慢, 态度不好。 选了好公司, 可以减少很多头疼扯皮。 我们选的是本地一家小公司, 但是口碑很好, 在我们小区有很多工程, 我们也很满意。 至于房子设计, 我个人认为比较重要的是:厨房要大, 尤其主妇, 简直在家就是在厨房了。 车库有门直接进房子, 最好是在储物间。 进门的门厅要敞亮, 为此我们设计了High ceiling+天窗, 感觉很好, 就是天窗不好擦。 :) 如果你不打算更新现有家具的话,设计房间的时候还有考虑一下家具的摆放。
4. 预算要做好超预算, 而且超得很多的心理准备。建房过程当中会冒出很多想也没想到的需要另外加钱的地方, 即使你已经作了很多功课。
5. 最后一点如果你不是单身一人, 而是夫妇俩共同建房, 而且你不是家庭绝对权威的话, 那么一定要记住, 建房是为了让生活更幸福, 家庭生活和夫妻感情比房子重要。房间大小颜色, 楼梯材料形状并不是那么重要, 即使你觉得很重要极其重要, 也不值得吵架。建房过程中可能会有很多伤感情的事情和话语, 要有心理准备。
Monday, June 25, 2007
一个新的new construction
建筑商是kb home. 这家不错, 经常走高档路线。 这个小区也不例外,起价都90万以上了。地点不错,view超好! 周六计划看一下再来汇报一下。
Thursday, June 14, 2007
圣地亚哥分区介绍之一: Carmel Valley
Carmel Valley相对来讲家庭结构组成比较年轻。吸引他们的是良好整齐的环境还有好的学校.
Carmel Valley说起来很大, 但是其实就分3个区, 一个是Torrey Hill, 是CV的高处山上一个非常大而平坦的高地。 一个是Ashley Fall & Del Mar Highlands, 是山下的大面积平地。 最后就是新开发的 Pacific Highland Ranch, 全部是新房, 在Carmel Valley的最东和最北区。 每个区里面又有自己的几个小学。但是高中和初中就都合并在一起了。 现在高中有2个
Thursday, May 10, 2007
New home prices track Pacific Highland
Arabella: (140 homes)
Plan 1: 3bds 2007 sf 739k --- 772k
Plan2: 3bds 2056 sf 761k --- 805k
Plan3: 4bds 2453 sf 815k --- 826k (sold out)
avg. lot size 4500 sf.
CFD fee (Community facilities district)
Del mar 136 per month + San Dieguito Union High 85 per month = total 221 /Month
HOA 205/Month
Santa Rosa: (123 homes)
Plan1 2961 sf 970k
Plan2 3187 sf 1019k
Plan3 3622 sf 1069k
HOA 35 + 150 (two HOAs)
Avg. log 6000 sf
CFD: Solana beach 300 per month + San Dieguito Union High 85 per month = 385 /Month
Thursday, April 26, 2007
San Diego Zip codes List
Alpine 91901, 91903
Bonita 91902
Bonsall 92003
Borrego Springs 92004
Campo 91906
Camp Pendelton 92055
Cardiff-by-the-Sea 92007
Carlsbad 92008-92009, 92013, 92018
Chula Vista 91909-91915, 91921
Coronado 92118, 92178
Del Mar 92014
Dulzura 91917
El Cajon 92019-92022, 92090
Encinitas 92023-92024
Escondido 92025-92027, 92029-92030, 92033, 92046
Fallbrook 92028, 92088
Imperial Beach 91932-91933
Jacumba 91934
Jamul 91935
Julian 92030
La Jolla 92037-92039, 92092-92093
La Mesa 91941-91944
Lakeside 92040
Lemon Grove 91945-91946
MCAS Miramar 92145
Mt. Palomar 92060
National City 91950-91951
Ocean Beach 92107
Oceanside 92049, 92051-92052, 92054-92058
Pacific Beach 92109
Pala 92059
Pine Valley 91962
Potrero 91963, 91990
Ramona 92065
Rancho Bernardo 92128
Rancho Santa Fe 92067, 92091
San Diego (communities)
92101-92124, 92126-92140, 92142, 92143, 92145, 92147, 92149, 92150, 92152-92155, 92158-92179, 92182, 92184, 92186, 92187, 92190-92199
San Marcos 92069, 92078-92079, 92096
Santa Ysabel 92070
Santee 92071-92072
San Ysidro 92143, 92173
Solana Beach 92075
Spring Valley 91976-91979
Valley Center 92082
Vista 92083-92085
Warner Springs 92066, 92086
Monday, April 23, 2007
Recent sales of 4s Ranch
I talked with Dawn - the sales lady of Maybeck. She told me that there is no inventory now. She sold the remaining 2 lots from last phase.
