今日看房： 卡萨布兰卡

Investors' favorite -- across the street from YMCA and very close to the school. Easy access to freeways.

Too bad that this one is next to the busy street.

今日看房：MANZANITA TRAIL

期待已久的MANZANITA TRAIL的楼盘终于出来了。 一共4个model. 第一和第二是侧院，价格在70万上下。 3和4比较大，80多万。

第一期出来很快就全部卖掉了。

第二期很快就会出来。

一共会建147家。

Sales lady是我13年前的老相识。 今天去聊了一会，了解点信息，看看样板房。 印象如下：

Model1: 楼上2个卧室都是门斜开的。 感觉比较局促。

Model2: 基本上还好。 感觉对于价格来讲比较值。

拍了一些照片

1和2的院子全部是南向的。 看来设计师还比较有sense.

Model3: 我的fav. 感觉flow比较清楚， 房间也好用。

Model4: 高厅那里有些怪。 不觉得有3000多尺。 5个洞看着别扭。不过要说的是3218sf 只卖80多万。 所以这个plan卖的最快。一release全部被买走。

见图：http://www.pardeehomes.com/pacific_highlands_ranch/manzanita_trail/

HOA about 190 a month. MR is about 336 a month for plan 3. Plan1 and 2 are smaller so the MR is less (around $275). $389 MR for Plan 4.

Another good problem for first time home buyer

As of Thursday, April 2, California home buyers will have a new mortgage protection program.

The qualifications for the new program are:
· Be a first-time home buyer – someone who has not owned a home in the last three years.
· Open escrow April 2, 2009, or later, and close on or before December 31, 2009
. Use a California REALTOR® in the transaction
· Purchase the property in California
· Be a W-2 employee (cannot be self-employed or military personnel)

There are more specific qualifications, terms and conditions are on the Application, which can be found here (pdf document):C.A.R. Housing Affordability Fund Mortgage Protection Program

You should know that funds for this program are limited and "Applications will be reviewed and Insurance Policies will be awarded on a first come, first served basis until Program funds are depleted or until HAF discontinues the Program, whichever occurs first."

今日看房： Miro Circle

Miro is a community located right passing 15 from Mira Mesa Bldv. It closes to freeway yet not too much freeway noise.The houses built in 2001 which is fairly new.




There are townhouses and looks-like-single family houses in the community. Townhouses price ranged about 400K to 500K and about 1100 sf to 1458 sf. Single family (looks like) ones price ranged about 550k to 600k and about 1970 sf.

Chinese mom

大家买房要坚持自己的原则，不要像chinese mom那样爱攀比，看到从前的邻居买了豪宅，自己也要跟风，不要拉抻自己的budget, 多少就是多少。量力而行。

华裔家庭的高中生对这个词的理解和感受是：“中国妈妈”特别爱攀比，人家的孩子去学钢琴，自己的妈妈也要孩子去学钢琴。人家的孩子考上了哈佛、耶鲁，“中国妈妈”就会说，看看人家，你也要考哈佛、耶鲁。总之，在对孩子的教育上，“中国妈妈”永远是以别人为标杆，然后让子女去达成妈妈心中的目标。一些华裔高中生为此与母亲产生矛盾，他们的理由很简单，为什么“中国妈妈”总要比这比那，我是我，我就是我，为什么不能按我自己的情况来设计人生呢。

扯远了。 总而言之，自己吃几碗干饭，最好自己最清楚

Banks Likely to Ramp Up Foreclosures

More borrowers are expected to lose their homes to foreclosure as the nation's largest mortgage companies lift their internal moratoriums on home repossessions and start to determine which troubled borrowers cannot be helped. 

The mortgage companies say the Obama administration's housing plan has given them a better idea of which borrowers they should assist, but their actions could be politically sensitive because some lenders received funds from the federal government's financial stimulus program. 

An increase in foreclosures could lead to a further decline in residential prices and put more pressure on the earnings of banks as they write off troubled loans. 

10 Questions to ask inspector

http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/sfh/insp/inspfaq.cfm

Maybeck in 4S ranch

Phase 5A: I got 3 clients bot in this release. Prices slashed down to low 60s.

Phase 5A Estimated Close of Escrow Late Spring/Early Summer 2009

Plan 1 Berkeley – 2,797 - 3,172 sq. ft.

• Lot 716 $632,990 (1RC) Color Scheme 12

2797 sq. ft., 3 Bedrooms, Den, Loft, 2.5 Baths, Oversized 2-Car Garage

• Lot 719 $632,990 (1B) Color Scheme 9

2797 sq. ft., 3 Bedrooms, Den, Loft, 2.5Baths, Oversized 2-Car Garage

• Lot 732 $677,990 (1RXC) Color Scheme 11

3172 sq. ft., 3 Bedrooms, Den, Loft, 3.5 Baths, Oversized 2-Car Garage & Guest Suite

Plan 2 Bingham - 3,180 – 3,438 sq. ft.

• Lot 715 $662,990 (2B); Color Scheme 7

3180 sq. ft., 3 Bedrooms, Loft, 3.5 Baths, Oversized 2-Car Garage

• Lot 730 $699,990 (2RXD) Color Scheme 2

3438 sq. ft., 3 Bedrooms, Loft, 4.5 Baths, Oversized 2-Car Garage &

Guest Suite

Plan 3 Lawson - 3,252 – 3,700 sq. ft.

• Lot 733 $667,990 (3B) Color Scheme 8-SOLD

3252 sq, ft. 4 Bedrooms, 4.5 Baths, Oversized 3-Car Garage

• Lot 717 $712,990 (3XA) Color Scheme 5

3700 sq. ft., 4 bedrooms, 5.5 Baths, Oversized 3-Car Garage &

Guest Suite

Plan 4 Wallen - 3,481 – 3,525 sq. ft.

• Lot 718 $677,990 (4RC) Color Scheme 11

3525 sq. ft., 4 Bedrooms, Playroom, 4.5 Baths, 3-Car Garage

• Lot 731 $682,990 (4A) Color Scheme 6

3481 sq. ft., 4 Bedrooms, Playroom, 4.5 Baths, 3-Car Garage

• Lot 734 $688,240 (4RA) Color Scheme 5

3481 sq. ft., 4 Bedrooms, Playroom, 4.5 Baths, 2-Car Garage

Phase 5B (close of escrow on Nov/Dec 09)

Phase 5B Estimated Close of Escrow November/December 2009

Plan 1 Berkeley – 2,797 - 3,172 sq. ft.

• Lot 723 $632,990 (1B) Color 9 NOW $604,990

2797 sq. ft., 3 Bedrooms, Den, Loft, 2.5 Baths, Oversized 2-Car Garage

• Lot 726 $632,990 (1RC) Color 11 NOW $609,990 RESERVED

2797 sq. ft., 3 Bedrooms, Den, Loft, 2.5Baths, Oversized 2-Car Garage

• Lot 729 $637,990 (1B) Color 8 NOW $609,990 RESERVED

2797 sq. ft., 3 Bedrooms, Den, Loft, 2.5 Baths, Oversized 2-Car Garage

Plan 2 Bingham - 3,180 – 3,438 sq. ft.

• Lot 722 $657,990 (2RD); Color 1 NOW $629,990

3180 sq. ft., 3 Bedrooms, Loft, 3.5 Baths, Oversized 2-Car Garage

• Lot 725 $699,990 (2D) Color 1 NOW $639,990

3180 sq. ft., 3 Bedrooms, Loft, 3.5 Baths, Oversized 2-Car Garage

Plan 3 Lawson - 3,252 – 3,700 sq. ft.

• Lot 721 $662,990 (3C) Color 11- NOW $634,990 SOLD

3254 sq, ft. 4 Bedrooms, 4.5 Baths, Oversized 3-Car Garage

• Lot 728 $667,990 (3RC) Color 10 - NOW $639,990 SOLD

3254 sq. ft., 4 bedrooms, 4.5 Baths, Oversized 3-Car Garage

Plan 4 Wallen - 3,481 – 3,525 sq. ft.

• Lot 720 $677,990 (4RD) Color 2 NOW $649,990

3481 sq. ft., 4 Bedrooms, Playroom, 4.5 Baths, 3-Car Garage

• Lot 724 $687,990 (4RA) Color 6 NOW $659,990

3481 sq. ft., 4 Bedrooms, Playroom, 4.5 Baths, 3-Car Garage

• Lot 727 $683,240 (4A) Color 3 NOW $654,990

3481 sq. ft., 4 Bedrooms, Playroom, 4.5 Baths, 3-Car Garage

周一的local 新闻一则

Cardinal Health本周一lay off了 200.

The closely watched Case-Shiller index, which tracks prices across twenty major cities, shows that through January the crash of house prices was getting worse, not better. 让那些分析家们说着了：before it's getting better, it will get worse. 

The crash has really spread, too. Minneapolis is down 20% and Chicago 16%. San Francisco, which had held up pretty well, has now turned in spectacular fashion. Prices there have fallen 32% in the past year, worse even than San Diego or Los Angeles.

看到了吧， Even than San Diego...

Certainly there are great deals out there. It is a buyer's market. The aggressive and opportunistic can probably find the worthwhile bargains. 这个呢，我有证明，最近work on 的都是给了比较low 的offer, 但是卖主还是很卖力的一次一次的counter. 

Is there a bullish scenario for house prices? Sure. If all the government spending to turn around the economy reignites inflation in a year or two—as some predict—house prices could begin climbing again. But if the current price deflation continues, look for house prices to keep dropping.

Home mortgage rates dropped to a 52-year low this week

The Federal Reserve said that it would buy an additional $750 billion in mortgage-backed securities and $300 billion of long-term Treasurys. The so called "quantitative easing" policy essentially increases the money supply and is designed to push interest rates down, making borrowing cheaper.

Not much further to drop: Analysts say that while mortgage rates could edge a smidgen lower, they won't make any more dramatic plunges.

什么时候是买房子的最好时机BY围观生活

俺友老尤买房这事情，已经变成爱好，又变成事业了。 九十年代初，经济不好，也不耽误他在弯曲找到工作。老尤一分析，房价还有掉的可能，八九年刚经过地震，弄不好还有内伤，好区的房子动不动就上三十万也不是小数。现在PC已经饱和，没有新技术出现，高科技正被日本和亚洲四小追赶，很不看好硅谷。美国国债从80年的800亿，到现在的2千亿，要出问题。 一晃过了两年，经济变好了，老尤开始看房了，房价也开始长了，老尤有耐心，每周末去看房，说要多看，熟能生巧。几年看了一百多个，耗尽地产经纪N多个后， 他说：“我现在看高价位的房子了，好区五六十万的。” 我：“牛啊，品位钱包上段位了。” 他有些郁闷：“唉，唯一不同的就是价位，这两年一直看相同的房子。” 这时候正逢网络革命，硅谷多了十几万工作，房子盖的远赶不上工作增长。 又一晃到了98年，亚洲金融风暴，老尤说：硅谷房价必跌无疑。房价果然不升了，看着像快跌了。只是停了几个月，在老尤”倒也! 倒也!”的呼声中又攀升了，这一升就升到了科技大泡泡时代，好区房子奔百八十万去了，那时候人人都趁钱，85%买房都拍现金。 硅谷那些年光老印一年就乌央乌央的来几万，公寓爆满，又把旅馆爆满，来谷里出差的还得去几十分钟外的黑人区找按小时收钱的旅馆去，和嫖客伎女一起排队等房间，连HOMELESS SHELTER都住着新招来的投身科技革命的进步青年。 老尤说，现在每周末拿着不值那么多钱的股票去抢不值那么多钱的房子，像生活在电影里，TOTALLY SURREAL，超现实。 01年后，科技大革命失败了，九一一来了，房价开始掉了，老中海归了，老印回家找妈妈了。老尤说：跌的时候别买，等到底了，开始回升，曲线呈龙抬头状时，马上进场。现在都外包了，硅谷刘大经纪就帮海归归们卖掉了几十个房子。不但看不到下一波科技革命的迹象，还有吓人的，北加洲在朝鲜大蒲洞导弹的射程之内，已被瞄上了，两条地震带还特活跃，不看好硅谷。那时候老尤看着房价慢慢跌，利率快快跌，憧憬着抠底的那一天。 再一晃到了03年，各公司还在擂人呢，房价就不跌了，04年初，老尤经过分析，导出房价已经龙抬头的结论，赶快抄底，放上OFFER。问题是前几年来的那拨上进青年人人枕钱待发，就盼这神清气爽的这一天了，一家伙就抬上去五六万。下一个更斜呼，收了十几个OFFER，一抬就是十万。这时候，说是便宜，可容不得挑选了，闭眼摸都摸不着了，卖房的也不是傻子，一看这架式，把房子收回来囤积居奇了，USA TODAY当年还有报道这回事。 价跌如抽丝，价升如山倒。 老尤爱分析，眼看着经济好了，利率要长了。老尤说：现在我不凑这热闹，利率这样长法，今年年底房价要爆跌下去。 谁知利率越长，人们越争先恐后的去买，生怕低利息的好时候一去不回头了。房价一下高耸入云了。一位朋友说：不知道邻居卖了多少钱，只知道比要价加了一百五十万。 老尤说：不可能了，不可能了，太高了。 还一晃到了08年，这下子房价下跌了，老尤等的比八年抗战，十年动乱的时间都长了。 老尤这时候已经成了久病成医的买房大师，国债，金融，地缘政治，世界风云变幻和房价的走势的多元关系方程，研究的融会贯通，独孤求败。 老尤说：美国国债太多，如果印钱，通货膨胀，利率大涨，房价必大跌；不印钱，通货紧缩，房价必大跌，没救了。 他预言：股价都掉到96年了，房价有的掉，买房的最佳时机还遥遥无期。 可惜剩下的岁月不够一晃又一晃的了。 什么时候买房最好？ 上帝制造一个个大泡泡幻景又一个个灭掉，一会儿是买主贪婪，卖主恐慌；一会是买主恐慌，卖主贪婪，他老人家看着特解闷。 刚来硅谷时候，老美朋友说：这事儿不能多想，一闭眼就过去了。他六十年代来从俄亥俄洲来硅谷时候，被这里的房价吓了一跳，俄洲好区四万美金的房子，这里的好区居然要卖到六万！他老板对他说：一闭眼就过去了。 买房之房事，眼一闭，一睁，就过去了，嚎。 剩人曰：人算不如天算，天算不如不算。

一个星期三个客户买房

自从加州州政府加上联邦给了tax credit的政策，加之利率回落。 我有三个客户不约而同的在一周内买了新房。 买房的timing真的很重要。除了你是不是能捞到底，你自己的lease是不是要到期了，小孩是不是要上学了，老婆是不是积怨已经积的太多了，父母是不是要来享享天伦了，等等因素。 到天时地利人和自然就买了。 感叹一下。 

Banks Selling Properties in Bulk for Cheap

I read this from North county times:

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Lenders have become so overwhelmed by the foreclosure crisis that they are starting to unload properties in bulk to investor groups at steep discounts.

Investors then flip the properties for a profit without necessarily improving the home.

For example, a unit of Citigroup, the troubled financial giant, sold a foreclosure in Temecula to an Arizona investment firm for $139,000 when comparable homes in the area were selling for $240,000 to $260,000.

The firm listed the home for $249,000, received multiple offers and the property has entered escrow, said Amber Schlieder, the real estate agent who handled the listing.

For the bank, selling in "bulks" can move those properties out of their books quickly. 

Anyway, The way banks selling their REOs is not efficient-- they get low bid when they list the properties with realtors. 

Now, all those homes will eventrully come to marke at some point. Will they force the price to come down or help stablize the price? 

Right now, there are so many agents out there got pissed off when dealing with the banks. All the short sales, bank owns...it's so hard to make a deal happen. I guess in the end, banks might be the only ones who benifit. 

砍价儿

这个市场是买方市场。 大家出价都想着要砍砍价儿。要不这心里难受。 用我一个客户的话说：为什么别人都能买到deal, 我买不着。 以这种心态去买房，出价，到底是开价多少合适？这个显然没有标准答案。 Case by case的分析，你要买的房子，是不是很hot的地区，是不是已经在市场上吊了一段时间了，是不是condition不是很好，还要做一些work, 是不是卖主急于出手，除了这些因素，卖方agent的水平怎么样也是一个变数。

要想给的比较"靠谱“。 就去问你的agent要一个最近几个月甚至1年内同一个地区closed的房子。 看看listing price和sold price的对比，sdlookup之类的网站也都可以查的到。正常情况下， sold price和listing price之比都是在96-98%之间。所以说，如果能砍下来5%已经不错了。

你想，卖方的agent和卖家，如果开价高过市场价，（当然了，这种情况不是说没有）整个就是一个负面陪衬，不是自己给自己过不去吗。 其实很多卖方都还把价钱开稍微的低那么一点点来吸引眼球， 反而会引来multiple offers.

有不少的买家会说，根据XXX的曲线图，今年到年底还要掉10%， 所以我要给10%off的价格。 如果你这么sure房子还要掉10%， 就等他掉了10%再来买，再来进场，今年此时此刻就是这个价钱。 市场始终都是公平的，一切都是由市场决定的。 你要想过分占便宜，你就买不成。为什么在offer上除了价钱，还要写明精确的日期和时间？就是因为timing是房产买卖中极重要的因素。

话说回来，也不是说卖主要多少您就给多少， 我的point是，合情合理的砍价，有技巧的砍。 根据市场而不是感觉的砍。

Another $300B

Fed announced that they will purchase $300B of treasury debt, an additional $750B of agency MBS, and another $100B of agency debt. 

The message is really clear: the Fed will fill the government debt funding gap, targeting long interest rates lower. 2 to 10 year notes will be the first victims of interest rate assault.

Inflation is on the way. Here is my thought-- downturn could be bad for some people. But inflation is bad for all of us. 

The impact to the housing market: Some people would think this is it, the bottom. If the lay offs come to an end.  

Today's financial news

O8豁出去了, treasure要印钱了

印个1Trillion买bond

说反了

应该是Fed reserve印钱买treasury

Linky

mortgage rate还要降

作为一个07年底抄底抄在半山腰的同学客观的说说4S

本文由我朋友，一位才华横溢，厨艺高超，治家有方，远近闻名的美女妈妈撰写 同期买的和比我们晚买的基本上没看到什么forclose的，买在05-07年初peak的确实有一些。目前还有4家builder的房子没有卖完，其中一个builder破产了，当时在建的一批房子眼看就完工了，就差建fence和贴外墙砖了，突然就停工了。当时那几个房子基本都卖出去了，又把deposit check还给了买家，很让人ft。其他三个builder都还只剩最后一两个phase或者正在closeout，基本就算盖完了。08年年底到眼下builder比较aggressive的降了一次价，基本上release出来的房子都很快卖完了，这一批买房的亚裔为主，亚裔存钱的能力还是强啊。萧条的感觉说实在没觉得很明显。4S的两家小学都不错，都是900多分，poway学区的中小学都带full day的pre-school，从三岁开始收，初中oak valley middle school是08年度poway API最好的一所，Del norte high 09年秋季开学，校园建设不错，希望教学质量应该也还不错。 购物比较方便，离carmel mountain的shopping center很近包括costco，4s common center的超市和一般的商店也算比较全了。离大华稍远，开车25-30分钟。搬到这里以后去Mira mesa的越南店多一点。 交通，如果在15附近上班比较方便，上15大约2miles。在5号附近上班的话，早上如果take 56转5号会比较堵。 娱乐，离UCSD离downtown都比较远，年轻人可能不会特别喜欢。不过附近搬来不少中国人，老人孩子交往比较方便，老人来了不会闷。社区气氛，社区的公园比较多，设施比较新，基本步行距离内都有park，学龄小孩子很多。逢年过节社区有不少活动，还挺热闹，这个周末有egg hunt。去年是人山人海，有兴趣的同学可以来凑凑热闹。 缺点也是很明显的，夏天比海边地区要热一些，Lot比过去的老房子要小，过去的两年内确实不如CV抗跌。 有利有弊吧，看自己的需要和承受能力做决定吧。 广大民工affordable且学区说的过去的地方也就那么几个，每个人的喜好和priority不同而已。了解什么对自己最重要是买房的第一步。支持你在合适的时间买自己最喜欢的房子

美国房价仍有下行空间

转自WSJ: Brett Arends

购房者正在焦虑地关注住房市持稳的任何迹象，同样关注的还有那些认为房市是经济关键的人。

最新公布的数据显示形势愈加黯淡。

Case-Shiller住房价格指数追踪美国20个大城市住房价格走势。该指数显示，截至1月份美国住房市场状况未见好转迹象。

即便在价格下跌之后，整体房价与工资相比仍然不便宜。。

整体房价表现已经相当低迷，1月份Case-Shiller房价指数较上年同期下滑了19%。凤凰城房价暴跌了35%，拉斯维加斯32%，迈阿密29%。房价下跌现象也在扩散。明尼阿波利斯房价跌了20%，芝加哥16%。过去房价相当坚挺的旧金山房价如今表现也令人瞩目。该市房价过去一年下挫了32%，跌幅甚至比圣地亚哥和洛杉矶还高。

Case-Shiller数据显示，过去3个月旧金山房价下跌了11%。


美国全国房价还会继续下跌多少？当然没人知道。但历史告诉我们，价格泡沫涨的越高，跌的也就越狠。

那些住房市场的所谓专业人士仍然不肯面对现实。去年年初我曾写道，即便佛罗里达和加利福尼亚的房价已经崩溃，但这些市场房价仍然虚高。

当然，住房市场肯定会有实惠交易。现在可是个买方市场。勇于冒险的人和机会主义者可能会发现物美价廉的交易。

但就住房市场整体来说，形势并不像你希望的那样光明。即便是现在，整体房价也只是回落到2003年底的水平。但当时到那个阶段的时候，住房泡沫已经膨胀得很明显了。要找到泡沫开始前的房价，你必须得回溯到2000年左右，当时整体房价比现在低了三分之一。

的确，抵押贷款利率已经跌到了4.5%-5%，位于 低的水平。但只凭藉这点下结论就太过简单化了。正如许多人所指出的，2003年到2005年的时候，美国利率水平同样处于低位。

那么房价是否会存在回升的可能？当然有。政府为扭转经济投入的所有支出在一到两年内再次引发了通货膨胀，住房价格就可能会开始再次攀升。但如果目前的价格通货紧缩延续下去，房价只会继续下滑。

长期来看，平均房价总是会随着平均盈利亦步亦趋。按这个指标来看，住房市场可能还会有不少下行空间。

同样值得注意的是，上次住房泡沫破灭的时候，市场过了大约八年时间才显现出真正强劲的复苏迹象。而这次的泡沫则要大得多。

4S Ranch新房的最低价

是我的客户买到的。 Chandeclair。 每天都有人跟他说，你买的怎么那么便宜！Listing price is $670K. But we got it for much lower price.

2008 总结for particular markets

广大人民群众喜闻乐见，爱住， 待见儿的区， 那些particular markets, 08年的sales是怎么样的呢？

看图说话（点击图片可以放大）：

新年总结

08年的美国经济一个字就是一个衰啊。 Job cut一波又一波， 银行倒闭一轮接一轮。 政府每次就往里打鸡血， 打一下蹦达2天，又不动了。 又打。 第一次打那会儿蹦达的还欢实， 后来打也不那么见效了。 大势还是往下走， 谁也拽不动。

大跌眼镜的事情太多了。 不一列举。

今年，09年， 还是一样， 看大家有没有工作了， 只要有工作， 房市就会慢慢稳住， 毕竟很多人还是需要房子啊， 况且，租房子也一样的往里扔钱，算来算去， 买家还会逐渐的入市。 新总统会给打入更多更快见效的鸡血也是必要之举。

新年伊始， 卖家眼巴巴的盼望市场回春， 买家苦兮兮的期待市场回落， 大家都在观望着谁也不好预测市场。 房市也好，股市也好，美国的经济到底往何处去。。。

My summery of bank own sales

You have to remember： Bank calls all the shots.

Some terms might be deleted and some terms might be added. You have to review them carefully.

Banks will do both BPOs and appraisale to have a clear idea of how much the propertie really worth.

No low ball offers!

Somecases, bank would pay some escrow and closing fees. But not always.

No TDS, and not all disclosures are provided.

As-is!

What you need to do to get a bank own properties:

• Pre-approval with bank or from lender you planning to use.
• Vefification of funds. Don't wait for the bank request it. Include it anyway.
• Be aggressive with time contingencies. 10 days for inspection is preferred. 7 days is becoming the norm.
• Speed things up...order inspections upon verbal acceptance.

Don't submit low offers, change lender or terms, don't enter seller names on any documents, don't ask for credit or repairs.

这周贷款利率下降到历史低点

最近大家都说贷款的利率下来了，看来Fed 和 Treasure bail out Wall streets 之后，不得不对实体经济下手了，主要就是把housing 的问题想办法解决一下，要不然congress 也不答应。怎么做呢，Fed 说要买500B的Fannie和Freddie的mortgage backed security 和100B两F的债券， rumor 说treasure 要买两Ｆ的债券把３０年固定的利率压到４.５％。最近的利率大跌，基本创下了２０００年来的最低点。前两天confirming 30 yr fixed hit 4.5%, jumbo confirming 30yr fixed hit 5.25%.

这对新购买者来说是好消息。但对现房主来说是亦喜亦悲，主要是这个jumbo confirming 的要求，对 san diego 来说是贷款最高不得高于54.6万。如果80%的loan to value ratio (LTV), 这是说对68.4万以上买入的房主，都需要把 LTV 降到80%一下才能申请的贷款，这就意味着得往里再砸钱。

对新购买者而言，现在很多很不错的房子都在68.4万以下，可以放心贷款。

估计现在到Obama 上台初期，利率只会降不会升了。Fed 的几百B还是可以撑一段的，但长远来看超级通胀的风险始终是存在的。

Adjustble rate mortgage reset schedule

这篇是我对市场上即将要reset利率的房子的数据分析。 因为很难用中文说明白，所以用英文写了。

From the chart, we can see that subprime ARM is getting smaller in percentage in 09 and 10. But there are still significant Prim and Alt-A ARMs. With the hope that "Santa" Obama will give U.S. home owners some big help on reducing mortgage rate, we should see a lot of these ARMs to get refinanced in the coming year. It will be a good news for the housing market.

It is almost concensus that there will be a pickup in transaction volume in next spring, but it might not be able to translate to a pickup in home price. However, for people who need a house to live in, with potentially low interest rate and low home price, next spring is not a bad time to buy.

Click to see bigger image:

Mortgage Rates Take a Big Dip This Week

这个星期rate大降。 很多人纷纷去做refin. 搞得圣地亚哥中国人的最大一家贷款公司的人个个都接电话接到手软！@@

The rate came in at an average of 5.53 percent, down from 5.97 percent the previous week and 5.96 percent a year ago; while 15-year fixed mortgages settled at 5.33 percent compared to 5.74 percent last week and 5.65 percent in the year-earlier period.

Borrowing costs for short-term loans also were lower, with one-year adjustable-rate mortgages dipping to 5.02 percent from 5.18 percent a week ago and 5.46 percent a year ago.

Five-year hybrid ARMs, meanwhile, fell to 5.77 percent from 5.86 percent last week and 5.75 percent during the same period of last year.

Good news?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/03/news/economy/treasury_mortgage_rates/

This is gonna be huge if 4.5% really happens. Back in 2003 the best rate couldn't even compare not mention for jumbo loan!

Is that means the market going to stable? Let's wait and see.

CNN 今天报道，Obama 的团队已经筹划通过大量印钞票

CNN 今天报道，Obama 的团队已经筹划通过大量印钞票 （～2 Trillion)
来源: realtiger

举债来逃出目前的经济危机.

而且是1）不管把赤字搞得多高； 2）不管通货膨胀；3）以救就业为主体 （Democrat agenda),大量注资撑着夕阳工业的Detroit 的三大巨头。4) 看来重新modify homeowners' loans' terms, 即使有大量的fraud 也在所不惜了。

Carmel Valley Phone numbers

Police non-emergency: 858-484-3154 or 619-531-200

SDGE： 800-411-7343
Water Del Mar - 858-755-9354
Water SD - 858-755-7211

Trash:
Waste Mgmt - 760-753-9412
Edco - 760-436-4151
SD refuse - 858-492-5060

Carmel Valley Library: 858-552-1668
Carmel Valley Rec Center: 858-552-1616
Ocean Air Rec Center: 858-
Rec Center Pool: 858-552-1623

School Districts: Carmel Valley

School Districts:

• Del Mar Union School District
  225 Ninth Street, Del Mar CA 92014-2716
  Voice: (858) 755-9301, Fax: (858) 755-4361
• Solana Beach School District
  309 North Rios Avenue, Solana Beach CA 92075-1298
  Voice: 858.794.7100, Fax: 858.794.7105
  (Solana Beach Foundation for Learning)
• San Dieguito Union High School District
  710 Encinitas Blvd., Encinitas, CA 92024-3357
  Voice: (760) 753-6491, Fax: (760) 635-0591
  (Torrey Pines High School Foundation)
  (Canyon Crest High School Foundation)

Carmel Valley Private Schools

• Bright Horizons 3720 Arroyo Sorrento Rd
  858-509-0419
• The Gifted Preschool2232 Encinitas Blvd.
  760-436-9666
• Kindercare
  3790 Townsgate Drive
  858-794-7710

• Del Mar Hills Nursery School13692 Mango Drive
  858-755-8338
• A Brighter Future Preschool
  Sorrento Valley Road
  858-794-9130

• San Diego Jewish Academy
  Upper School (grades 6-10)
  11860 Carmel Creek Road
  voice (858) 704 3770
  fax (858) 704 3771
  Lower School (grades K-5)
  11860 Carmel Creek Road
  voice (858) 704 3761
  fax (858) 704-3701
• Cathedral Catholic High School
  5555 Del Mar Heights Road
  858-523-4000
• Notre Dame Academy
  pre-school to 8th grade
  4345 Del Mar Trails Road
  858.509.2300
  thesisters@ndasd.org

• Del Mar Pines (grades K-6)
  3975 Torrington Street
  San Diego, CA 92130
  858-481-5615
• La Jolla Country Day
  9490 Genessee Ave
  858-453-3440
• Fairbanks Country Day
  6233 El Apajo
  P.O. Box 8387
  Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067
  858-756-0500
• The Grauer School
  6th to 12th grade
  1500 South El Camino Real
  Encinitas, CA 92024
  (760) 944-6777

Carmel valley Highschools

Torrey Pines High School
3710 Del Mar Heights Road
858-755-0125
(Torrey Pines High School Foundation)


Canyon Crest High School
5951 Village Center Loop Road
858-350-0253
(Canyon Crest High School Foundation)

Carmel Valley Middle Schools

Carmel Valley Middle School
3800 Mykonos Lane
858-481-8221




Earl Warren Junior High
155 Stevens Street, Solana Beach, CA 92075
858-755-1558

Carmel Valley All Elementary Schools

Solana Highlands: 3520 Long Run Drive; Office: 858.794.4300, Fax: 858.794.4350, CDC: 858.794.4377 Carmel Creek: 4210 Carmel Center Road; Office: (858) 794-4400, Fax: (858) 794-4450, Absence: (858) 794-4451, CDC: (858) 794-4477 Solana Pacific: 3901 Townsgate Drive; Office: (858) 794-4500, Fax: (858) 794-4550, CDC: (858) 794-4577, Absence: (858) 794-4551 Ashley Falls: 13030 Ashley Falls Drive; voice 858.259.7812, fax 858.259.1828 Carmel Del Mar: 12345 Carmel Park Drive; voice 858.481.6789, fax 858.481.7418 Del Mar Heights: 13555 Boquita Drive, Del Mar, CA 92014; voice:858.755.9367, fax:858.509.1412 Del Mar Hills: 14085 Mango Drive, Del Mar, CA 92014; voice: 858.755.9763, fax: 858.755.6107 Sage Canyon: 5290 Harvest Run Drive; voice: 858.481.7844, fax: 858.481.7949 Torrey Hills: 10830 Calle Mar de Mariposa; voice: 858.481.4266, fax: 858.481.0344 Sycamore Ridge: 5333 Old Carmel Valley Road; voice: 858-755-1060 Ocean Air: 11444 Canter Heights Drive; voice: 858.481.4040

50 Fun and Free Activities in San Diego

1. Put on your bathing suit, grab your towel and head to one of San Diego's 33 beaches, all open to the public, and perfect for body surfing, boogie boarding, building sandcastles, collecting seashells and basking in the sun.
2. Bring a picnic and listen to Coronado's Summer Concert Series in Spreckels Park on Sunday evenings throughout the summer. On the first and third Sundays of the month, come early and browse the work of San Diego artists during the Coronado Art Association's bi-monthly Art-In-The-Park event.
3. Soak up the international flavor at the House of Pacific Relations in Balboa Park during the freeInternational Cottages' Lawn Programs. A summer-long event, a different country is celebrated each Sunday through ethnic foods, songs and dance.
4. Head to the historic Mission San Luis Rey in Oceanside on June 9 - 10 for the Annual Inter-Tribal Pow Wow. Hosted by the San Luis Rey Luiseno Mission Indians, this event draws tribal members from all over the United States for contest dancing, Native American arts and crafts, games and food.
5. Catch a magnificent Pacific sunset and watch sea lions play along the shoreline at La Jolla Cove, one of the most spectacular natural settings in the world.
6. Visit Seaport Village on weekends for free entertainment and hours of leisurely strolling and window shopping. Guests can also walk along the bay-front or sit in the grass and gaze at passing yachts and ships along picturesque San Diego Bay.
7. Listen to live bands lined along the 26.2-mile route of the Rock 'n' Roll Marathon on June 3. The course begins in Balboa Park, runs through various popular locations around the city and ends at SeaWorld San Diego. Visitors can also stop by the marathon's free Health and Fitness Expo on June 1-2 at the San Diego Convention Center.
8. Stroll through the 16½-block historic Gaslamp Quarter in downtown San Diego. Once the stomping grounds of the legendary Wyatt Earp, the Gaslamp Quarter is now home to unique stores and numerous restaurants, nightclubs and bars, many of which are set in turn-of-the-century Victorian architecture.
9. Check out the La Mesa Car Show along La Mesa Boulevard in the village of La Mesa every Thursday night during June through August. In addition to vintage cars on display, guests can enjoy shopping, dining and live music.
10. Take free fly-fishing lessons from the San Diego Fly Fishers club on Sunday mornings from 9:00 a.m. - 1:00 p.m. at Lake Murray, located in La Mesa. If you don't have your own gear, arrive early for a free equipment loan.
11. Sample some of the more than 200 varieties of fresh produce grown in San Diego at one of the region's many Farmers' Markets, held daily at locations throughout the county.
12. Enjoy free organ concerts during the Annual International Summer Organ Festival at Spreckels Organ Pavilion in Balboa Park. Concerts are held on Monday evenings at 7:30 p.m. from June 25 - August 27.
13. Bike, walk or jog along Mission Bay Park's many trails. Bikers, walkers and joggers share more than 20 miles of scenic paths winding through sunlight and shade near the shoreline with workout courses at planned stations along the route.
14. Attend the 33rd Annual Ocean Beach Street Fair & Chili Cook-off on June 23, featuring more than 200 vendors, local artists, food, a children's area and entertainment on five stages.
15. Rollerblade, skateboard, bicycle or people watch along the Mission Beach and Pacific Beach Boardwalk, a scenic three-mile boardwalk running along the coastline of these lively neighborhoods.
16. Stargaze on the first Wednesday of every month from the Reuben H. Fleet Science Center in Balboa Park during "Gazin' with the Experts." Members of the San Diego Astronomy Association set up huge telescopes and offer guests a great view of the moon, planets and brighter stars.
17. Join the festivities at San Diego's many Fourth of July celebrations, held in numerous communities throughout the county. Coronado's popular Independence Day Celebration on July 4 features a two-hour parade followed by a family concert in Spreckels Park and spectacular fireworks over Glorietta Bay. The Port of San Diego celebrates with the Big Bay Boom fireworks extravaganza over San Diego Bay, the largest fireworks display in the county.
18. Take a scenic drive to Mt. Laguna to hike, bike or picnic while enjoying the fresh mountain air whispering through the pines.
19. Hike the trails of Torrey Pines State Beach and Park and see the rare and elegant Torrey pine trees, a number of animal species and miles of unspoiled beaches below.
20. Visit Mission Trails Regional Park featuring a state-of-the-art Visitors Center where guests explore and learn about the wonders of nature and the native people who once lived on the land. The park also offers over 40 miles of natural and developed hiking and biking trails.
21. Go scuba diving or snorkeling off San Diego's shores to see spectacular creatures of the sea. La Jolla Shores and Cove offer some of the clearest waters on the California coast, as well as miles of protected underwater preserve to explore.
22. Watch the 59th Annual World Championship Over-the-Line Tournament, San Diego's original boisterous beach softball event, during July 14 - 15 and July 21 - 22 at Fiesta Island on Mission Bay.
23. Walk along the downtown Embarcadero and view impressive public art sculptures, tributes and memorials set along San Diego Bay. The artworks celebrate San Diego's international ties, cultural diversity, military significance and unique oceanfront environment.
24. Join San Diegans in a local natural phenomenon, the grunion run, on warm summer nights when the tide is high and the moon is full. Guests can witness thousands of small grunion fish swimming ashore to mate and bury their eggs in the sand before riding the waves back out to sea.
25. Watch tail-waggin', Frisbee-catchin' and stick-fetchin' dogs splash in the surf. Man's best friend is permitted to roam leash-free at all hours of the day on designated dog beaches in Ocean Beach,Coronado and Del Mar.
26. Join the festivities of the annual San Diego LGBT Pride Parade and Festival, one of the most popular events of its kind in the country. Free festivities include a mile-long parade through Hillcrest on July 21, beginning at 11:00 a.m.
27. Celebrate the discovery of gold in the East County mountain community of Julian during theJulian Gold Rush Days, June 9-10, beginning at 10:00 a.m. The weekend includes gold panning, gold mine tours, face painting, historic skits and more.
28. Check out the local craft beer scene during free, daily brewery tours at Stone Brewing Companyin Escondido. Beer lovers can go behind the scenes and sample several microbrews from one of the world's top breweries.
29. Hang 10 at the California Surf Museum, which houses a permanent collection of historic boards, photographs and videos on Highway 101 in Oceanside. During free admission day on Tuesdays, visitors can explore its colorful and educational display on the sport of surfing and the legends who braved the waters over generations.
30. Take a walk through Balboa Park, the largest urban cultural park in the United States, and discover its beautiful Spanish Colonial-Revival architecture and glorious gardens. Also, visitors can take advantage of the Park's variety of other free offerings, including ranger-led walking tours at 11:00 a.m. on Tuesdays and Sundays.
31. Dance along Fifth Avenue during the annual Hillcrest Cityfest Street Fair on August 12 featuring crafts, food booths, three entertainment stages and beer gardens.
32. Gather friends, family and firewood for a cozy beach bonfire at one of San Diego County's bonfire-friendly beaches, located in Coronado, Ocean Beach, Oceanside, Mission Beach and Pacific Beach.
33. Go on a self-guided walking tour of The Stuart Collection, a display of contemporary sculptures scattered throughout the University of California, San Diego campus in La Jolla. Tour maps are available at the Gilman Drive campus entrance.
34. Spend the afternoon at Tidelands Park in Coronado. The park's 22 bayfront acres feature four baseball fields, a playground, skatepark, picnic tables, small beach with an exercise course, boat access, fishing pier and bike and pedestrian paths.
35. Explore the clear shallow tidepools of La Jolla Cove and Point Loma when the tide is low and the pools are teeming with aquatic life.
36. Visit Julian in San Diego's East County and enjoy this quaint, historic mining town that grew into San Diego County's second largest urban center during the Southern California gold rush of 1869.
37. Take a drive to the top of Mt. Soledad in La Jolla, home of the Mt. Soledad Veterans War Memorial, for breathtaking, 360-degree views of San Diego. Spectacular views also await at the top of Mt. Helix in La Mesa, offering visitors a birds-eye glimpse of San Diego's East County communities.
38. Experience the history of the local Hispanic community's struggles and triumphs with a visit to theChicano Park Murals, established by activists in 1970. This cultural park has received international recognition as a major public art site for its commanding mural paintings set underneath the San Diego-Coronado Bridge. Some of the murals narrate the history of Barrio Logan where the park is located.
39. Take in the action as fun-loving canines brave the waves during the 7th Annual Loews Coronado Bay Resort Surf Dog Competition on June 16 in Imperial Beach.
40. Witness the living legacy of California's birthplace in Old Town State Historic Park, San Diego's first "downtown." The six-block park features 12 acres of Mexican lore and historical sites presented in shops, restaurants, museums and several carefully preserved or restored adobe and wooden buildings.
41. Visit the U.S. Olympic Training Center, the nation's first warm-weather, year-round Olympic training facility, located in Chula Vista. Free guided tours of the 150-acre lakefront facility are offered at 11:00 a.m. on Saturday; tours begin at the Copley Visitor Center. Self-guided tours are also available Mondays-Saturdays - 9:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m.
42. Take advantage of San Diego's warm summer nights and enjoy a number of free summer concerts held throughout the county.
43. Explore the mediation gardens of the Self-Realization Fellowship Ashram Center in Encinitas. It is here that Paramahansa Yogananda, one of the preeminent spiritual figures of our time, wrote his "Autobiography of a Yogi." The meditation gardens are open to the public Tuesdays-Sundays - 12:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m.
44. Walk 1,942 feet along the Oceanside Municipal Pier, the longest wooden pier on the U.S. West Coast. The pier is a perfect setting for fishing, walking and wave watching.
45. Browse through the Ocean Beach Antique District, located along Newport Avenue in Ocean Beach, offering the largest concentration of antique and collectible dealers in San Diego County. Here, guests can find one-of-a-kind antiques, mid-century modern furniture, fine estate sale items, vintage jewelry and specialty memorabilia.
46. Listen to the rhythmic sounds of jazz during the TGIF Jazz in the Parks concert series in Carlsbad. Concerts take place at Stagecoach Community Park, Poinsettia Community Park and Calavera Hills Community Park during June through August.
47. Celebrate summer with art, food and music during the Fiesta Del Sol summer music festival, June 2-3, at Fletcher Cove Park in Solana Beach. Guests can enjoy live performances, an international food court, beer garden and activities for the kids.
48. Walk along the Batiquitos Lagoon in Carlsbad and look for birds, insects, plants, fish and animals in one of the few remaining tidal wetlands on the Southern California coast. The nature reserve is open Monday-Friday - 9:00 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. and Saturdays-Sundays - 9:00 a.m. - 3:00 p.m.
49. Have fun during the Festival of the Bells, July 13 - 15, the anniversary celebration of Mission San Diego de Alcalá, the first of California's 21 missions. Guests can celebrate the beginning of Christianity in the western United States with food, entertainment, dance and traditional activities like the blessing of the bells.
50. Experience the monthly Ray at Night art walk in San Diego's North Park neighborhood, featuring art, live music and fresh food. Guests can stroll through 15 galleries and business venues displaying new and current works by local and nationally known artists. The event is held from 6:00 - 10:00 p.m. on the second Saturday of every month.

Glorious sunshine, warm breezes and beautiful beaches are calling from San Diego, and we're inviting you to answer the call. Add some spring to your step and plan a visit to San Diego where the sun shines year-round!