EVERGREEN: All phases sold out. Had two confirmed buyers drop out last week. Both were immediately sold: No homes available. Development, including model homes, sold out. Prices of last units sold (Phase 6):
Model 3,002 (sq/ft)
lot 849 (lot size 5,488sq/ft): $718,990
lot 850 (lot size 5,727sq/ft): $725,990
Model 3,342 (sq/ft)
lot 847 (lot size 6,372sq/ft): $796,990
lot 673 (lot size 6,190sq/ft): $830,990
lot 676 (lot size 6,100sq/ft): $828,990
lot 677 (lot size 6,249sq/ft): $831,990
Developer Models (upgraded)Model 3,342 (sq/ft)
lot 680 (lot size 6,645sq/ft): $872,990
Model 3,550 (sq/ft)
lot 679 (lot size 6,120sq/ft): $1,031,990
PIENZA: Had phase 6 of 7 release on Saturday with 7 homes available. By 3:00pm on Saturday 6 of the 7 had sold (75% of Pienza homes now sold).
Prices of 6 homes sold on Saturday: Note: lot sizes unavailable but in general size of Evergreen (i.e. very small at 5500 to 6500sq ft). 1 home available until next phase release. Prices of most recently sold units:
Model 2901 (sq/ft)lot 761: $752,990lot 825: $721,390
Model 3212 (sq/ft)lot 759: $787,490
Model 3365 (sq/ft)lot 760: $783,990lot 828: $751,990
MAYBECK: Phase 3 of 7 release last week. One home available all others sold.
Prices of most recently sold units:
Model "Plan 1 w/suite (i.e. full bed w/bath on ground floor) " 3,172 (sq/ft)lot ??: $766,500
Modle "Plan 2 w/suite" 3,438 (sq/ft)lot ??: $764,990
Model "Plan 3 no suite" 3,252 (sq/ft)lot ??: $731,500
Model "Plan 3 w/suite" 3,700 (sq/ft)lot ??: $779,900
Wednesday, April 4, 2007
805通了!
上上周从805上过隐约看到有电视台的车,好像是州长又来剪彩了。这个在整个加州都是个巨大的project, 上亿上亿的。
开在新的路上就是感觉住在carmel valley真是幸福啊!
Friday, March 2, 2007
Thursday, February 1, 2007
关于4s Ranch的交通
以下是一个senior member的发言: (by the way 此人935 posts in one year, read 64,286 times, Reputation: 127...景仰中...)
There are multiple ways in/out
1. Camino Del Norte East to 15
2. Bernardo Center Drive will connect to Torrey Glen (lies next to Carmel Valley) within weeks
2. Camino Norte through to the other side of Santa Luz
3. Camino North across to Rancho Bernardo Road
I could go on....
Read my other posts, this area is a smoking good deal now for numerous reasons. Once Bernardo Center goes through, the values will increase.
Also, being surrounded by those mountains (Santa Fe) is a plus in my book. Those hills are gorgeous.
Friday, January 26, 2007
The Crosby
Monday, January 1, 2007
Rancho Santa fe
Rooms in owner-occupied houses in Rancho Santa Fe, California: